Dr Zhihua Zheng is a research associate professor and head of the East Asia Marine Policy Project at the Center for Japanese Studies, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He specialises in the law of the sea and marine policy.
Amid South China Sea tensions, Nicholas Burns’ incorrect assertion that the disputed Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal were Philippine territory may reflect US bias at work. This highlights a hardening US stance against China and Beijing’s communication challenges.
By playing the victim and packaging ‘grey zone’ ops as humanitarian resupply missions for fishermen, Manila means to put Beijing on the defensive. What’s uncertain is whether China will respond and, if so, how.
Manila should take note of how Malaysia and Vietnam have managed to make the most of their maritime resources while navigating their territorial disputes with China, and rethink its own approach.
The most likely scenario is that Manila fortifies the deteriorating ship into a permanent military outpost and Beijing retaliates by installing its own
Rather than repeat the military drills sparked by Nancy Pelosi’s visit, Beijing can make official the baselines of Taiwan’s territorial waters, clarifying the scope of China’s sovereignty – and preventing sleepwalking into war.