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Gavekal Dragonomics

Gavekal Dragonomics
The latest new and top stories on Gavekal Dragonomics, a leading independent economic research firm, with offices in Beijing and Hong Kong, specialising in comprehensive analysis of China’s economy, politics and social issues. It provides in-depth research reports, data services and briefings to financial institutions, institutional investors and corporate clients globally. Known for its rigorous macroeconomic and sectoral data analysis, including insights on China’s consumption trends and the impact of government subsidies, its overall focus is on understanding long-term developments shaping China and its global economic relations.
A guard stands at attention outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. China has enacted a sweeping overseas investment law. Photo: TNS
China exports

Beijing asserts control over China’s offshore tech transfers with landmark law

Beijing’s ‘milestone’ mandate seen authorising retaliatory responses to trade barriers while restricting research leaks.

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2026 Xi-Trump summits

Trump’s cadre of CEOs hunts for wins in China, from soybeans to semiconductors

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Venture capital market

China’s state-led venture capital revival risks losing momentum

China's economic recovery

As Chinese provinces slash revenue outlook, analysts warn of debt control

Local governments seen curbing infrastructure spending as Beijing’s fiscal discipline pushes regions to prioritise social services and tech over large projects.

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An unfinished construction project is seen in China’s Anhui province. A number of local-level governments that lent to certain real estate and infrastructure projects have had trouble getting paid back amid a property slowdown. Photo: Getty Images
China travel

China’s Trip.com probe targets algorithms, prices after vendor anger: analysts

Regulators accuse one of the world’s biggest travel platforms of abusing market power, with analysts warning of wider industry scrutiny.

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Yuan

China’s PBOC sets onshore yuan fixing at strongest point in nearly 16 months

Analysts note how Beijing’s policy goals, such as internationalising China’s currency and curbing overcapacity, are aligning with a firmer exchange rate.

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China exports

China’s rare earth magnet exports to EU jump nearly 60% as approvals take effect

Shipments of permanent magnets to Europe saw a large increase in November, as Beijing begins granting general licences for rare earth exports.

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A rare-earth magnetic bar at NEO magnetic plant in Narva, Estonia. Photo: Xinhua
China consumption

Policy body urges China to confront economic challenges, confident of recovery

Official cites headwinds from imbalances between supply and demand, but says outlook is bright.

US-China trade war

US-China tech thaw? Trump clears Nvidia H200 exports – why it matters

It’s a ‘sliding scale’ strategy, analysts say of Trump’s U-turn – preserve American market share while dampening Beijing’s self-reliance push.

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China-Asean relations

China-Asean free-trade pact gets upgrade as Beijing touts regional ties

The bloc has expanded its free-trade agreement with China, a boon for Beijing as it seeks stronger partnerships amid US trade war.

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China’s Premier Li Qiang, front left, and Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, front right, ahead of the signing of an upgraded China-Asean free trade agreement. Photo: AP
US-China tech war

China’s lesson for the US: it takes more than chips to win the AI race

The AI war is increasingly waged among ‘hyperscalers’ – companies with full-stack capabilities across software, hardware and applications.

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The US and China are intensifying investments into AI. Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen
China economy

China looks to silver economy, women, eco-consciousness to spur spending

Consumer sentiment remains subdued, but some growth drivers show the economy’s resilience, analyst says.

Artificial intelligence

Alibaba integrates Nvidia’s AI robotics tools on cloud platform

The partnership is a positive signal for Chinese companies to use AI in developing robots and humanoids, analyst Tilly Zhang says.

Yuan

China’s yuan rallies with central bank backing as worries mount over US dollar

The People’s Bank of China has nudged the yuan into a stronger position as investor concerns grow over Federal Reserve independence.

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China’s yuan has rallied against the US dollar in recent days, a change analysts said was primarily driven by central bank policy. Photo: AFP
US-China trade war

How Trump’s China tariffs pushed 2 US retailers to brink of bankruptcy

The trade war hit the businesses hard, though analyst suggests they faced challenges before Washington’s duties.

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President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House on August 25. Photo: AP
China’s economic stimulus

China signals bolder policies to boost spending as economic headwinds rise

Premier Li Qiang called for more action to boost consumption and investment, following a concerning set of economic data for July.

China's economic recovery

China mostly unscathed by turbulent 6 months, but 2025 still an uphill climb

Analysts said Beijing has a number of challenges to reckon with this year, but largely agreed the country can still meet its economic growth target.

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