appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III

A foreign aid freeze, uncertain security guarantees and fears of being marginalised in great power deals have stirred unease in the Philippines as US President Donald Trump’s policy takes form. The opening salvo of the second Trump term has sent jitters through Manila, which stands on the front line of regional flashpoints.
Beyond strategic and security issues, the plight of undocumented immigrants, continuity for pledged projects and a clear economic game plan to compete with China will be key issues on Manila’s radar.
Trump’s immigration policy could immediately affect overseas Filipinos and remittances. An estimated 300,000 Filipinos without legal status in the US are at risk of being deported. Repatriating them requires logistics and reintegrating them would entail costs. The US is the biggest source of cash remittances to the Philippines.
Providing legal assistance to these Filipino immigrants and possibly negotiating for a longer grace period to regularise their stay can be discussed. Worryingly, Trump’s actions may also shape discourse in other Western countries where anti-immigrant views are on the rise.
Trump’s economic approach is another source of concern. Tariffs or threats to impose them against rivals, neighbours and allies alike unsettle markets. High tariffs on goods containing Chinese inputs may also affect producers sourcing materials from China. Trump’s tariffs will hurt Southeast Asian economies.
China is the Philippines’ top source of imports, while the US is among its main markets. Both countries will need to have serious conversations on the rules of origin to mitigate adverse effects on trade and intertwined global production chains.


America’s reluctance to take part in multilateral free trade deals increases China’s appeal, especially with the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trade pact. Beijing also expressed interest in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement.
Both Manila and Beijing are part of the RCEP. While the US is fixated on slashing trade deficits, China courts the region with economic carrots. The upgrading of the free trade accord between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations may deepen interdependence, although fears of dumping could rise.
Another factor is the continuity of strategies to compete with China’s growing economic clout in the region. It remains to be seen whether the Blue Dot Network can counter Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has already delivered multiple projects from railways to ports and dams.
Last year, the US, Japan and the Philippines announced the Luzon Economic Corridor, an ambitious undertaking that aims to spur connectivity and opportunities in a key hub of the Philippines’ biggest island. It aims to cover rail, port upgrades, semiconductor supply chains, clean energy and agribusiness. If progress on this project goes slowly, it won’t bode well for America’s image, especially as Beijing becomes bolder in offering new grand pitches like the Global Development Initiative.

The sixth Indo-Pacific Business Forum was held in Manila last year. Last December, the Coalition for Emerging Market Infrastructure Investment, a consortium of US equity firms, chose the Philippines as its initial focus. The US and the Philippines can make deals at these meetings and explore ways to attract private capital to bear on infrastructure projects in the fast-growing Southeast Asian country. Investors can capitalise on laws and measures passed to open more sectors to foreign participation.
During the 2022 visit of then-US vice-president Kamala Harris to the Philippines, she pledged several projects, such as a nickel and cobalt refining facility and a geothermal power plant in Mindanao. Distancing from these pledges will feed into impressions that Washington is more keen on optics than concrete outcomes.
The Philippines is rich in critical minerals for cutting-edge technologies like electric batteries and renewables. Investment in processing capacity will go a long way in maximising the country’s finite resource endowment and elevating its place in the value chain. Lack of follow-through may breed frustration, especially as Manila sees its neighbour Indonesia boosting its mineral processing capacity on the back of Chinese capital.
Trump seems less enthusiastic about renewable energy, which the Philippines has a lot of potential in. Such an attitude may force Manila to work more with Chinese companies, which already dominate the renewable space.

Meanwhile, the US may push for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and nuclear energy. Expanding LNG production can position the Philippines as a hub for a cleaner US gas supply to meet the region’s rising demand. Whether Washington will still be keen to support risky Philippine offshore petroleum projects in the contested South China Sea once commercial gas exports secure a steady market remains to be seen.
In 2022, US financial entity Cerberus Capital Management bought the beleaguered Hanjin shipyard in Subic. Billed as the biggest public-private partnership in the 75-year history of Philippines-US relations, the investment has yet to revive the fortunes of the former Korean dockyard. At its height, it employed tens of thousands of workers. The US can catch up with China’s massive shipbuilding capacity by working with allies like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
Meanwhile, cooperation in chip production can improve Manila’s semiconductor industry. The country should seize opportunities created by de-risking and diversification, with foreign capital expanding into Southeast Asia.
The Philippines also has the weakest domestic defence industry among US allies in the region. Manila should turn the diplomatic support and sympathy of its allies into investments to boost the country’s indigenous arms sector.


Philippines’ short-lived Discord ban exposes cracks in online safety strategy

Philippines pardons death row inmate repatriated from Indonesia

Philippines impeachment: is path now clear to convict Sara Duterte?

‘Open, close, reopen’: return of choking haze traps Malaysian schools in limbo

The Philippines

Can the US keep the upper hand over China in the Philippines?

Signage for the US government’s humanitarian agency USAID is seen on a cargo container beside a tricycle in Manila on February 4. The US has issued a “stop-work” order for all existing foreign aid and paused new aid, after President Donald Trump ordered a pause to review if aid allocation was aligned with his foreign policy. Photo: AFP

Subic Bay. A Subic-Clark-Manila-Batangas railway project is being planned as part of the Luzon Economic Corridor. Photo: Steven Borowiec

A maintenance worker cuts grass next to solar panels at a solar energy farm owned and operated by Valenzuela Solar Energy Inc in Valenzuela, suburban Manila on May 28, 2022. Photo: AFP

Philippines in Brics – would joining mend ties with China?

Brics leaders attend the 2024 summit in Kazan, Russia. Photo: dpa

The flags of Brics nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Photo: AP

China’s belt and road could fill ‘vacuum’ after Trump’s USAID freeze: analysts

A funding freeze has left the status of the United States Agency for International Development in doubt. Photo: Reuters

A funding freeze has left the status of the United States Agency for International Development in doubt. Photo: AFP

US aid freeze sparks fears Philippines will become ‘bargaining chip’ in Trump’s China talks

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, (left)) accompanied by a US soldier inspects a high mobility artillery rocket system on April 26, 2023. Photo: AFP

US and Filipino soldiers fire howitzers during a live firing exercise in the Philippines, in May 2024. Photo: Jeoffrey Maitem

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has defended the 90-day aid freeze. Photo: AFP

US soldiers prepare for the Balikatan joint military drill between American and Philippine troops, in Palawan, Philippines on May 1, 2024. Photo: Jeoffrey Maitem

South Asia’s geopolitical landscape is shifting, creating new alliances

Protesters shout slogans as they take part in a demonstration at Shahbagh intersection in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on January 22. Photo: EPA-EFE

Trump’s tough trade tactics risk turning the world away from America

US President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland, on January 23. Photo: Xinhua

Opinion

Asia Opinion

World Opinion

News

World

Asia

Southeast Asia

Diplomacy

Economy

Global Economy

Policy

If Washington turns inward, Manila must leverage its position and diplomatic support to boost its own development and defence


If Washington turns inward, Manila must leverage its position and diplomatic support to boost its own development and defence.


Donald Trump

US-China relations

Asean

Energy

Renewable energy

Semiconductors

Belt and Road Initiative

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Can the US keep the upper hand over China in the Philippines?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}If Washington turns inward, Manila must leverage its position and diplomatic support to boost its own development and defence

If Washington turns inward, Manila must leverage its position and diplomatic support to boost its own development and defence