It’s that time of year again when Hong Kong racing fans eat too much, drink too much and like the early-season runs of Derby-eligible gallopers too much.

Last term, Beautyverse became the first nominal Derby favourite at Sha Tin on November 6 when he won his Hong Kong debut in Class Two from the outside gate over a 1,600m trip that most students of Australian form thought was shorter than his optimal distance.

Those punters who declared Beautyverse, the artist formerly known as 2022 South Australian Derby hero Jungle Magnate, nailed on to win the 2023 edition of Hong Kong’s most prestigious race looked silly when March 19 rolled around because the Tony Cruz-import exited the gates at 60-1 and passed the post in 12th.

This term, the consensus Derby favourite – no betting market exists either in Hong Kong or overseas – is Ensued after three victories and one luckless eighth in his four starts since he swapped James Fanshawe’s Newmarket yard for John Size’s Sha Tin stable.

Ensued is unlikely to slide far down the Derby power rankings between now and the HK$26 million final leg of this season’s Classic Series trilogy because his performances, including his recent Class Two triumph over the Derby’s course and distance of 2,000m at Sha Tin, have been excellent, he has proven he stays 10 furlongs in a truly run contest, and of course, Hong Kong’s 12-time champion conditioner prepares him.

However, while Ensued and other Derby possibles, such as the Danny Shum Chap-shing pair of Chill Chibi and Helene Feeling, have attracted attention, there’s an Unbelievable prospect coming to hand under Frankie Lor Fu-chuen’s expert eye. Unbelievable is his name, and it’s an apt word to describe his pedigree.

Unbelievable is the new name the ownership group has given to the three-year-old son of American Triple Crown winner Justify and Group One-winning juvenile miler Together Forever, who raced as Bertinelli in Ireland and England for Aidan O’Brien and the lads.

Unbelievable, whose five European appearances resulted in two wins, two seconds and one third – Ryan Moore rode him in his final three starts for O’Brien and friends – is the full brother of City Of Troy, whom British bookmakers are trading as the clear favourite for all three English classics for which he is eligible – the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, the Derby at Epsom and the St Leger at Doncaster.

City Of Troy won all three of his two-year-old races by more than two lengths, including the Group One Dewhurst Stakes (1,400m) at Newmarket, the juvenile event that all-time great Frankel claimed in 2010.

Lor is putting Unbelievable, to whom the Jockey Club has assigned a post-import rating of 80, through his paces at Sha Tin trackwork. The chestnut colt arrived in Hong Kong on September 9, with Lor aiming to get him to the trials early next month. When he does, expect the Derby hype to ramp up several levels.

With one meeting of 2023 left, Lucky Sweynesse (eight wins), Zac Purton (156 wins), and barring a Francis Lui Kin-wai fill-up at Happy Valley on Friday night, Size (73 wins) will be this year’s most successful gallopers, riders and trainers, respectively. Hooray for them.

However, perhaps spare some kind thoughts for the busiest horses. Medic Elite and non-winner Savvy Delight have raced 19 times since January 1, a feat that Happy Angel and Viva A La will match if they take their respective places in Happy Valley events later this week.

Finally, speaking of Viva A La, he is one of more than 20 gallopers who have won races already this season after ending last term with one of the retirees – Richard Gibson, Peter Ho Leung and Tony Millard.

Horses dispersed from Gibson’s yard have won 11 races, with Happy Together scoring three times for Lor as that batch’s only multiple winner. Eight horses from Ho have won a total of 10 races for other handlers, with Jubilation and Splendid Star triumphant twice for Chris So Wai-yin and Douglas Whyte, respectively. Four of Millard’s former horses have won individual races.