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Ralph Jennings

Kandy Wong

US President Donald Trump’s green light for Nvidia to sell H200 artificial intelligence (AI) chips in China signals a calculated shift to export older technology, according to analysts who see the move as aiming to fortify the US market share while dampening China’s urgency for self-reliance.
But some predict an ongoing policy tug of war in the US between advocates of this week’s relaxation and those who prefer continued tight restrictions on hi-tech gear shipped to China.
Trump said on Monday that the US would permit Nvidia to ship its H200 chips to approved customers in China, under conditions allowing for continued strong national security, and that 25 per cent would be “paid” to the US. The policy will apply to other chipmakers, such as AMD and Intel, but excludes Nvidia’s cutting-edge Blackwell and Rubin series.
The decision “marks a return to the ‘sliding scale’ approach”, which serves the purpose of exporting older-generation US technology to reduce incentives for Chinese domestic innovation while maintaining American dominance, according to Chim Lee, a senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit market research firm.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times on Tuesday reported that Beijing was set to limit access to H200 chips, despite Trump’s shift. Citing two sources, it said buyers would probably have to go through an approval process.
Some analysts see Trump’s move as further easing trade tensions following high-level talks in October, and there are expectations that the US will still hold back its most advanced technology while Chinese buyers buy reserves of whatever AI chips are allowed.
“Assuming the Chinese government is OK with the imports, the return of US-designed AI chips in the Chinese market could trigger yet another wave of stockpiling,” Lee said, noting that the Chinese technology sector previously stockpiled in anticipation of the Trump administration’s intensified chip controls.


While the H200 may be suitable for model training, its limitations make it less likely to be deployed for advanced inference – the crucial state after an AI model is trained.
“The H200 is not a cutting-edge chip, but it is nonetheless an important tool in terms of policy,” said Charles Chang, a finance professor at Fudan University in Shanghai. “It’s a signal Trump realises he needs to trade. His first six months were more of a posturing exercise.”
Gavekal Dragonomics noted before Trump’s H200 clearance that accumulating “evidence” suggests that the US leader wants “to move from confrontation with China to conciliation” and that “fighting a losing trade war can only harm him in the midterm elections of 2026”.
A November 19 survey by NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll found that Democrats had a 14-point lead over Trump’s Republicans on the question of which party’s candidate they would support in the elections.
China is likely to limit purchases of H200 chips to sustain its tech self-sufficiency drive but may boost imports of other US goods, predicted Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.
“This would help stabilise the China-US trade situation and make it likely that China would purchase at least a major portion of agricultural products from American farmers,” Chen said. “This is good for Republicans, especially Trump.”
Gavekal said that while export controls have hindered China’s domestic chip manufacturing, they have not significantly slowed its AI competition with the US.
Lee expects more “tug of war” in Washington this week between Trump’s move and a “maximalist” view that “aims to restrict chip exports as far as possible”. On Thursday, a bipartisan group of US senators unveiled a bill to block the Trump administration from relaxing rules on Beijing’s access to AI chips for two-and-a-half years.
The friction follows the recent release of the White House National Security Strategy, which emphasised the US goal to remain the world’s most scientifically and technologically advanced and innovative nation.


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It’s a ‘sliding scale’ strategy, analysts say of Trump’s U-turn – preserve American market share while dampening Beijing’s self-reliance push


It’s a ‘sliding scale’ strategy, analysts say of Trump’s U-turn – preserve American market share while dampening Beijing’s self-reliance push.


US-China tech thaw? Trump clears Nvidia H200 exports – why the green light matters

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}It’s a ‘sliding scale’ strategy, analysts say of Trump’s U-turn – preserve American market share while dampening Beijing’s self-reliance push

It’s a ‘sliding scale’ strategy, analysts say of Trump’s U-turn – preserve American market share while dampening Beijing’s self-reliance push