Where in the world will Joao Moreira end up?
It seems to be a case of choose your own adventure for the Magic Man who has myriad options to explore, one of which is to just keep on dominating here for however long he chooses.
But it is interesting to wonder where the 31-year-old will be in five years, or even two years, for as inconceivable as it sounds that any one person could grow too big for Hong Kong racing, it does seem possible for the Brazilian.
MORE: RELIVE JOAO MOREIRA'S RECORD SEASON WITH OUR INTERACTIVE INFOGRAPHIC
Moreira's seven-from-20 display in Japan two weekends ago not only had him trending on Twitter in Japan, but it made plenty of people that matter sit up and take notice – and not just in the Land of the Rising Sun.
Three wins at Sha Tin on Sunday has become de riguer – it wasn't like he even had an above average day – and there is a sense that there are other challenges for him to conquer. Now, this weekend, Moreira will don the royal blue silks of Godolphin for the first time, although he did win a race for the operation when randomly allocated the mount on Ahtoug during the 2013 Shergar Cup.
It was less than two years ago, before Moreira had even started tearing this place apart, that rumours were rife he would join Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum's crew as retained rider. At that time, had Moreira been booked in a Group One for the global giant, as he has on Shards in Saturday's Group One Golden Rose, it would have sent the racing Twittersphere into meltdown.
But for some reason, there hasn't been much speculation surrounding the ride for John O'Shea. Maybe that's because Shards is the stable's second elect behind Exosphere – whom first-choice rider James McDonald will ride – or maybe it's just because Moreira has been a familiar face in both Sydney and Melbourne over the past two years and it doesn't seem strange to see him riding there.
McDonald is doing a great job and is only just settling into the role, whereas at the peak of the Joao to Godolphin rumours, it was a less settled roster of jockeys for the "boys in blue" in both hemispheres.
In the space of two weeks Moreira will have worn some of the most famous racing colours in the world – the red, black and yellow of the Yoshida family, the blue, black and yellow of Deep Impact's owner Kaneko Makoto and then the distinctive blue.
In Japan Moreira not only rode for the right owners, he rode winners for four of the top 10 trainers including Naosuke Sugai, handler of last year's highest rated horse Just A Way and Japan's current and delightfully nutty star Gold Ship.
Another big moment: The world racing superstars unite, Joao Moreira meets Turfy ahead of World All-Star Jockeys pic.twitter.com/jF5iuC8NXl
— Michael Cox (@KemblaCoxy) August 29, 2015
Sugai was impressed by Moreira's horsemanship, but don't expect Moreira's calming influence on our favourite headcase Gold Ship in the upcoming big races in Japan.
Unlike Hong Kong, where a gun-for-hire like Christophe Soumillon or Craig Williams can be flown in for the day, a rider must be on contract to ride a Japanese-trained horse in Japan. Moreira will have to be content with riding a Japanese horse if it travels elsewhere, including Sha Tin.
So, what about Joao and Japan? The red carpet would be rolled out by the Japan Racing Association if he chose to ride in Japan on a temporary stint – for either one, two or three months – but it would require a huge effort to obtain a full-time licence. Earlier this year Mirco Demuro and Christophe Lemaire became the first two foreigners to be granted full-time contracts in Japan, but Demuro described the arduous language test “the most difficult thing I have ever done” – and that is coming from a man who has ridden on and off in Japan for the best part of 17 years and seems comfortable enough speaking the language.
One observation from Japan – maybe Moreira isn't even best suited to riding in Hong Kong, a statement that sounds ridiculous on face value, given he just rode 145 winners in a season and all. At Sapporo Moreira's calming horse sense took centre stage as he was confronted with a fractious first-starter, a filly that acted up and didn't allow him to be legged aboard first time around, drawing oohs and ahhs from the big crowd. By the time Moreira had circled the parade ring once, the horse was purring like a kitten.
Now, that's not to say there aren't other good horsemen around, but educating young horses is one of his strengths and Japan is a jurisdiction containing more than its share of Gold Ship-Orfevre equine loonies. Tactics in races aren't as empahsised either – it's more about flow, and that's where Moreira excels. Also standing out was the ability to get horses out of the gates fast and up on the speed, something that every good jockey has to be able to do here, lest be singled out as a "slow starter".
Moreira has also received overtures from the United States, where it seems his fast-jumping, low-crouching style is a perfect fit. Leading agents have been climbing over themselves to secure his services, but the US must just look like too much work for not enough coin from where Moreira sits right now.
For where Moreira is right now has its advantages – even with the pressures inherent with riding here, the demands of owners and trainers and the demanding track work schedule, the bottom line is that he rides twice per week and dominates in a jurisdiction that has the best per-race prizemoney in the world.
And then he takes his pick of overseas big race options.
McDonald can only ride at 119 pounds, so anything under that becomes an option at Godolphin, and that weight advantage could easily result in a couple of nice rides during carnival time, with O'Shea indicating Moreira is prominent in his team's plans.
"We had to put a pattern in place for him to do some riding for us during the spring," O'Shea said to Sydney media on Monday. "We've got multiple group runners in Melbourne and Sydney and there's an opportunity for lighter-weight rides in group 1 races wherever we may need him. But I think there's sufficient enough rides there now and we probably didn't have the firepower last year. There's enough there now to warrant a few rides for Joao."
So maybe as it stands, Moreira gets the best of both worlds, and anything that keeps Moreira based at Sha Tin is good news for the Jockey Club and Hong Kong's race fans, but bad news for his rivals.