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David Josef Volodzko

Attacking North Korea could lead to the most deaths in a single conflict since the second world war, and we are arguably closer to conflict than we have been since the unofficial end of the Korean war in 1953.


“The prospect for a misstep has not been higher in 20 years,” said Phill Hynes, head of political risk and analysis at Intelligent Security Solutions.
Nevertheless, few South Koreans seem to care.
“It’ll never happen,” said one Seoul National University student who preferred to remain anonymous. “It’s ridiculous.”
It’s likely the regime will fire a ballistic missile or test its sixth nuclear weapon soon to commemorate the birthday of Kim Il-sung.

Last week, the US sent a fleet of warships to Korea, Japan also sent several ships to join the fleet, China moved 120,000 troops and medical supplies to the border, and North Korea reportedly evacuated one-quarter of its capital.
But after decades of provocations by the North, South Koreans have become accustomed to the threat of war – a sharp contrast to the concerns of many foreign residents.
“I’m actually meeting with a friend Sunday to talk about it,” said Maria Mosquera, an English teacher who lives in Seoul. “I am a bit worried and want to see if any major things are happening up near the bases closer to the border. I mean, I feel that the media does heighten the fear … I was in Bangkok when the military takeovers were happening and I saw how it was safe even though the media made it look worse.”
The International Business Times, for instance, recently cited an NBC report that listed the typical military and economic options given to a US president. The article also cited six different Korea analysts who said strong military action is improbable. Nevertheless, the headline ran, “Trump To Kill North Korea’s Kim Jong Un?”

However, there is a real and present danger that many South Koreans seem to be ignoring, part of a build-up that has been weeks in the making. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson recently said the policy of “strategic patience” is over, and US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley dismissed the idea of returning to negotiations stressing that all options were now on the table. To further show it means business, the US recently brought in Seal Team Six, the unit that killed Osama bin Laden, and said it is seriously considering military intervention. US President Donald Trump then wrote on Twitter that if China won’t help, he’ll go it alone.
But Kim Jong-un has seen what happens to dictators who acquiesce, such as Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, and he shows no signs of capitulating.
“It seems that these threats are more than the usual lately,” said Sergeant First Class Jasmin Harvey, who works at the US Army Garrison in Yongsan, central Seoul. Harvey said she is worried “especially being in the Armed Forces, but that’s my job”.
Despite these events, most South Koreans remain unfazed. Many simply don’t follow politics closely, or don’t care, and those who do are unconvinced the danger has risen to a level warranting alarm.
“By attacking Syria, Trump proved he can keep his word,” said a Korean businessman in Seoul who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “So he doesn’t have to prove himself by attacking North Korea … Now the ball is in Kim Jong-un’s court. I think Kim will get the message and will stop the nuke tests for a while.”

The reason South Koreans aren’t as worried is two-fold, according to Park Myoung-kyu, professor of sociology at Seoul National University.
“South Koreans have lived more than five decades with these kind of conflict situations. South Koreans have experienced several situations of military confrontation between the South and North. So maybe that is one reason why South Koreans are not so worried,” he said.
Or, as Sergeant Harvey put it, “Why worry when you can’t do anything about it or have any control over it?”
Park also noted that South Korea’s growing multiculturalism acts a shield, and perhaps this has also contributed to South Koreans worrying less.
“There are a lot of Americans and Chinese living and working here in South Korea, so neither side, Pyongyang or Washington, can take military action that might result in casualties in South Korea.”
But he also pointed out that South Koreans are becoming concerned, and that foreign residents who have spent considerable time in the country may feel they are less under threat.
“A few days ago I was a little concerned, but not so much now,” said Daniel Tudor, author of Korea: The Impossible Country and North Korea Confidential, who has lived in the South on and off for seven years. “Basically, I’m not worried, no. I think the Trump factor is the unknown variable, but now he seems to have backed off a bit.”

Another possibility is that Koreans think the North is simply using its missile and nuclear tests to exert influence over other nations, not to actually threaten them with war, and that conservative Korean media outlets are hyping a potential attack ahead of the South’s presidential election in order to rally support for the conservative candidate. Conservative American media outlets may be doing the same, since the leading liberal candidate, Moon Jae-in, would almost certainly mean looser ties with the US. Perhaps to prevent this, the US is beating the war drum.
“The timing is curious,” said Joanne Lee, a native of Seoul who now lives in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. “The US definitely doesn’t want to see another liberal president in South Korea after Roh moo-hyun who would be less likely to follow their policies.” ■
Continued on p.12
Continued from p.11


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A UIS. F18 fighter jet. Photo: Reuters

