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Opinion | Amid rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait, Asean has to tread carefully
- Frayed cross-strait ties and the gulf between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan present hurdles in Asean’s attempt to play a constructive role in promoting dialogue
- Unlike major powers like the US, the grouping is more reluctant to upset its big neighbour and largest trade partner
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The election of William Lai Ching-te as Taipei’s leader portends turbulence across the Taiwan Strait. For Southeast Asia, the hotspot is now more dangerous, given the actors involved and the importance they attach to the issue, the dearth of formal dialogue between the direct parties, Beijing’s non-disavowal of the use of force and the deadlines floated for unification.
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The Taiwan Strait is connected to the South China Sea, another regional hotspot where both Beijing and Taipei, along with four Southeast Asian states, lay claim to disputed areas. Unlike major powers like the US, Asean has a less elastic one-China policy; the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is more reluctant to upset its big neighbour and largest trade partner.
Frayed cross-strait ties and the gulf between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan present hurdles in Asean’s attempt to play a constructive role in promoting dialogue.
Asean is wary about the storm brewing across the strait. Taiwan’s position in the global chip industry means a blockade would disrupt supply chains. Outright war could create a humanitarian disaster and an exodus of refugees to Japan and the Philippines, which are closest to Taiwan. Over 700,000 Southeast Asians live and work in Taiwan, comprising 80 per cent of foreign residents on the island.
Anticipating ripples ahead of the August 2022 visit of former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei, Asean foreign ministers issued a statement expressing concern and calling for “maximum restraint”. Last year, the Philippines and Indonesia said they were drafting contingency plans to evacuate their nationals should the need arise.
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Situated next to the cauldron and given its long-standing alliance with the United States – Taipei’s main security backer – the Philippines is in a precarious position. When Beijing launched live-fire drills after Pelosi’s trip, they included the waters and airspace around Manila’s northern exclusive economic zone. This may have influenced the country’s decision to upgrade its treaty alliance with Washington and grant America expanded military access, including in three sites in northern Luzon across from Taiwan.
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