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Regina Ip

The US’ latest National Security Strategy will go down in history as America’s most explicit abandonment of its “liberal hegemony” – its decades-long policy of spreading its liberal ideology to foreign countries through covert regime change operations or open invasions. “We seek good relations and peaceful commercial relations with the nations of the world without imposing on them democratic or other social change that differs widely from their traditions and histories,” the document says.
Does this mean the end of US interference in Hong Kong or other hostile actions? Don’t bet on it.
Even though stability has returned to Hong Kong after Beijing passed a national security law to neuter subversion here, Hong Kong needs to be on the alert for other threats arising from wanton US presidential impulses, congressional reflexes or deep-state infiltration.
Note how US President Donald Trump sent Nigeria a “Christmas present” by launching missile attacks on terrorists allegedly linked to Islamic State, even though the national security document stresses that the US would focus on more narrowly defined “core” interests.
The references to Taiwan, spread across three paragraphs under the heading of “Deterring Military Threats”, pose the most hazardous risk to regional security. The strategy makes no reference to commitment to the one-China policy, nor opposition to Taiwan independence. The emphasis has shifted to deterring “unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait” through “military overmatch”.
The narrative on Taiwan is a textbook illustration of “offensive realism” in international politics: the theory suggests that the most powerful state will seek to maximise its power in the international system through maintaining regional dominance, while ensuring a rising power does not achieve dominance in its own region.

This is borne out by the national strategy document, which states: “As the United States rejects the ill-fated concept of global domination for itself, we must prevent the global, and in some cases even regional, domination of others.”
To prevent China’s dominance in the Pacific and the South China Sea, the US pledges a strong forward presence and urges its allies and partners, from Japan to India, to step up military spending.
In mid-December, Washington announced one of the largest arms sales to Taiwan. This angered Beijing so much that in retaliation, it imposed sanctions on 20 US defence companies and 10 executives.
Furthermore, the Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army launched two days of large-scale, live-fire drills code-named “Justice Mission 2025” around Taiwan in late December. The firepower displayed sent strong signals that Beijing has the will, and the military might, to bring Taiwan back into the fold regardless of foreign intervention.
Trump brushed off the exercises as routine. But if the US is truly committed to preventing mainland China from reclaiming Taiwan by force, Taiwan would be the flashpoint for military confrontation. This scenario is wholly avoidable, given that the two nations are thousands of miles apart and mainland China’s reunification with Taiwan does not pose any existential threat to the US.


Moreover, months after Trump’s tariff war erupted, there has been a decline in negative opinions on China among the American people. An annual survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, released in late October, found that 53 per cent of Americans favoured pursuing “friendly cooperation and engagement with China”, up from 40 per cent in 2024. Support for decoupling declined, and a majority (62 per cent) continued to prioritise avoiding military conflict with China as a very important goal for US-China relations.
In the coming year, Hong Kong can expect its motherland to continue to shelter it from the slings and arrows of superpower aggression. After China managed to rebuff Trump’s trade onslaught, the US is adjusting to a new reality.
At his year-end foreign policy press conference, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that China “will continue to be a rich and powerful country and a factor in geopolitics”. He said that “both sides are mature enough to recognise that there will be points of tension now and for the foreseeable future” and that “our job…as part of responsible statecraft is to find opportunities to work together”.
In the wake of new-found stability in US-China relations, despite many points of tension, confidence in China – and in Hong Kong – has recovered. Hong Kong has reclaimed its crown as the world’s top fundraising hub for initial public offerings, fully demonstrating its irreplaceable function as the Chinese mainland’s nexus of global capital.


Trade and tourism have also recovered. Total visitor arrivals to Hong Kong reached 45 million by the end of November 2025, surpassing the total number for the whole of 2024. Trade flourished. In the first 11 months of 2025, exports surged 14.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2024, with a strong performance in shipments not only to Asian markets like Malaysia, but also to the US and the Netherlands (with increases of 44.4 per cent and 36.4 per cent respectively).
The city’s weathering of turbulent US-China relations and recovery despite ongoing friction is proof that through the collective efforts of the government and the community, Hong Kong can withstand external pressure and rebound.
In the coming year, our greatest challenge will lie in meeting internal expectations – as Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu noted in his New Year message – improving the welfare of Hongkongers and boosting tech-driven growth, on top of making long-term resettlement plans for the victims of the Wang Fuk Court fire.


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Hong Kong Opinion

World Opinion

Amid stabler US-China relations, confidence in Hong Kong has recovered. However, the city needs to be on the alert for other threats


Amid stabler US-China relations, confidence in Hong Kong has recovered. However, the city needs to be on the alert for other threats.


Taiwan

Hong Kong national security law (NSL)

Hong Kong

Donald Trump

Nigeria

China

United States

Marco Rubio

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


What the US national security strategy means for Hong Kong

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Amid stabler US-China relations, confidence in Hong Kong has recovered. However, the city needs to be on the alert for other threats

Amid stabler US-China relations, confidence in Hong Kong has recovered. However, the city needs to be on the alert for other threats