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Kun Tian

When it comes to tourism, Hong Kong is recovering footfall faster than spending and officials need to realise that the two are not the same.
The city’s economy grew by 5.9 per cent year on year in the first three months, its strongest quarterly performance in almost five years, according to the Census and Statistics Department’s advance estimate. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po pointed to a 17 per cent rise in first-quarter visitor numbers and 5.2 per cent increase in retail and catering spending as evidence of stronger momentum. During the “golden week” holiday, Hong Kong received 1.01 million mainland visitors, 10 per cent more than last year.
That is progress. It is not a return of the old tourism economy.
The same report carried a warning: spending was inconsistent. Some shopping centres reported double-digit growth, catering business in tourist areas rose by about 20 per cent, and hotel occupancy reached 90 per cent. Yet Annie Tse Yau On-yee, chairwoman of the Hong Kong Retail Management Association, said tourist consumption only benefited certain industries in traditional tourism districts, such as Tsim Sha Tsui, Mong Kok and Causeway Bay. More visitors did not translate into a broad retail revival.
Tse flagged a second pattern: overnight and long-distance travellers outspent day visitors who once formed the bulk of cross-border arrivals. That is the yield economy in miniature. Fewer, deeper visits create more value than dense, shallow ones, and current headline metrics do not separate the two.
Mainland visitors are travelling differently. They compare prices in real time, use digital platforms more efficiently, look for experiences rather than conventional shopping routes, and no longer rely on Hong Kong for goods they can access elsewhere. Researchers have urged the city to move beyond chasing arrival numbers and focus on raising spending per visitor, noting that mainland travellers have become more selective and value-conscious.

Luxury handbags, cosmetics, jewellery and infant formula once defined Hong Kong shopping. Those categories now compete with Hainan’s duty-free quota, mainland live-streaming commerce and Greater Bay Area flagship stores. The old price-and-authenticity premium has narrowed. Mainland shoppers can authenticate, compare and buy without leaving Shenzhen, and they know it.
The question is no longer how many visitors arrive. It is how much each visit is worth, and whether the value spreads beyond a narrow set of districts and sectors.
That matters for Hong Kong’s small retailers, restaurants and family shops. Many survived the pandemic on rent concessions, since expired, and staff cuts, as well as on the bet that mainland spending would return to its pre-pandemic shape. It will not, at least not in the same form.
The behavioural shift is visible. During golden week, some mainland tourists headed straight for hikes and city walks rather than following traditional shopping itineraries. That is not bad news. It confirms Hong Kong’s appeal beyond retail. But it does mean the city must build around what visitors want, not what they used to buy.
On day one of the holiday, the authorities issued 300 verbal warnings to visitors at Sharp Island after crowds exceeded capacity at the Unesco Global Geopark site. That is what happens when experience-led tourism grows faster than the infrastructure around it. If Hong Kong wants visitors to explore nature, neighbourhoods and cultural districts, it must invest in transport, signage, sanitation, crowd control, digital guidance and connections to local businesses. Otherwise, demand strains communities without paying for itself.

Hong Kong’s tourism blueprint 2.0 uses the right language: “tourism is everywhere”, quality experiences, smart tourism, deeper integration of culture, sports and ecology. But the operating model needs to catch up.
That means four practical changes. First, focus on yield, not footfall. Arrival counts are no longer enough. Judge recovery by spending per trip, length of stay, repeat visits, district-level spending and share of tourism revenue captured by small and medium-sized businesses. The Tourism Board’s per-visitor data should be published with the same prominence as arrival figures, every quarter.
Second, evaluate mega-events by what they leave behind. Art Basel, Art Central and ComplexCon helped lift March arrivals, but their real value depends on whether visitors stay overnight, eat locally, use transport, return for other events and spend outside the immediate venue.
Third, plan district tourism seriously. Sending visitors into Sham Shui Po, Sai Kung, Wong Tai Sin, Kennedy Town or Kowloon East will not spread benefits by itself. Each district needs curated routes, digital discovery, crowd management, support for local shops and programming that connects food, culture, history and retail. Without that, “tourism is everywhere” becomes pressure everywhere.

Fourth, stop assuming the old volume model is coming back. For retailers, that means competing on service, trust, curation and distinctive local experiences, not price or nostalgia. For restaurants, it means serving visitors who want neighbourhood food and local character, not just luxury dining. For hotels, it means packaging events, transport and district access, not just rooms.
The rebound should be welcomed, not romanticised. Hong Kong is not returning to a model where mainland tourists arrive mainly to shop. It is entering one where visitors choose between experiences, compare value and expect more personalised itineraries.
If Hong Kong keeps measuring success by arrivals alone, it may win back tourists but not the spending that once made tourism so valuable. The city does not need to rebuild the old retail machine. It needs a visitor economy that turns tourism into broader local renewal.


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Rather than count footfall and events, the city should focus on spending and impact, plan district tourism seriously and work on new assumptions


Rather than count footfall and events, the city should focus on spending and impact, plan district tourism seriously and work on new assumptions.


Tourism

Golden week

Chinese tourists

Hong Kong Tourism Board

Hong Kong economy

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Hong Kong’s tourism rebound needs new measures of success

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Rather than count footfall and events, the city should focus on spending and impact, plan district tourism seriously and work on new assumptions

Rather than count footfall and events, the city should focus on spending and impact, plan district tourism seriously and work on new assumptions