Cop28: China, India drove the world’s global fossil fuel emission growth, study finds
- Annual Global Carbon Budget finds emissions likely to grow 1.1 per cent in 2023, partly because of China’s delayed pandemic rebound
- Analyst points to China’s complex energy mix, including new coal-fired plants and ‘by far the largest amount globally of renewable energy, as well as nuclear’
Fossil fuel emissions in 2023 are expected to increase by 4 per cent in China, 8.7 per cent in India and 0.5 per cent for the rest of the world, while dropping by 7.4 per cent in the European Union and 3 per cent in the United States, a team of more than 120 researchers from nearly 20 countries estimated in a project steered by the Norway-based Centre for International Climate Research.
In China, which contributes to almost one-third of global emissions, a strong rise is projected for the volume of emissions from coal at 3.3 per cent, oil at 9.9 per cent and natural gas at 6.5 per cent. The growth this year is partly because of a delayed rebound from 2022 Covid-19 lockdowns, according to the report.
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Emissions per capita remain lower in China than in some Western countries and India is among the lowest emitters per person in the world.
“If current CO2 emissions levels persist, the remaining carbon budget for a 50 per cent chance to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius could be exceeded in seven years, and in 15 years for 1.7 degrees,” the international team said.
“Returning global temperatures below these thresholds after they have been crossed would require a massive scale-up of carbon dioxide removal after global net-zero emission has been reached.”