- Virologist says risks from reopening border with mainland China are small, as virus is already endemic in Hong Kong
- It would be beneficial if travellers between the mainland and the city were required to show negative PCR test results, he added
People shop in Causeway Bay. Hong Kong is reporting daily Covid caseloads of more than 20,000, but an expert has said the number could be 10 times that. Photo: Edmond SoUp to 200,000 people a day could be infected with Covid-19 in Hong Kong, one health expert said, explaining that the risks from the resumption of quarantine-free travel with mainland China were manageable compared with the city’s massive caseload.
Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), on Monday cited ongoing tests carried out by the institution after the city’s chief secretary earlier said land borders could be reopened as early as January 8 with the mainland lifting most pandemic curbs.
Jin said HKU had been testing 10,000 residents in the city a day, estimating that about 150,000 to 200,000 Hongkongers caught Covid-19 every day – a number outstripping any potential imported infections from the mainland.
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“After such a long time, Covid-19 has become endemic. When dealing with imported cases from the mainland, Hong Kong has a certain level of buffer. It is not a given that mainland travellers will cause a surge in cases,” he said.
“The number of infections will not increase to a large extent … There will be risks but a low-level one that Hong Kong can afford.”
Jin said it would be beneficial to the mainland and Hong Kong if travellers between the two places were required to show negative PCR test results, as this would help intercept imported infections.
He added that mainland arrivals should have three vaccine doses before visiting and that authorities should observe the situation for a week or more after the border reopened before further easing rules.
Hong Kong on Sunday reported 23,361 Covid-19 infections, 326 of which were imported, as well as 62 related deaths. The city’s total tally stood at 2,648,994 cases and 11,869 fatalities.
Chief Secretary Eric Chan Kwok-ki on the same day said the government would set a quota on the number of travellers commuting between Hong Kong and the mainland in the initial stage and increase the capacity of sea, land and air transport to fulfil demand.
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Allen Shi Lop-tak, president of the Chinese Manufacturers’ Association of Hong Kong, on Monday said in the initial stage of border reopening, priority should be given to people with urgent needs, followed by the business sector with a quota of some 5,000 to 6,000 for the industry at first.
“Business operators have not returned to the mainland for a long time. Many of them wish to head back before Lunar New Year to check on factories, issue double pay and hold meetings with employees,” he said.
Shi added that the quota could be increased to 20,000 and in stages to 50,000 or 100,000, but he agreed it should be conducted in a gradual manner.