Opinion

Kevin McCarthy visit? How Beijing can nip the next Taiwan Strait crisis in the bud

Rather than repeat the military drills sparked by Nancy Pelosi’s visit, Beijing can make official the baselines of Taiwan’s territorial waters, clarifying the scope of China’s sovereignty

Only when Beijing and Washington can clearly see each other’s boundaries will they not sleepwalk into war

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A People’s Liberation Army member looks through binoculars during military drills in waters around Taiwan in response to a visit by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on August 5. Taiwan’s frigate Lan Yang is seen in the background. Photo: AP

Dr Zheng Zhihua is an associate professor and head of the East Asia Marine Policy Project at the Centre for Japanese Studies, Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

Published: 1:00am, 29 Dec 2022Updated: 1:49am, 29 Dec 2022

What would happen if Kevin McCarthy, upon becoming Speaker of the US House of Representatives as widely expected, leads an official delegation to Taiwan? Will Beijing tolerate another Speaker’s visit or see it as a new normal? How can Beijing and Washington avoid sleepwalking towards war?

For a start, the Biden administration’s willingness to obstruct McCarthy’s potential visit appears low. US officials have repeatedly said the White House cannot stop the Speaker of the House, whoever that may be, from visiting Taiwan. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, addressing the issue in August, said: “Congress is an independent, coequal branch of government.”

From Beijing’s perspective, this, of course, is a very convenient excuse for Washington – the separation of powers is indeed the reality in the United States. But a Speaker’s visit to Taiwan still requires the cooperation of the executive branch, especially the defence ministry’s in providing military aircraft and other resources, without which the mission is impossible.

Against the backdrop of a serious lack of strategic mutual trust, Beijing’s simplest interpretation of Washington’s intention, if it helped McCarthy’s visit to take place, can only be the further “hollowing out” of the one-China policy.