Zhihua Zheng

Opinion | South China Sea: if pushed, would Beijing build a naval outpost on Second Thomas Shoal too?

The status quo remains unstable but it is unlikely that Manila would add a permanent structure on the disputed reef, or that Beijing would dismantle the beached Philippine warship

The most probable scenario is that Manila fortifies the deteriorating ship into a permanent outpost and Beijing retaliates by installing its own small fixed facility

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Zhihua Zheng

Published: 5:30am, 8 Jan 2024Updated: 7:10am, 8 Jan 2024

Tensions over Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea reached boiling point in 2023, with Manila accusing the Chinese coastguard of using a military-grade laser, a water cannon being fired, and dangerous collisions between Chinese and Philippine vessels, raising concerns about a wider conflict in the region.

The new year has brought no sign of a de-escalation. Since the start of last year, China has noticeably increased its condemnation of the Philippines’ resupply and propaganda activities at Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands.

Meanwhile, dissatisfaction with China’s South China Sea policies and actions seems to be intensifying across various social strata within the Philippines.

Asean is straining to make peace with its recent statement calling for restraint and trust-building; the regional grouping of Southeast Asian nations seems at its wit’s end.

Meanwhile, the United States, Japan, Australia and the European Union have voiced support for the Philippines. There is, however, still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the extent to which the US would intervene, under what circumstances and in what manner.

Where will this dispute lead? What new developments might unfold this year? Can China and the Philippines work towards some kind of tacit understanding and ease tensions?