My Take | Beijing will show restraint with Taiwan’s new leader for now
- Despite what most Western pundits think, both sides will test each other’s intentions in a way that may lead to a temporary easing of tensions
As expected, William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party will become the next Taiwan president. But the DPP has lost control of the Legislative Yuan to the opposition. The Taiwanese electorate has shown a preference for balance of power rather than DPP dominance.
Because of Lai’s electoral win, it’s now a virtual consensus among the Western commentariat that Beijing will throw a fit and dial up the aggression. That is exactly what Washington wants – for an excuse to fortify the Taiwan island and the Philippines as it recommits to containing China in its so-called pivot to Asia.
For the Americans, the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East will end sometime; the Asia-Pacific is where the real fight lies. That alone may be reason enough to think that Beijing will do the opposite or at least show some restraint for now to test Lai’s intentions.
By now, mainland China must face up to the political reality that the DPP is an establishment party, and it is not going away. A more nuanced modus operandi, with both carrot and stick, is needed rather than showing aggression as the default response.
Lai’s victory speech is tentatively a hopeful sign. “We must replace encirclement with exchanges, and confrontation with dialogue, in order to achieve peace and co-prosperity, and the only way out is to have peace, equality and a democratic dialogue,” he said.
“This is most in line with the interests of the people of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and is the only way for a win-win situation.”
