Letters | Is a drone-powered US-mainland China duel over Taiwan in the offing?

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On September 30, 2024, during a reception to celebrate the founding of the People’s Republic of China, Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of “China’s complete reunification”, sending a powerful message to the United States. On paper, the US claims to respect the one-China policy, but it has armed Taiwan to the teeth, spent billions on defence aid and sailed warships close to China. US military officials have also warned that Beijing aims to be ready for reunification by force by 2027.

As the US strengthens its military capabilities, China is honing its strengths in drone warfare. China is building hi-tech military drones, such as the Wing Loong series, and advancing swarm drone technology that enables a huge number of artificial intelligence-powered drones to carry out various combat missions. Such drones are relatively inexpensive and difficult to detect, representing a paradigm shift in modern warfare.

The US is also working on swarm drone capabilities evident in its “hellscape” strategy and Replicator initiative, with tens of thousands of drones to be delivered to combat domains by August this year. At the same time, there have been significant investments in anti-drone technology, such as the Drone Defender and Leonidas, with Nato allies also developing similar systems.

China is countering with its own drone guns and looking into electromagnetic pulse weapons. While the US is trying to turn Taiwan into a major drone production base, an effective blockade by the People’s Liberation Army could seriously impair the supply chain, endangering US military plans.

A war game by a Washington-based think tank in 2023 highlighted the grave consequences, including massive casualties, of a US-China war over Taiwan. China is now armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach US territories. Beijing’s ICBM test in September last year sent a strong warning that it is ready to push beyond the Taiwan Strait if provoked.