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My Take
Why China’s shrinking population may be a blessing, not a curse
Research co-authored by Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu finds labour shortages can spur, rather than slow down, productivity and growth
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Alex Lo has been an SCMP columnist since 2012, commenting on China and international affairs.
There is little in common between Daron Acemoglu and Xi Jinping. As a strong advocate of the Western model of liberal democracy, Acemoglu, co-recipient of the 2024 Nobel Prize in economics, may be considered the ideological opposite of the Chinese president.
But on a crucial point about China’s future, the two may, strangely, be on the same page: an across-the-board introduction of cutting-edge technology may enhance productivity and maintain economic growth. It may counteract the negative impact of drastic population decline in the decades ahead.
While that may be an emerging consensus among economists and other social scientists, it still runs counter to the popular narrative that a rapidly greying China is doomed. The official figures released in January, for example, set off alarmism. China’s population fell by 3.39 million last year to just over 1.4 billion – a fourth consecutive decline and the steepest so far. Births dropped by 17 per cent to 7.92 million, the lowest since records began in 1949. Roughly 323 million Chinese, close to a quarter of the population, are now over 60.
The reaction was swift and familiar: China will grow old before it grows rich, its workforce will hollow out, its pension system will buckle, its ascent will end.
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