Roll up, roll up for the “sure win” betting strategy of the century.
No, we’re not an agent for an Asian betting exchange – we’re just trying to help our punting brethren.
The system is called the “Moreira Martingale” – a failsafe method seemingly in operation for more than 18 months right here in Hong Kong. The Moreira Martingale takes all the hard work out of actually studying form and watching race replays.
You do need a form guide, simply to find Moreira’s name and mark down which horses he is riding. Never mind the others.
Here’s how it works. Just bet on Moreira in race one. If he loses, bet on Moreira again in race two, but this time raise the bet to cover the last loss. Repeat until, sure enough, Moreira again goes on a rampaging winning run and you are riding high.
Easy.
And maybe have a saver on Moreira at odds-on in the Jockey Challenge. It seems like he always wins that, even when he barely rides a winner.
This seems to be how the pubic support Moreira, judging by the market reaction to his respective rides in a race. Joao could ride Stripes the zebra from the movie Racing Stripes and they’d still send him out 6-4 favourite. And he would win.
Forget “B1” and blinkers first time. “MM1” – Magic Man first time – should be in the formbook abbreviations.
You can learn a lot on Hong Kong public transport at peak hour: how to squeeze through a train’s rapidly closing doors, Indiana Jones-style, and the judicious but gentle use of elbows as space-clearing devices being just two of the skills we’ve acquired.
Another insight gained last week en route to the races was just how mystical the Magic Man has become in the eyes of the adoring public. Noticing an older lady standing next to us on the bus, scrolling through a tablet on the HKJC betting app, we playfully asked for a “tipsy” – local parlance for a tip.
Then came confirmation that the Moreira Martingale might not be too far removed from reality. “This jockey always wins,” she said, pointing at the Chinese characters 莫雷拉 on the screen . “Mok Lui Lai,” she continued, “you know?”
That name is instantly recognisable to any regular racegoer, even the expats with only rudimentary Cantonese. It is Moreira’s Chinese name, a household name among those clutching form guides in the lead-up to racedays.
Moreira has ridden 94 winners this season if you include his win on the subsequently disqualified Harbour Master – which his loyal followers have long collected anyway, but won’t count in the soon-to-be-rewritten record books.
The beauty of the Moreira Martingale is that if the Brazilian doesn’t win a race, it usually isn’t too long before he wins his next.
Even with a remarkable strike rate closing on one in four, purveyors of the Moreira Martingale were put through the ringer on Sunday at Sha Tin and were looking for short-term loans come race 10 as the local kids tormented their tormentor.
Moreira was relegated to second on five occasions, with a third thrown in for good measure, before finally breaking through in the last aboard Packing Pins. Meanwhile, the local riders had a day out at the expense of the all-conquering rider.
Moreira is no bully – in fact, he has given generously of his time to mentor some younger riders, particularly Keith Yeung Ming-lun. But in the win column, the immediate effect of his arrival early last season was devastating on the mostly local lightweight riders, as the popular newcomer took bookings usually reserved for those weighing less than 118 pounds.
Indeed, the loss of a two-pound claim for locals with more than 250 winners and the Moreira-inspired seismic shift in the landscape looked like being the equivalent of an ice age and asteroid all rolled into one, and threatened to turn the local boys into dinosaurs, or at least endangered species.
But on Sunday the locals hit back – new apprentice Jack Wong Ho-nam grabbed his first win when beating Moreira home, while Derek Leung Ka-chun did the same earlier in the day. Even Alex Lai Hoi-wing got a win, his 10th of the season, and in one race 11 of the 14 runners were piloted by Chinese jockeys.
Leung and Vincent Ho Chak-yiu’s performances this season should be noted, the pair obviously benefiting from off-season stints with foreign stables.
Leung has already equalled his output from last season with 18 wins, while Ho sits in seventh in the jockeys’ championship and represented Hong Kong at the International Jockeys’ Championship at Happy Valley as leading local rider.
Now, back to the Moreira Martingale. In reality, the biggest question mark over the so-called system would be not knowing what odds you are going to get before a race. You need to be some sort of soothsayer to predict starting prices these days, and maybe there should be a market on the market, a prop bet of sorts: “What price will this horse jump?”
Sunday was simple though. Moreira might have been nought for nine going into the last, but with Packing Pins 1.8 and paying much better than bank interest, it was a “sure win” – a case of bet up, and draw even.
And the Magic Man sent everyone home happy.
