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Carol Yang

Fan Chen

Washington’s recent wave of trade, tech and visa restrictions on China appears to be a deliberate push to build leverage ahead of the presidential summit in September, according to Chinese analysts.
However, they warn that such aggressive pressure tactics risk souring the political atmosphere ahead of the high-stakes meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
The assessment comes as the two powers seek to establish a new framework of “constructive strategic stability”, in line with the agreement following the May Xi-Trump summit in Beijing.
On Thursday, Trump said plans were still on track for Xi’s visit to the White House on September 24, with AI expected to figure prominently in the talks.
Yet, underlying friction continues to build, driven by fresh US tech curbs and tariffs on major trading partners, including China.
Washington has moved to tighten exemptions for defence contractors procuring critical minerals from foreign adversaries. At the same time, officials have alleged that Chinese firms are illicitly using US artificial intelligence (AI) models to siphon intellectual property.
The US will also tighten restrictions on educational ties, by expanding a Pentagon blacklist barring more Chinese universities from receiving American military research funding.
In addition, US-bound foreign students and journalists, including those from China, face shorter visa durations.
The measures show that strategic stability “has not replaced strategic competition”, and that the geopolitical manoeuvring between the two will only deepen, according to Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies.
“Given the coming series of bilateral negotiations, the US also aims to use these restrictive measures as ‘bargaining chips’ to gain extra leverage against China,” Zhao said.
Beijing was likely to retaliate with countermeasures but “not to the extent” that it would cancel Xi’s planned US visit, he added.
In response to Trump’s remarks about Xi’s visit, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian on Friday referred to the “irreplaceable strategic guiding role” that head-of-state diplomacy has played in Beijing’s relationship with Washington.
“China is willing to work with the US to implement the important common understandings reached by the two heads of state in the field of artificial intelligence,” Lin said, adding that tariff wars and trade wars served no party’s interests.


According to Sun Chenghao, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, the latest US policies targeting China may not derail the coming meeting, but they would add tension to talks.
They would also complicate the pre-summit political atmosphere and narrow the room for domestic public opinion in both countries, Sun cautioned.
“On the other hand, it is precisely because of these growing frictions that the importance of high-level communication becomes even more pronounced.”
Past experience underscored the vital role of head-of-state diplomacy in establishing guard rails and managing risks, he added.
Sun argued that Washington’s roll-out of restrictive measures signalled a shifting strategic perception of China, driven by a growing consensus that technology, security and supply-chain issues demanded a much tougher approach.
“Before entering any formal negotiation phase, the US typically uses policy actions to strengthen its leverage, aiming to secure the upper hand in agenda-setting and rule-making,” he said.
Ma Zhaoxu, China’s foreign vice-minister, made a two-day trip to the US this week, in what was widely seen as the latest effort to pave the way for Xi’s anticipated visit to Washington in September.
The Chinese foreign ministry referred to the visit on Friday, confirming an earlier report by the South China Morning Post.
According to a statement from the Chinese embassy in Washington, Ma met key officials in charge of foreign affairs and defence policy regarding China, including Christopher Landau, the US deputy secretary of state, and Elbridge Colby, the US undersecretary of defence for policy.
Ma was also said to have exchanged views with members of both the US Senate and House of Representatives during his July 22-23 visit.
“The two sides had in-depth exchanges of views on implementing the important common understandings reached by the two heads of state and promoting the development of a constructive strategic stability relationship between China and the US,” the embassy said in a social media post.




Zhao suggested that Ma’s visit meant preparations for the next head-of-state summit were accelerating.
“If the meeting takes place in the US this September, the Trump administration will inevitably want to project a position of strength over China on American soil to showcase its leadership to US voters,” he said, calling such posturing “a subtle nuance inherent in head-of-state diplomacy”.
Sun observed that carrying on “dialogue while competing” had become a defining characteristic of current US-China relations.
“The core of this model is not about eliminating competition but rather establishing the necessary stabilising mechanisms within it,” he said.
He Weiwen, a senior fellow with the Centre for China and Globalisation (CCG), a Beijing-based think tank, said China and the US were engaging in both cooperation and competition and that this had become a new normal.
“Tariffs and technology curbs are consistent policies of this US administration and will not change, regardless of whether a leadership summit takes place,” said He, who previously worked as a commercial counsellor at the Chinese consulates in New York and San Francisco.
According to Sun, the vital question was whether the US measures primarily served the purpose of risk management or were gradually evolving into systemic containment.
The latter would only erode strategic mutual trust and make it more difficult for head-of-state summits to yield substantive results, he added.
He of the CCG noted that while the September summit was expected to stabilise overall relations and keep specific disputes from derailing broader ties, Taiwan remained a red line, whereas other points of contention were seen as manageable.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
Senior American officials have previously suggested that Trump and Xi might meet as many as four times this year, including at November’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen and the Miami Group of 20 summit in December, apart from the reciprocal state visits.


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Aggressive pressure, driven by fresh tech curbs and tariffs, risks souring the high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping, analysts say


Aggressive pressure, driven by fresh tech curbs and tariffs, risks souring the high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping, analysts say.


Will Donald Trump’s China squeeze for summit leverage actually work?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Aggressive pressure, driven by fresh tech curbs and tariffs, risks souring the high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping, analysts say

Aggressive pressure, driven by fresh tech curbs and tariffs, risks souring the high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping, analysts say