The holidays (if you could call them that) are officially over and the 2021-22 Hong Kong racing season is upon us.

There are 88 meetings, 830-odd races and endless possibilities with fortunes to be won and lost.

Predictions are fun, so let’s go fishing and get in the mood for the new term with some (educated) guesses about what might happen.

Golden Sixty to be beaten

After 14 straight wins, two undefeated seasons and four consecutive Group One victories, 2021-22 will sadly be the season that Hong Kong’s one true superstar goes under again.

Golden Sixty’s only career loss came in July 2019 and the six-year-old is only three wins away from equalling Silent Witness’ Hong Kong record of 17 wins on the trot, but even the great Silent Witness could only manage two unblemished campaigns.

While he’s never been a horse to put lengths and lengths on his rivals, Golden Sixty survived some near-misses last season – as well as in the 2020 Derby – and something has to give sooner or later.

Trainer Francis Lui Kin-wai plans to send Golden Sixty into December’s Group One Hong Kong Mile with only one prep run – the Group Two Jockey Club Mile on November 21 – meaning he could be underdone, while it remains to be seen what overseas opposition will descend on Sha Tin.

Then there’s the local brigade – Southern Legend and More Than This went close to toppling the champ last term and the likes of Sky Darci and Healthy Happy should improve.

Finally, Lui says he’s keen to take Golden Sixty abroad for the Group One Yasuda Kinen (1,600m) in Tokyo next June, which is sure to be a serious test.

There wouldn’t be many in Hong Kong racing who don’t want to see the star miler draw level with or even go past Silent Witness’ mark, but whether it happens or not, Golden Sixty will not go through another season unbeaten.

Something has to give in trainers’ ranks

A remarkable six trainers cracked the half-century last season, a record number that seems anything but sustainable even if there were more races than ever in 2020-21.

For that to happen things had to be unusually thin at the bottom end – four trainers notched less than 20 winners – and it seems all but certain some of those at the top will have to regress.

Jockey Zac Purton and trainer David Hayes celebrate a winner.

With David Hayes set to rise up the table – he thinks he’ll double last year’s tally of 32 – and Michael Chang Chun-wai and Peter Ho Leung out to avoid further strikes, the wins have to come from somewhere and the most obvious candidates look like Caspar Fownes, Lui and to a lesser extent Danny Shum Chap-shing.

While Fownes should have another good season, he’ll fall short of his massive haul of 79 last campaign – a career best – while Lui’s golden run of 63 and 61 winners in the past two terms will at the very least suffer a slowdown.

Should only five trainers reach 50 this season, they will be John Size, Frankie Lor Fu-chuen, Tony Cruz, David Hayes and Caspar Fownes – maybe even in that order.

Joao Moreira punches the air on his way to last season’s premiership.

It’ll be the opposite in the jockeys’ room

While it’s easy to see things evening out in the trainers’ premiership, it’s hard to argue the same in the jockeys’ ranks.

Zac Purton and Joao Moreira have been a dominant force across the past eight seasons, winning four premierships apiece, and no one else has come close.

Between them their numbers are ridiculous – only once in the past five seasons has their cumulative output dropped below 270 winners and that was in 2018-19 when Moreira was in Japan for the first three months of the season.

In 2019-20 they shared 34 per cent of all winners and last season it was 33 per cent – remarkable consistency that, with only Luke Ferraris joining the ranks, should continue.

The duo will again ride a third of the winners and it might just be Moreira edging ahead in the premiership count.

David (left) and Luke Ferraris at Sha Tin.

Ferraris Jnr to rejuvenate Ferraris Snr

Speaking of the junior Ferraris, Luke kicks off his Hong Kong career at Sha Tin on Sunday with six rides and two of them are for his father David.

Following the news of his son’s licensing, Ferraris Snr said he would “never ask him to ride something of mine that clearly hasn’t got a chance” and that will be an interesting subplot in itself.

Also intriguing, however, will be the impact Luke’s arrival has on the veteran trainer – who could only manage 17 wins last season.

Had the new trainers’ benchmark been in place – where only two Class Five wins count towards the final tally – the 58-year-old would have received a strike.

That won’t be a problem in 2021-22 though – Luke’s arrival will give David a much-needed boost and ensure he increases his win tally.

The Happy Valley beer garden in all its glory.

The beer garden to reopen

The casual Hong Kong racing fan has been starved of the opportunity to sidle up trackside after work on a Wednesday night for over 18 months now but the signs are positive that the wait may soon be over.

Jockey Club director of racing business and operations Bill Nader would only say last week that it “won’t happen in September”, giving rise to hope that the famed city circuit may be restored to its former glory sooner rather than later.

Before Christmas would be nice, but if not then it will definitely be some time this season.