It's time for a question that has fast become a perennial bugbear: should there be more high-class races, or even Group races, on the dirt?
Adding races is easier said than done, but perhaps there is a handicapping solution out of left field that softens the blow for dirt-trackers that have run out of options at home.
For the race fan more predisposed to the romance of racing, more so than the pursuit of the next winner for monetary gain, a variety of events on all surfaces would be welcomed – even if it meant an occasional small field and events with less-than-inspiring betting handle.
This isn't a discussion many would have predicted to happen a few years ago. Who would have thought, Sha Tin as the breeding ground for the next wave of dirt track superstars?
That's how it has started to look over the past two years, though, and now Gun Pit – unbeaten in eight starts on dirt at Sha Tin and with no races left to compete in – takes his show on the road to Japan on Sunday and Rich Tapestry prepares to have his first start at home since April 2014 when he lines up on international day.
It certainly seems a strange predicament, but Sha Tin has thrown up its share of specialists in the past, and now it seems there has always been a batch of dirt track stars waiting to be discovered.
If Gun Pit is successful at Chukyo in the Group One Champions Cup, formerly the Japan Cup Dirt, trainer Caspar Fownes could be plotting the same sort of ambitious campaign on which Michael Chang Chun-wai has embarked with groundbreaking, globetrotting sprinter Rich Tapestry.
He, of course, won the Grade One Santa Anita Sprint Championship in October last year, but even before that Chang's horse hadn't raced at home for more than five months.
And when Rich Tapestry contests next weekend’s Longines Hong Kong Sprint it will have been more than 18 months since he stepped foot on Sha Tin's turf course for a race.
Gun Pit could head for as many as three runs in Dubai, and who knows, he may even end up in the world's richest race, the US$10 million (HK$77.5 million) Dubai World Cup.
If he competes well in Dubai it'll be off to the ol' US of A, presumably for more dirt and a crack at the Breeders' Cup Mile. Then start the cycle again – Japan-Dubai-USA, rinse and repeat.
The way Super Jockey, a narrow runner-up to American sprinter Secret Circle in the US$2 million (HK$15.5 million) Golden Shaheen earlier this year, ran on turf in the Group Two Jockey Club Sprint, trainer Tony Millard will be now thinking of a similar travel schedule for his sprinter.
It's unfortunate for the owners who would love to see their horses competing at home and will have to spend big on flights if they want to compete in Japan or America.
In the past, dirt specialists like Dynamic Blitz or Lord Sinclair were labelled “freaks” but the emergence of so many talented non-turf performers from Sha Tin and the way the form has stacked up indicates this latest generation are more than just statistical outliers.
Even Sunday's Class Three winner Fabulous One, a horse headed to Class One in a hurry, looks a sure bet to be a machine on the dirt, having trialled well on the surface and being by noted dirt sire Elusive City.
This unexpected development of having a batch of world-class dirt horses emerge almost by accident – I mean, no one sets out to buy a “dirt horse” – has caused just another programming headache for the Jockey Club. The club faces the challenge of servicing a group of increasingly talented horses with a limited number of races.
One of the strengths of Hong Kong racing is that customers are kept hungry with a limit of around 780 local races on 83 race days each season, with two meetings per week and a generous, if ever-dwindling, off-season.
It means anticipation remains high even during “down times” – there's no chance of the saturation wall-to-wall scheduling provides in other jurisdictions.
The next race starts for Gun Pit and Rich Tapestry, respectively, illustrate the two ends of the dirt race conundrum for Hong Kong.
The good: gaining recognition of its equine talent overseas – officials will no doubt applaud if Gun Pit adds to the list of overseas Group One winners.
The bad (and the by-product of this success on foreign shores): the headache it causes for trainers, owners and officials at home, where course specialists can quickly run out of races for their horses because of inflated ratings.
Unfortunately there are no easy answers – and so, to the possible solution we mentioned.
Dual ratings for dirt and turf would be messy and complicated, but maybe once a horse hits 100 it could have a split rating.
For instance, Gun Pit, now rated 121 because of his wins on the dirt, but now rendered uncompetitive on turf, could come back and compete in Class Two on the grass off a mark of 100, a rating that could be then readjusted – and probably would be, given the last time he managed to win on turf was in Class Four, although he ran well off a mark of 90.
There are no free kicks for any horse once they reach triple figures, and dual ratings might just get a few horses out of their boxes and bolster field sizes at the same time.
As much as a dirt invitational as a sidelight to the internationals would be fun, adding more Group races isn't that simple. The Jockey Club have just 35, 11 of them with international Group One status.
Last year the club even removed the only 1,000m Group One race from the programme, or at least changed it to 1,200m, with the Centenary Sprint Cup now staged over the longer trip.
The justification was, “We can't cater for everybody”. By that logic, then, even the two 2,400m Group races at the end of the season could come under fire.
The question of dirt races comes down to who the club wants to serve more – its members, the owners, or customers (i.e. punters). And these days turnover is king.
This is the reality: if turnover was as high for dirt races, there would be no talk of Hong Kong being a “turf jurisdiction” and the emphasis would shift to dirt racing.
Heaven forbid, racecourse manager John Ridley might even have to blockade his beloved course proper through fear of it being bulldozed to create another dirt track.
Ridley needn't worry, though. At the last Sha Tin all-dirt meeting, which featured Gun Pit in a specially convened Class One, the club held HK$1.03b total turnover for eight races, compared to HK$1.13b for the previous Wednesday's meeting at Happy Valley and HK$1.11b for the following fixture at the city track.
Turnover dictating every decision is a surefire way to suck some of the life out of racing, but betting is still the most important metric.
One thing dirt has in its favour, though, is it doesn't wear out, so if there are more races ever added to the calendar, something to keep Hong Kong's most popular horses at home would be welcomed by most – even perhaps the course curators.
Until then, some lateral thinking is required, whether it be dual ratings or another solution, because saying to an owner "too bad" once their horse runs out of races is simply unfair.
