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Alex Lo

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing in a much weaker position than he did more than four years ago, when he launched his invasion of Ukraine shortly after his last visit.
US President Donald Trump left Beijing after much fanfare. However, he was criticised back at home for failing to deliver on any key aspect of American interests, such as committing China to pressuring Iran to end the war on US terms. His popular support is at a historic low.
Putin, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are usually grouped together by foreign pundits to represent a new age of the strongman.
In fact, there is even a book with the title, The Age of the Strongman: How the Cult of the Leader Threatens Democracy Around the World, by Gideon Rachman, the Financial Times’ chief foreign affairs commentator.
Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu were often added to that trio. But Orban is yesterday’s news. Now, both Putin and Netanyahu are wanted by the International Criminal Court as suspected war criminals.
If there was an age of the strongman, it didn’t last long. With the exception of Xi, all the others have been politically weakened and their countries’ global standing – if not their economies – severely undermined. There are diverse reasons for that, some common while others are specific to their domestic circumstances.

But if there is a single factor, you can already guess it: war, or in China’s case, avoiding it like the plague.
That is why I am always amused when I read breathless warnings by Western pundits and politicians about Beijing being ready to take Taiwan by force because, well, war is in fashion in the age of the strongman.
But if there is a lesson to be learned here for Beijing, it is that waiting it out rather than starting a war puts you in a much stronger position. At least it won’t make things much worse.
Putin assumed he could drag out the war by leaving Russian territories out of it. But Ukraine has brought the war home with sustained drone attacks inside Russia, including in Moscow. The Second World War Victory Day military parade was pathetically stripped down earlier this month precisely to avoid becoming a big fat target.
Putin probably thought he could end the “special military operation” against Ukraine in days or at most weeks in 2022 because he managed to quickly invade and annex the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and forced much of the West to acquiesce.

Likewise, Trump kidnapped Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife in a spectacular special ops mission as if he were playing a shoot-’em-up round on Call of Duty. To continue with the computer game analogy, the Call of Duty series has multiple levels of difficulty. If Venezuela was at the starting level, Iran is way above that, beyond what the hands of an ageing Trump can handle.
Israel’s atrocities in Gaza and southern Lebanon have turned the whole world against it. Netanyahu convinced Israel and the US that he had beaten Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. In his megalomaniacal fantasy, to achieve ultimate victory and consummate his lifelong goal, it was necessary to pursue regime change in Iran, if not its destruction.
It turns out that none of those assumptions or claims were true. The real problem for Netanyahu – and Trump – is that while the rest of the world is not materially affected by the horrors visited upon the Palestinian, Lebanese and Yemeni people, their joint illegal war against Iran has upended the global energy market, if not the world economy. It is hitting people’s wallets and, in poorer economies, their ability to put food on the table. A full tank of fuel for my car in Toronto used to cost around C$90 (US$65) but it’s now C$130. That’s reason enough for me to oppose the Iran war.


What’s worse for Netanyahu is that it is now widely believed that he talked Trump into launching the war. He had apparently tried it with every US president since he came into office but Trump was the only one stupid and ignorant enough to go for it.
So, is it possible for a People’s Liberation Army assault on Taiwan to unify the country? Well, anything is possible. But for Beijing’s risk-averse leadership, that would clearly be the last resort.


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War and conflict

How China wins by avoiding war

Fu Cong, China’s Permanent Representative to the UN, addresses the Security Council during a meeting on the Middle East, at the UN headquarters in New York City, on February 18. Photo: Reuters

A neighbour hugs a crying woman at a site of a Russian missile attack on a residential building in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 14. Photo: AP

A man who lost his mother and brother to an Israeli strike on Beirut, Lebanon, looks at the wreckage on May 18. Photo: AFP

How China is becoming the gravitational centre of global diplomacy

Illustration: Craig Stephens

China’s President Xi Jinping (left) talks to US President Donald Trump during a state banquet at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14. Photo: AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to the press at the end of a visit to China, in Beijing on September 3, 2025. Photo: AFP

US plans to charge Raul Castro increases Trump administration’s pressure on Cuba

Former Cuban president Raul Castro attends a May Day rally in Havana, Cuba, on May 1. Photo: Reuters

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel speaks at the Anti-Imperialist Tribune in support of Venezuela in Havana on January 3. Photo: EPA

Cuba faces a deepening crisis marked by widespread power outages, acute fuel shortages and growing economic strain. Photo: EPA

Vance says Iran talks making ‘good progress’, but US forces remain ‘locked and loaded’

US Vice-President J.D. Vance speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington on Tuesday. Photo: AFP

China’s use of propaganda may outwit US if Taiwan conflict arises, experts warn

US experts say that China could potentially weaponise social media during a Taiwan Strait conflict and spread disinformation. Photo: Shutterstock 

Ely Ratner, the former Assistant Secretary of Defence for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

China Opinion

World Opinion

News

World

Russia & Central Asia

Middle East

Trump, Putin and Netanyahu have all gone to war to prove how strong and powerful they are. The results should give any strongman pause


Trump, Putin and Netanyahu have all gone to war to prove how strong and powerful they are. The results should give any strongman pause.


Xi Jinping

Vladimir Putin

China

Donald Trump

Russia

Taiwan

2026 Xi-Trump summits

Israel

Iran

International Criminal Court

Ukraine

Ukraine war

US-Israel war on Iran

Yemen

Venezuela

Israel-Gaza war

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

As I see it

How China wins by avoiding war

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Trump, Putin and Netanyahu have all gone to war to prove how strong and powerful they are. The results should give any strongman pause

Trump, Putin and Netanyahu have all gone to war to prove how strong and powerful they are. The results should give any strongman pause