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Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

The dramatic surrender of former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court on Tuesday further polarised a country already reeling from political strife – with the impeachment of his daughter, Vice-President Sara Duterte, dominating headlines and crucial midterm elections just weeks away.
While questions of jurisdiction and due process surrounding the ICC’s actions may now be moot, the Philippines’ decision to hand over one of its own nationals undermines its sovereignty and independence, and its credibility as a champion of international law and the rules-based order.
Duterte’s swift arrest and transfer to The Hague drew both cheers and jeers in the Southeast Asian nation of 115 million. For his critics and the families of those who suffered and died under his brutal drug war, it was a long-awaited moment of justice. For his supporters, it was nothing short of political persecution.
The elder Duterte’s detention in Europe and his daughter’s trial in Manila paint a vivid picture of a political dynasty under siege. After her impeachment by the House of Representatives last month, pressure is mounting on the Senate, which is currently in recess, to convene as an impeachment court to try Sara Duterte.

The optics of the moment are impossible to ignore. Regardless of the merits of the charges against him, Duterte’s transfer to ICC detention – while his daughter is facing impeachment – has all the hallmarks of a calculated takedown. Whatever the outcome, the reputational damage could loosen the Dutertes’ once-dominant grip on Philippine politics.
For current President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and his supporters, dismantling the Duterte clan has been a question of political survival. The prospect of a Duterte resurgence in 2028 hangs over Marcos like a cloud, threatening reprisals and a power shift that could end his family’s return to power after years in the political wilderness.
The two powerful political clans long ago crossed the point of no return, as is evident in Marcos’ about-face on the ICC. His shift from a policy of non-recognition and non-cooperation to one of tacit consent not only reveals the fragility of alliances in one of Asia’s oldest democracies, but also how unreliable political promises can be.
Just a year ago, during a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Marcos dismissed the ICC as having no jurisdiction over the Philippines, pointing to his country’s thriving judicial system and law enforcement mechanisms. And he wasn’t wrong: the Philippines has a long history of prosecuting its own leaders, from mutinous military officers to an ex-Supreme Court justice and a former president. But by delivering Duterte to the ICC, Marcos has crossed a line rarely traversed in Philippine politics. The consequences – for his administration, his allies and the country’s democracy – remain to be seen.

An underdog story?
Duterte, who turns 80 in two weeks, has always been a polarising figure. He rose to national power in 2016 as a political outsider, a populist firebrand promising to clean up the streets and crush corruption. He was the first president from the country’s second-largest island of Mindanao, rich in resources but long seen as a backwater. After his arrest, protests and vigils erupted across his home island and the Philippines’ south – where he remains very influential – and even in The Hague, where Duterte faces trial, members of the Filipino diaspora have rallied in his defence.
Indeed, Marcos may have underestimated the Filipino penchant for siding with the underdog. Duterte’s surrender to ICC custody risks turning him – and by extension, his daughter – into symbols of persecution. Far from relegating the Dutertes to the sidelines, the ICC trial could galvanise sympathy for the besieged family and energise opposition to the Marcos administration ahead of May’s midterm elections. For his part, the elder Duterte seems perfectly willing to take responsibility for his policies and sacrifice himself to preserve his daughter’s political future.
The ICC case against Duterte is historic – he is the first former Asian head of state to face trial at The Hague. Yet the larger implications of this moment stretch far beyond the Philippines. Many nations have simply ignored ICC warrants with little consequence. Take President Vladimir Putin, charged with war crimes over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Even Sudan refused to extradite former president Omar al-Bashir. Instead, he was tried and imprisoned domestically.

The United States, which isn’t a state party to the ICC, has shown little interest in holding these leaders accountable. In fact, US President Donald Trump sanctioned the ICC after it indicted Netanyahu and has been actively mending ties with Russia, speaking with Putin multiple times.
Other nations trying to heal from a violent past have set up truth and reconciliation commissions to render transitional justice. The Philippines’ neighbours Indonesia and East Timor are cases in point.
Meanwhile, Duterte may also be the first leader tried by the ICC for a drug war. His anti-drug campaign, while infamous for its contested death toll, pales in comparison to crackdowns in other countries. Mexico, El Salvador and Colombia – all Rome Statute signatories – have waged far bloodier battles against cartels and gangs. Yet no ICC warrants have been issued in those cases. Trump himself has designated drug cartels as foreign terrorist organisations. Duterte’s trial could set a precedent, but it also raises thorny questions about the double standards of international justice.
There are concerns that Duterte was deprived of access to legal remedies during his arrest, undermining the Philippines’ commitment to due process, and a question mark hangs over Manila’s cooperation with the investigation despite it already having withdrawn from the ICC.
The Philippines now faces a period of uncertainty, with possible political instability in the days and weeks ahead having the potential to affect investor confidence. The ICC may have taken Duterte, but the real trial is just beginning. Dealing with the fallout will be the hard part.
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies and research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation.


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The Philippines

What Duterte’s arrest means for Philippine politics – and its global standing

Rodrigo Duterte pictured at an Asean summit in Bangkok in 2019 when he was president of the Philippines. Photo: Reuters

The Hague Penitentiary Institution prison is seen on Thursday, a day after Duterte’s arrival in the Netherlands following his arrest on an ICC warrant. Photo: ANP/AFP

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr holds a press conference in Manila on Tuesday after the arrest of his predecessor. Photo: Kyodo

Protesters hold a “We Stand with Duterte” banner on Wednesday near the prison in Scheveningen, the Netherlands, where people detained by the ICC are held. Photo: EPA-EFE

Anger and relief in Philippines over Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest: ‘my prayers answered’

Rodrigo Duterte’s supporters protest against his arrest in Davao City, Philippines, on Monday. Photo: Reuters

A Catholic priest comforts the families of the victims of Duterte’s drug war in Quezon City on March 11. Photo: Reuters

A plane carrying Duterte lands at an airport in Dubai on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

Is ICC arrest of Philippines’ Duterte the death knell for his political dynasty?

Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte speaks to Filipino workers at an event in Hong Kong on Sunday. Photo: Sam Tsang

A doctor examines Rodrigo Duterte at Villamor Air Base in Manila. Photo: Instagram/veronicaduterte

People hold signs against former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte following his arrest in Quezon City in the Philippines, on Tuesday. Photo: AP

Filipinos back ICC probe of Duterte’s drug war, but will it sway midterm voters?

Relatives of drug war victims hold photographs of their slain loved ones with placards calling for justice, during a protest to commemorate President Rodrigo Duterte’s final year in office, in Manila, Philippines on June 30, 2021. Photo: Reuters

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte gestures as he speaks during the House Quad Committee hearing investigating his administration’s war on drugs on November 13. Photo: Reuters

Christine Pascual, mother of a victim of alleged extra-judicial killing, attends the joint committee hearing of the House of Representatives in Manila, on November 13. Photo: EPA-EFE

This Week in Asia

Opinion

Asia Opinion

The ex-president’s transfer to ICC risks custody transforming him and his family into political martyrs and stoking civil unrest


The ex-president’s transfer to ICC risks custody transforming him and his family into political martyrs and stoking civil unrest.


Rodrigo Duterte

International Criminal Court

Drugs

Crime

Human rights

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

Asian Angle

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The ex-president’s transfer to ICC risks custody transforming him and his family into political martyrs and stoking civil unrest

The ex-president’s transfer to ICC risks custody transforming him and his family into political martyrs and stoking civil unrest