- Research indicates ‘hazardous’ turbulence is on the rise; in 1979 it totalled 467 hours over the North Atlantic, while in 2020 it was 547 hours
- Reports of deaths due to this phenomenon are extremely rare, but it can still cause injury and increase wear-and-tear on the airframe
Buckle up: severe turbulence is on the rise due to climate change. Photo: Shutterstock Not everyone may have experienced severe turbulence during a flight, but it is on the rise. A study predicts that air passengers are set to face more “hazardous” turbulence in the coming years due to climate change.
Most cases of turbulence are experienced only as a mild shaking in the aircraft and a slight loss of elevation. In rarer, more severe cases, passengers and crew members can be injured.
Especially dangerous is what’s known as “clear air turbulence” since this often occurs without any advanced warning – in other words, without any chance to fasten your seat belt.
According to a 2023 from Reading University in the UK, such turbulence has been increasing over recent decades. In 1979 clear air turbulence totalled 467 hours over the North Atlantic, while in 2020 the figure was 547 hours.
Reports of deaths due to turbulence are extremely rare, but injuries less so. Severe and sudden turbulence is not only a threat to passengers and crew, but also to the planes carrying them. “Every additional minute spent traversing turbulence causes fatigue and increases wear-and-tear on the airframe,” the study authors write.
We asked some experts to explain air turbulence as well as some simple but important rules for passengers to follow.
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There can be different causes, and one major one is the jet stream, says Jens Heider, an aeronautical engineer and pilot with the German aviation and space centre. “These are strong fields of wind in the upper troposphere, 8 to 12 kilometres high and which, depending on the region and season, can vary greatly in strength.” Jet streams emerge from horizontal temperature differences in the atmosphere.
Turbulence can be created in and around thunderstorm areas with their rising warm air and sinking cold air. When possible, pilots try to fly around them.
Topography can also play a role. “Mountain chains can raise the entire air package,” Heider explains. Research shows that the most turbulent air routes are located above mountains.
This is turbulence that can’t be seen with the naked eye, since it is located in cloud-free air. It is caused by the collision of significantly different air masses travelling at very different speeds. Heider says that in technical jargon, these are actually associated with jet streams. “But it’s a question of definition.”
It’s a terrifying moment: The aeroplane suddenly drops. “The plane is flying in an area where all around it, the air is sinking – and so the plane also sinks,” Heider notes.
The wings bend and the fuselage is shaken up. You might think that an aeroplane could break apart in strong turbulence. But Heider is reassuring on this, saying that in view of the strict and extremely security-driven construction regulations for modern planes, it is extremely unlikely.
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“According to everything we know so far about the forces that occur during turbulence, this can even be ruled out,” the aeronautical engineer says.
The weather forecasts that pilots receive while preparing a flight, mean they know where possible turbulence can be expected. But, while thunderstorms and cloud formations with their expected strong winds can often be seen with control systems, this is not always the case with clear-air turbulence. New apps might help in this area.
Pilots are trained in handling turbulence, and they can at any time – even if the plane is on autopilot – intervene manually. Other cockpit crews flying the same air space can then react, and as far as possible and coordinating with air traffic control, try to fly around critical areas.
This can mean flying higher or lower, or even choosing a different route, according to the Federal Association of the German Air Transport Industry.
If pilots are expecting turbulence, they will turn on the fasten seat belts signs. They might also ask the cabin crew to interrupt their service. “If you have flown into turbulence and people are still standing in the aisle, it is too late,” Heider says.
That means that prevention is the best measure for pilots and crew to take – but also passengers. Because turbulence sometimes is heavy and comes without any warning, the general rule is except when getting up to stretch one’s legs or go to the toilet, always to remain seated with the seat belt fastened. Even when the seat belt sign is off.