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Canada
OpinionWorld Opinion
Alex Lo

As I see it | How Donald Trump could break up Canada

While the US president has focused on intimidating Canada’s federal officials, he might be better served by concentrating on Alberta

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US President Donald Trump speaks to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum looks on at the end of the draw for the 2026 World Cup at the Kennedy Centre in Washington, on December 5, 2025. Photo: AP
Alex Loin Toronto

Alberta is a very cold place in winter, even by Canadian standards. And yet, in the past week, hundreds of Albertans formed long queues in freezing weather, in big cities and small towns, to sign a petition for an independence referendum for the province.

If at least 177,732 signatures – 10 per cent of the total number of votes cast in the last provincial general election – are collected and verified before early May, a referendum on Alberta statehood can be legally held in the autumn.

It now seems more than likely that the number will be exceeded. The Alberta Prosperity Project, which has been championing the petition, hopes to collect a million signatures.

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More than Quebec, traditionally the hotbed of secession, Alberta is now ground zero of the biggest threat to Canadian federalism. Why?

Many Albertans think they have been, for years, getting a raw deal from the federal government in Ottawa and that Alberta has been exploited by other provinces for the resource riches it has generated. They have to pay the costs of meeting environmental standards and the taxes on their energy industry, and are criticised when they resist. That, at least, is their version of the story. In politics, though, perception is reality.

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The fight for independence will be a protracted constitutional process, but the petition couldn’t have come at a worse time.

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