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A major new report suggests the number of new cancer cases worldwide will increase sharply by the middle of the century, rising from 18.5 million cases in 2023 to 30.5 million in 2050.
The research team, which published its findings in the journal The Lancet this week, says this is mainly because of ageing populations, as older people are more susceptible to cancer.
If a standardised age structure is used for calculations, the relative incidence of cancer will fall by 5.7 per cent between 2024 and 2050.
Almost 42 per cent of the 10.4 million cancer deaths in 2023 are attributable to factors that can potentially be changed, reports the international research group led by Lisa Force from the University of Washington in the US.

The researchers used the framework of the Global Burden of Disease project to make estimates for the period from 1990 to 2023. They also produced a forecast for further developments from 2024 to 2050.
Cancer rates have varied greatly around the world to date. Between 1990 and 2023, the age-standardised number of new cancer cases fell by 3.4 per cent in high-income countries and by 8.8 per cent in upper-middle-income countries.
In contrast, the number of cases increased by 28.6 per cent in lower-middle-income countries and by 23.6 per cent in low-income countries.
In Hong Kong, cancer remains the leading cause of death, with 14,717 deaths recorded in 2022, a decrease from 2021. This figure represented an average of 40 deaths daily, with nearly 57 per cent of those deaths occurring in men.
The biggest risk factor that can be changed in most countries is tobacco use, which was attributed to 21.4 per cent of cancer deaths.
In low-income countries, unprotected sex poses the greatest risk, mainly because it can transmit human papillomavirus (HPV), which causes cervical cancer.
According to a study recently published in the journal Eurosurveillance, vaccination against HPV is very effective. In Germany, the authority in charge of vaccinations, known as Stiko, recommends the HPV vaccination for girls and boys aged nine to 14.
In Hong Kong, the number of newly diagnosed cervical cancer patients has jumped by 30 per cent in the past decade, despite a citywide vaccination programme in schools and experts urging women to have regular screenings.

In a commentary also published in The Lancet, Qingwei Luo and David Smith from the University of Sydney, Australia, praised the study’s comprehensive global approach and systematic analysis.
However, they criticised the lack of data quality and availability in many countries.
Theo Vos, co-author of The Lancet study and emeritus professor at the University of Washington, said: “With four in 10 cancer deaths linked to established risk factors, including tobacco, poor diet and high blood sugar, there are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risk factors, potentially preventing cases of cancer and saving lives, alongside improving accurate and early diagnosis and treatment to support individuals who develop cancer.
“Reducing the burden of cancer across countries and worldwide demands both individual action and effective population-level approaches to reduce exposure to known risks.”
Additional reporting by staff reporter
Like what you read? Follow SCMP Lifestyle on Facebook, X and Instagram. You can also sign up for our eNewsletter here.


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Wellness

More than 40% of cancer deaths are preventable, study finds, as cases set to soar

Almost 42 per cent of the 10.4 million cancer deaths in 2023 are attributable to factors that can potentially be changed, including tobacco use, a new study suggests. Photo: Shutterstock

Poor diet is an established risk factor for cancer. Photo: Shutterstock

According to a recent study, vaccination against HPV is very effective. Photo: Shutterstock

Hong Kong girl, 9, battles leukaemia with YouTube videos, plush toys and positivity

Sophie Chan, nine, holds a Corny Ketchy, a plush toy she designed with the help of children’s charity Make-A-Wish Hong Kong, and is distributing to inspire children to “never give up”. Photo: Edmond So

Sophie holds a design draft for Corny Ketchy, her character that was turned into a plush toy. Photo: Make-A-Wish Hong Kong

Sophie’s design draft for Corny Ketchy. Photo: Make-A-Wish Hong Kong

Sophie is pictured with Madeline Kam, the executive manager of Make-A-Wish Hong Kong. Photo: Make-A-Wish Hong Kong

Sophie poses for a photo during a hospital visit in August 2024. Photo: Sophie Chan

Some of Sophie’s character drawings. Photo: Edmond So

Malaysian director on testicular cancer battle and how social media sharing saved others

Malaysian film director Jared Lee (right) with Jimmy O. Yang during filming of adverts for Cathay Pacific. Lee reveals how his testicular cancer battle reshaped his filmmaking journey. Photo:  Instagram/jaredle3

Lee was diagnosed with testicular cancer in 2018. Photo: Jared Lee

On his Instagram account, Lee talks about his testicular cancer and encourages others to get regular health checks to detect cancer early. Photo: Instagram/jaredle3

Lee with his wife, actress Marianne Tan. Photo: Instagram/jaredle3

Lee is currently preparing for a movie shoot that starts in January 2026. Photo: Jared Lee

How Hong Kong bone cancer survivor overcame illness and divorce to be stronger than ever

Douglas Bray (centre) competes in the Hyrox challenge in Hong Kong in July 2025. Completing the gruelling race left the cancer survivor feeling “fully recovered” three years after his life-changing surgery. Photo: Douglas Bray

It was after suffering a sharp pain in his leg while playing tennis that Bray (left) discovered he had chondrosarcoma, a rare form of bone cancer. Photo: Instagram.com/douglasbray

Bray with his dogs in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Photo: Instagram/douglasbray

Bray in hospital following his cancer surgery in 2022. Photo: Douglas Bray

Bray in Australia in July 2022, just before he began training with his childhood friend Quoc Nguyen. Photo: Douglas Bray

Bray during the Lantau 70, a 70km hike in the hills of Lantau Island, in March 2025. Photo: Instagram.com/douglasbray

Bray and Nguyen at the Hyrox challenge in Hong Kong in July 2025. Photo: Instagram/douglasbray

Swollen, puffy face? You might have ‘moon face’. Experts explain, share how to reduce it

“Moon face” or “cortisol face”, a condition in which the face appears swollen and puffy, is a health concern that has been popping up online. Photo: Instagram/mamamiaaus

The most common cause of moon face is long-term use of corticosteroid medications. Photo: Shutterstock

Lifestyle

Health & Wellness

Health

A global study finds that four in 10 cancer deaths are linked to preventable risk factors, including tobacco, poor diet and high blood sugar


A global study finds that four in 10 cancer deaths are linked to preventable risk factors, including tobacco, poor diet and high blood sugar.


More than 40% of cancer deaths are preventable, study finds, as cases set to soar

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A global study finds that four in 10 cancer deaths are linked to preventable risk factors, including tobacco, poor diet and high blood sugar

A global study finds that four in 10 cancer deaths are linked to preventable risk factors, including tobacco, poor diet and high blood sugar