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Alex Lo

Alberta is a very cold place in winter, even by Canadian standards. And yet, in the past week, hundreds of Albertans formed long queues in freezing weather, in big cities and small towns, to sign a petition for an independence referendum for the province.
If at least 177,732 signatures – 10 per cent of the total number of votes cast in the last provincial general election – are collected and verified before early May, a referendum on Alberta statehood can be legally held in the autumn.
It now seems more than likely that the number will be exceeded. The Alberta Prosperity Project, which has been championing the petition, hopes to collect a million signatures.
More than Quebec, traditionally the hotbed of secession, Alberta is now ground zero of the biggest threat to Canadian federalism. Why?
Many Albertans think they have been, for years, getting a raw deal from the federal government in Ottawa and that Alberta has been exploited by other provinces for the resource riches it has generated. They have to pay the costs of meeting environmental standards and the taxes on their energy industry, and are criticised when they resist. That, at least, is their version of the story. In politics, though, perception is reality.
The fight for independence will be a protracted constitutional process, but the petition couldn’t have come at a worse time.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed Canada should be America’s 51st state. Many think he is joking. In truth, he has been half-hearted so far and has been focusing on Ottawa, intimidating federal officials, all the way to the prime minister – first Justin Trudeau and now Mark Carney.
What Trump should be concentrating on is allying with provincial politicians with an “Alberta first” mentality, but especially the growing independence movement. Make Alberta America’s 51st state: now that would sound pretty good to Albertans, especially those whose livelihoods depend on the oil and gas industry.
The Alberta Prosperity Project has reportedly already had three meetings with US State Department officials. It’s not clear, though, how receptive the Americans were. But they should be.
More ominously, just as Carney was making nice with President Xi Jinping in Beijing after years of enmity between the two countries, former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon warned in the Daily Mail that, for the United States, Canada is the “next Ukraine” – not for protecting, but for taking over, à la Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Greenland and Canada are all of a piece in the mind of Trump, whose avowed foreign policy goal under the so-called Donroe Doctrine is to turn the entire western hemisphere into a fortress for the US’ defence and commercial interests. According to Bannon, during Trump’s first term as US president, an Arctic working group was formed, and it concluded that Greenland’s and Canada’s Arctic territories are strategically vital to the US as Russia and China try to encroach on the region.

In fact, even before Trump entered US politics, Canada and the US were locked in a dispute over control of and access to the Northwest Passage, which is emerging as a major sea route thanks to global warming.
The road to Canada is through Alberta. Given the province’s economic dependence on oil and gas, it is naturally aligned with the “drill, baby, drill” business ideology of Trump and his support base in the US energy sector.
The province is landlocked, which means moving oil and gas depends on the good graces and cooperation of other provinces, which are perceived to benefit from Alberta’s energy earnings via the so-called equalisation system – federal fiscal transfers for the provinces – but refuse to share the environmental costs.
Washington and the US energy sector may, at least theoretically, offer a whole new alternative for Alberta to export its resources globally while keeping more of the wealth to itself.


If Alberta goes, so goes the rest of Canada. It’s only a remote possibility, but not improbable either.
Trump has just redirected his tariff war to Britain and seven European countries for supporting Denmark’s sovereign claim over Greenland.
Western countries are in utter shock and disbelief that the US is now treating them like it has always treated the rest of the world, having always assumed that they are special and all part of the same family.
They are now getting a taste of the US’ long history of subversions, regime changes, invasions and national break-ups across the developing world. It will not be the first civilisation that devours itself.


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How Donald Trump could break up Canada

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Pumpjacks draw out oil and gas from well heads as wildfire smoke hangs in the air in Alberta province, Canada, on May 12, 2024. Photo: The Canadian Press via AP

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Opinion

World Opinion

News

World

United States & Canada

Politics

While the US president has focused on intimidating Canada’s federal officials, he might be better served by concentrating on Alberta


While the US president has focused on intimidating Canada’s federal officials, he might be better served by concentrating on Alberta.


United States

Greenland

War and conflict

Donald Trump

Mark Carney

Justin Trudeau

Energy

China

Russia

Arctic

Steve Bannon

Vladimir Putin

US Department of State

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

As I see it

How Donald Trump could break up Canada

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}While the US president has focused on intimidating Canada’s federal officials, he might be better served by concentrating on Alberta

While the US president has focused on intimidating Canada’s federal officials, he might be better served by concentrating on Alberta