The surprising thing about last week's announcement of the Hong Kong Jockey Club-Chinese Equestrian Association (CEA) partnership and the November meeting in Chengdu was neither the agreement nor the meeting - it was the apparent global indifference after handstands and somersaults have previously accompanied any "phoney" news on racing in China.
All it has taken in the past decade or so has been a whispered hint about how racing was kicking off in Wuhan or Hohhot or wherever; or that Sheikh Mohammed or, later, Coolmore, had shaken a hand somewhere in Tianjin; or how Darley would get things up and running; or that the heretofore unheard of China Jockey Club had Queen Elizabeth's nephew on board as a chief executive or lucky talisman or hood ornament or whatever he was supposed to be - and everyone was breathless with anticipation.
There were stampedes into print in old racing jurisdictions and in some well-regarded publications, too, a rush to tell the world: this was the big one.
Except that they were all phoney. They were trumped-up town-fair sideshows, constructed in a hurry by entrepreneurs without official sanction looking for the main chance and riding their fantasies - wow, if and when betting starts in China, just think how much I'll make if I own a racetrack.
READ MORE: World racing's promised land comes closer
Actually, the word order there is probably backwards - those projects all started with the last proposition.
And that kind of thinking is the reason why, if horse racing is to exist even as a wagerless sport in China, it cannot be allowed to happen in that way.
Last week's story looks more like the big one, but it wasn't exactly a secret.
READ MORE: Chengdu meeting is beginning of world-class racing in China, says Hong Kong Jockey Club chief
Months ago we wrote about the relationship coming together between the Jockey Club and the CEA, about the Chengdu meeting and also about the club's connection with the China Horse Industry Association (we believe there are announcements not too far away on this partnership, too).
Not a secret but certainly the first formal step on the road to real, organised horse racing in China. This was the big one, but unsexy.
Its confirmation was not klaxon-driven by salesmen with dollars in their eyes and the promises of an overnight golden road to a multi-billion dollar China thoroughbred industry with everyone grabbing a piece.
READ MORE: Was Hohhot meeting the dawn of a new era or a new era of false dawns?
Instead it was a statement of assistance and co-operation on the least and fundamental requirements for the horse racing sport and the promises of a long haul to where that sport might start to become recognisable or sustainable.
China has something most older, established racing jurisdictions would love to have - the green field.
In Britain, Europe, the US or Australia, if they could start again from scratch, there would be a great deal about racing that would be different in each but that chance isn't available.
Racing in China has the chance to start with a blank page, a green field and to do it properly, to ensure racing's appeal, integrity and viability. Those chances don't come along often and it is no surprise the mainland authorities, the officially sanctioned ones, would choose Hong Kong Jockey Club as a partner.
No surprise they would choose the Jockey Club in front of some foreign-based monolith and no surprise they would choose the Jockey Club over some fly-by-night local millionaire, who may or may not be of good character, and who may or may not even be around in a year or two.
Privately owned racetracks are a disaster or, at best, one waiting to happen. Allow racing to gain its foothold in China like that, with every track owner greedily holding up hope around the go-ahead for betting - from which the track owner would profit - and there would, literally, be hundreds of new tracks in a year or two.
They would be run in myriad unconnected ways, to different standards, with different styles, rule books, motives and levels of integrity on and off the track.
It would be chaos as a sport. As a subject of wagering, it would be far worse.
If it is to happen properly, mainland racing cannot be permitted to happen any way than the way it began last week.
Sorry, if it doesn't light your fire, Old Racing.
Numbers reveal ship is sailing a steady course
One of our regular features is a look back over each season's betting figures, the performance and profitability of favourites and so on and we didn't quite get around to it as last season drew to a close.
In many aspects, not a lot changed - there was the same number of horses which competed, there were more winners of a race as multiple race winners dropped and there were the continuing signs that the betting market - ie punters collectively - becomes ever sharper.
A slight contraction in the average price of a winner happens each season and the price and success rates of the outright favourite annually reflect more public accuracy.
Over the past two seasons combined, the first favourite has averaged winning very close to 32 per cent of 1,548 races, at an average price of a tick over 3.0, which means they carried a market expectation of 40 per cent winners, once the Jockey Club's take-out percentage is taken into account. It isn't a terrible proposition if you're qualifying for the 10 per cent rebates but it's still a tough market to beat at the top end.
And while we are happy to give credit to both the punters themselves and the Jockey Club - considering how the flow of information is so good and never seems to do anything but get better - there has been another contributing factor which we have brought up before.
The percentage of uncompetitive runners in races keeps rising.
The horses at 100-1 plus spiked to 10.11 per cent five seasons ago then dropped back to 7.7 per cent in 2011-12, but they have risen significantly every year since. In 2013-14, they got to just under 11 per cent of all runners and last season that went to more than 1,100 runners in the 777 races or almost 11.5 per cent of the runners at triple-figure odds. That's disappointing, and speaks to the handicapping of runners.
It also ensures tightening at the top end of betting when you have jockeys like Joao Moreira and Zac Purton riding so well. Moreira has just been crazy, winning races at well over 20 per cent since he arrived and, even in defeat last season, Purton was close to 20 per cent.
Interestingly, if you're a jockey follower, these two were still the ones to back blindly despite commanding the hot rides so often - at a flat bet, Moreira lost you only 6 per cent of your stake and Purton was a loss of only 2.6 per cent.