People watch a TV news program showing a file image of the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, April 12, 2017. North Korea's parliament convened Tuesday amid heightened tensions on the divided peninsula, with the United States and South Korea conducting their biggest-ever military exercises and the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier heading to the area in a show of American strength. The signs read "The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier changes route". (AP Photo/Ahn Yooung-joon)

epa05898649 A handout photo made available by the US Navy on 09 April 2017 showing the US Navy aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), the guided-missile destroyer USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG 108) and the guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Champlain (CG 57) participate in a photo exercise with Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyers in the Philippine Sea 28 March 2017. According to media reports on 09 April 2017, the Carl Vinson US Navy Strike Group, which includes the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), is moving toward the Korean peninsula to provide a 'show of force' against North Korea in the wake of North Korean ballistic missile tests and reported increased activity at North Korea's nuclear test site. EPA/MCS 3RD CLASS MATT BROWN / US NAVY/ HANDOUT HANDOUT EDITORIAL USE ONLY/NO SALES

This undated picture released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on April 14, 2017 shows the "Dropping and Target-striking Contest of KPA Special Operation Forces - 2017" at an undisclosed location in North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un has overseen a special forces commando operation, state media said on April 13, as tensions soar with Washington over Pyongyang's nuclear programme. / AFP PHOTO / KCNA VIA KNS / STR / South Korea OUT / REPUBLIC OF KOREA OUT ---EDITORS NOTE--- RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO/KCNA VIA KNS" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS THIS PICTURE WAS MADE AVAILABLE BY A THIRD PARTY. AFP CAN NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THE AUTHENTICITY, LOCATION, DATE AND CONTENT OF THIS IMAGE. THIS PHOTO IS DISTRIBUTED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY AFP. /

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a "Dropping and Target-striking Contest of KPA Special Operation Forces”. Kim has so far shown no signs of capitulation amid threats from the United States. Photo: AFP

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North Korea shows off advanced weapons during founder’s birthday parade

Missiles are paraded across Kim Il-sung Square during the military parade on Saturday, April 15, 2017. Photo: AP

Soldiers in tanks take part in a military parade on Saturday, April 15, 2017, in Pyongyang, North Korea to celebrate the 105th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung, the country's late founder and grandfather of current ruler Kim Jong Un. (AP Photo/Wong Maye-E)

North Korean women soldiers take part in a military parade Saturday, April 15, 2017, in Pyongyang, North Korea, to celebrate the 105th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung, the country's late founder and grandfather of current ruler Kim Jong Un. (AP Photo/Wong Maye-E)

epa05908581 North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L) speaks with North Korean Premier Park Pong-ju (R) during a parade for the 'Day of the Sun' festival on Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea, 15 April 2017. North Koreans celebrate the 'Day of the Sun' festival commemorating the 105th birthday anniversary of former supreme leader Kim Il-sung on 15 April as tension over nuclear issues rise in the region. EPA/HOW HWEE YOUNG

Missiles are paraded across Kim Il Sung Square during a military parade Saturday, April 15, 2017, in Pyongyang, North Korea, to celebrate the 105th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung, the country's late founder and grandfather of current ruler Kim Jong Un. (AP Photo/Wong Maye-E)

Military vehicles carry missiles with characters reading 'Pukkuksong' during a military parade marking the 105th birth anniversary of country's founding father, Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang, North Korea April 15, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

In this image made from video broadcast by North Korean broadcaster KRT, military vehicles prepare for a parade at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, Saturday, April 15, 2017. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has appeared in a massive parade in the capital, Pyongyang, celebrating the birthday of his late grandfather and North Korea founder Kim Il Sung. (KRT via AP)

In this image made from video broadcast by North Korean broadcaster KRT, a portrait of the country's founder Kim Il Sung is carried during a parade at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, Saturday, April 15, 2017. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has appeared in a massive parade in the capital, Pyongyang, celebrating the birthday of his late grandfather and North Korea founder Kim Il Sung. (KRT via AP)

Parade at Pyongyang, North Korea. - HANDOUT

North Korean soldiers march and shout slogans during a military parade marking the 105th birth anniversary of country's founding father, Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang, North Korea April 15, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

North Korean soldiers march during a military parade marking the 105th birth anniversary of country's founding father, Kim Il Sung in Pyongyang, North Korea April 15, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj

Trigger a conflict and be prepared to pay the price, China’s foreign minister warns

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi attends a joint news conference with French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault (not pictured) at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing, China April 14, 2017. Photo: Reuters

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Sabre-rattling is a way of life on the Korean Peninsula, but as big players put weapons of war into position, some are starting to think the alarm bells may be getting too loud to be false


Sabre-rattling is a way of life on the Korean Peninsula, but as big players put weapons of war into position, some are starting to think the alarm bells may be getting too loud to be false.


Korean peninsula