IMF raises China growth forecast to 5% for 2025, citing resilience

The assessment is up from October’s forecast, with the fund citing government stimulus and lower tariffs as drivers

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IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at a press conference during the 2025 Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and IMF in Washington, DC, the United States, on April 24. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 3:32pm, 10 Dec 2025Updated: 5:04pm, 10 Dec 2025

China’s economy is projected to grow by 5 per cent in 2025 before slowing to 4.5 per cent in 2026, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, offering a slightly more upbeat outlook underscoring its view of the country’s resilience despite persistent trade frictions.

The annual assessment released on Wednesday showed an upwards revision of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the IMF’s October forecast, as the world’s second-largest economy rolled out stimulus measures and faced lower-than-expected tariffs on its exports, the IMF said at a media briefing in Beijing.

The economy has shown stability but faces tests caused by continued imbalances, said Sonali Jain-Chandra, the IMF’s mission chief for China.

“China’s economy has shown notable resilience despite facing multiple shocks in recent years.”

She also noted challenges, including prolonged property sector adjustment, spillovers impacting local government finances, weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures.

“China’s large economic size and heightened global trade tensions make reliance on exports less viable for sustaining robust growth,” she said, urging Beijing to transition to a consumption-led growth model and away from an over-reliance on exports and investment.

In the first 11 months of this year, China’s trade surplus broke records by surpassing the US$1 trillion mark, according to official data released on Monday.

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IMF raises China growth forecast to 5% for 2025, citing resilience

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The assessment is up from October’s forecast, with the fund citing government stimulus and lower tariffs as drivers

The assessment is up from October’s forecast, with the fund citing government stimulus and lower tariffs as drivers