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Carol Yang

China’s exports continued to rise in August, though at a slower pace, with the near-term outlook clouded as global markets watch to see whether the world’s two largest economies can reach a lasting and durable trade deal.
Outbound shipments rose by 4.4 per cent year on year to US$321.8 billion last month, according to customs data released on Monday.
The figure was lower than the 7.2 per cent recorded in July and fell short of the 5.4 per cent forecast by the Chinese financial data provider Wind.
Imports in August, meanwhile, rose by 1.3 per cent year on year to nearly US$219.5 billion, compared to the 4.1 per cent growth in July and the 3.8 per cent growth forecast by Wind, suggesting little improvement in domestic demand.
China’s trade surplus expanded to US$102.3 billion.
Analysts said the effect of front-loading – when goods were shipped before higher tariff rates took effect – might have waned, but other factors continued to support performance.
“Export growth slowed slightly but stayed positive in August. The front-loading of exports is probably fading away, but not as sharply as [the] market worried [about] one month ago,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.


He added that front-loading alone could not explain China’s export resilience, pointing instead to efforts to expand market share abroad through diversification.
The world’s top goods exporter had posted stronger-than-expected export growth in recent months – mainly driven by a surge in shipments to Southeast Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa – which had offset weaker US demand.
In August, China’s exports to the US continued to fall, with a year-on-year decrease of 33.1 per cent, compared with a decline of 21.7 per cent in July.
But the growing momentum in other markets remained strong last month, with shipments to Asean countries increasing by 22.5 per cent year on year, including a 31 per cent rise in exports to Vietnam.
The rising share of Chinese exports to Vietnam – seen as a transshipment hub – suggests that re-routing had continued to cushion much of the impact from tariffs, said Huang Zichun, China economist at Capital Economics, in a note on Monday.
Outbound shipments to Europe also increased by 10.4 per cent in August, after posting 9.2 per cent growth in July.
But Huang cautioned that exports would likely come under pressure in the near term, as the temporary boost from the US-China trade truce faded and Washington raised tariffs on shipments diverted via other countries.


China continued to benefit from robust demand for machinery, electrical goods and hi-tech products in August.
Vehicle exports reached 763,000 units, almost 10 per cent higher than in July and up 25.1 per cent year on year.
Rare earth shipments dropped 3.4 per cent in volume from July, but their value increased to US$55 million from US$36.4 million.
US President Donald Trump had called on China to quadruple its purchases of American soybeans, noting that this would help reduce their trade deficit. China imported about 12.3 million tonnes of the crop in August, nearly the same as a year earlier but 5.3 per cent higher than the volume in July.
Monday’s customs data did not provide a country-by-country breakdown of import categories, which is expected to be released later this month.
The volume of China’s chip imports grew slightly, up 2.1 per cent year on year, but was 8.1 per cent lower than the figure in July.
The US has used microchip exports as leverage in its trade negotiations with China. Last week, Washington revoked a waiver that had allowed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to export certain chipmaking equipment and technology to its manufacturing facility in eastern China’s Nanjing city.




In late August, Washington also doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent in response to the country’s purchase of Russian oil. While the US has so far refrained from imposing similar tariffs on China, in July it warned the major Russian oil buyer of possible trade actions.
China and the US will hold a fourth round of trade talks around November, when the second 90-day truce expires.
The trade truce was extended after negotiations in Sweden in July, which concluded without a final agreement.
China’s trade representative Li Chenggang visited the US from August 27 to August 29 to hold talks on bilateral economic and trade relations, according to the Chinese commerce ministry.
The two sides shared views on implementing the consensus reached in the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents, as well as in previous talks, the ministry statement said.


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Outbound shipments were up 4.4 per cent for the month, falling short of estimate


Outbound shipments were up 4.4 per cent for the month, falling short of estimate.


China’s export growth slows in August under shadow of trade war uncertainty

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Outbound shipments were up 4.4 per cent for the month, falling short of estimate

Outbound shipments were up 4.4 per cent for the month, falling short of estimate