Opinion

Philippines’ new playbook is a threat to South China Sea peace

By playing the victim and packaging ‘grey zone’ ops as humanitarian resupply missions for fishermen, Manila means to put Beijing on the defensive

What’s uncertain is whether China will respond and, if so, how as policy voices call for the Philippines to be taught a lesson

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A Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources vessel on a mission to resupply fishermen is blocked by a China Coast Guard vessel at Scarborough Shoal on February 15. Photo: AFP

Dr Zheng Zhihua is an associate professor and head of the East Asia Marine Policy Project at the Centre for Japanese Studies, Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

Published: 9:00am, 10 Mar 2024Updated: 12:12pm, 10 Mar 2024

Looking at the Philippines’ recent actions at Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, it is clear the Marcos Jnr administration has adopted a new playbook for the South China Sea.

On the one hand, Manila is following the examples of China and Vietnam by subsidising its fishermen, enabling them to be at the forefront of “grey zone” operations at sea. On the other hand, it is adopting an “assertive transparency” strategy, increasing exposure and even creating opportunities for accidents that Beijing accuses it of staging to gain more international attention and sympathy.

Why is Manila adopting these two approaches and how have they been put into practice? And how might Beijing respond? It is also important to consider the implications of the new developments for peace and stability in the South China Sea. What will all this ultimately lead to?

The reason behind Manila’s new approaches is the significant disparity in maritime law enforcement and naval power between the Philippines and China. Manila lacks the capability to get Beijing to withdraw from disputed areas like Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal.