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Alex Lo

Myanmar’s military junta is staging the country’s first general election since its coup in 2021. Western critics have dismissed it as a “sham”, while the generals have insisted that the polls are “free and fair”.
Posting on X, Tom Andrews, the United Nations rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, called the election “a theatre of the absurd”. He may be right but it is also beside the point.
Andrews was a long-time foreign supporter of Aung San Suu Kyi, whose second-term government was overthrown by the military shortly after a landslide victory by her party in the 2020 election. He was also a US congressman.
Myanmar’s overwhelming need is to end the civil war, or at least contain it. Let’s just say if the election were “free and fair” by UN standards, there wouldn’t be a civil war raging in the first place.
There will be two more rounds of polling in January before reaching the final results. But Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who has been the country’s ruler since the coup, and his main civilian party are likely to emerge as the winners.
The junta can then claim a veneer of electoral legitimacy, something Western critics and governments have warned against, but which neighbouring countries such as China, India and Thailand will accept. At least some civil restrictions and political repression may be eased.


But the main issue is the civil war. The government’s territorial control is tenuous, covering less than half of the country. That is key to understanding the conflict and China’s strategy and diplomacy in the country.
If the junta were to collapse suddenly, the civil war could worsen. Various armed groups, which currently control large swathes of the country, would probably intensify the fight, and not all of them claim to be fighting for democracy, Western-style.
The Western news media tend to portray China’s presence in Myanmar as some kind of neocolonial adventure in propping up an unscrupulous military junta. Look a little closer, though; it’s far more complicated.
Quite simply, China is the only country with the clout, experience and contacts to talk and make deals with all sides, or at least all the sides that count, to stabilise a conflict that could easily spiral out of control.
Beijing is not doing it all for altruistic or humanitarian reasons, but it has found enough benefits from being involved to an extent that most if not all parties to the conflict could gain something from dealing with China.

The central government in Naypyidaw depends on China for trade, energy and to some extent, security and diplomatic cover, so Beijing holds a good deal of sway. But the Chinese side also maintains relations with rival armed groups such as the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) and the United Wa State Army, which control key mines with the richest deposits of rare earths in northern Kachin and Shan States.
Despite China’s own rich supplies of rare earths, Myanmar has become its largest foreign supplier of the minerals in recent years. The KIO has reached out to Western mining interests.
Then, there is the strategic Kyaukphyu deep-sea port, a key infrastructure project which the government notionally controls but whose surroundings are mostly run by the ethnic Arakan Army and its allies.
In a piece on the port project for Eurasia Review, Atom Sunil Singh of Khongnangthaba University in Manipur, India, wrote that “its strategic meaning is already visible in the present tense: tankers have arrived, pipelines run inland towards China, and everyday livelihoods near the terminal zone have been reshaped by new rules of access”.
Singh is referring to gas pipelines that run between China’s Yunnan province and Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Unsurprisingly, China has amicable contact with the Arakan Army too.


Of course, China is being opportunistic, but so are India and Thailand, which are also heavily involved in trade and humanitarian aid by working with both the junta and rebel groups. New Delhi, according to Singh, is especially concerned about Kyaukphyu being used as a gateway to the Bay of Bengal. Bangkok is worried about the flow of refugees and criminal gangs should the situation in Myanmar deteriorate further.
All three countries are eschewing the American playbook of backing and arming just one side against the other, which usually prolongs the conflict and worsens the carnage. With a country as fragmented as Myanmar, there is really no one side to support.
All three regional power brokers, alongside other Asean member states, can work together with different sides within Myanmar to moderate the conflict with the hope of eventually ending it.


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Myanmar

Why China is Myanmar’s only real hope

Vendors sort vegetables at a market in Naypyidaw on December 29, a day after the first phase of Myanmar’s general election. Photo: AFP

A drone view of a gold mine in Shan State, Myanmar, on November 7. The Kachin Independence Organisation and the United Wa State Army control key mines with the richest deposits of rare earths in northern Kachin and Shan States. Photo: Reuters

Why Myanmar’s junta election cannot hide a collapsing economy

A vendor waits beside bottles of oil at a market in Pyin Oo Lwin, Myanmar. Inflation in the country has reached record highs of about 30 per cent over the past two years. Photo: AFP

Myanmar electoral officers count early voting ballots after closing the first phase of the general election at a polling station in the capital Naypyidaw on Sunday. Photo: EPA

A vendor waits for customers at a market area in Lashio in Myanmar’s northern Shan State on December 20. The Asian Development Bank expects the country’s growth this year to slip to minus 3 per cent. Photo: AFP

China’s state-owned oil and gas pipeline from Kyaukpyu in Myanmar to Yunnan province remains in operation. Photo: Xinhua 

Displaced residents working in an illegal poppy field in Pekon Township, on the border of Kayin State and southern Shan State. Photo: AFP

Thailand’s 2025 of turmoil: border war, scam crackdowns and PM musical chairs

Rescue workers extinguishing a fire at a house after it was hit by Cambodian rocket strikes during clashes between Thai and Cambodian troops, at a village in Kantharalak district, Si Sa Ket province, Thailand, on December 14. Photo: EPA/Royal Thai Army

Anutin Charnvirakul performs a traditional greeting to thank lawmakers after being elected as prime minister during a voting session in parliament in Bangkok, Thailand, on September 5. Photo: EPA

Shoppers at a market in Chinatown, Bangkok, in October. Tariffs, floods and the strongest baht in years have affected growth in Thailand’s economy. Photo: EPA

Elephant riders lead a procession of white elephants to pay respects to the late Queen Mother Sirikit along the Grand Palace in Bangkok, Thailand, on November 27. Sirikit died in October aged 93. Photo: AP

Lisa at the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards on September 14 at the Peacock Theatre in Los Angeles. Photo: Richard Shotwell/Invision/AP

Asia’s 2025 in extreme weather and natural disasters, from deadly earthquakes to typhoons

Residents inspect the collapsed Maha Myat Muni Pagoda in the city of Mandalay, Myanmar, following a devastating earthquake. Photo: EPA-EFE

A woman walks along a mud-covered street in Liloan, Cebu province, in the aftermath of Typhoon Kalmaegi on November 6. Photo: AFP

A car is seen stranded on a stretch of collapsed road in Aomori prefecture, northeastern Japan, December 9 following a powerful magnitude 7.5 earthquake. Photo: EPA

Locals look for items in a collapsed house in Manay, in the province of Davao Oriental on October 11, after two powerful quakes struck off the southern Philippines on October 10. Photo: AFP

Six areas in Peninsular Malaysia experienced maximum daily temperatures of between 35 and 37 degrees Celsius for three consecutive days last week. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

Asia Opinion

China Opinion

News

Asia

Southeast Asia

China

Diplomacy

A general election won’t end the country’s brutal civil war, but regional coordination by key neighbouring countries without Western interference might


A general election won’t end the country’s brutal civil war, but regional coordination by key neighbouring countries without Western interference might.


War and conflict

Thailand

India

Min Aung Hlaing

Myanmar’s changing ties with China

Asia elections

Rare earths

United Nations

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

As I see it

Why China is Myanmar’s only real hope

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A general election won’t end the country’s brutal civil war, but regional coordination by key neighbouring countries without Western interference might

A general election won’t end the country’s brutal civil war, but regional coordination by key neighbouring countries without Western interference might