appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Agha Hussain

A post-war scenario in Ukraine that favours both Russian and Western interests is key to a sustainable ceasefire. China could be well placed to pitch its Belt and Road Initiative as the key road map to this scenario.
China’s dislike of unilateralism gave rise to a Sino-Russian diplomatic partnership that has seen the two permanent UN Security Council members oppose US military intervention in Syria, sanctions on Iran and other similar policies.
However, Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine was a unilateral move itself, and its impact on China’s global interests shows why Beijing opposes unilateralism.
Just before invading, Moscow pulled out of the Minsk Protocol, a French- and German-mediated dialogue with Kyiv launched under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe in 2015. China had thought such multilateralism would keep Ukraine relatively stable and signed agreements with Kyiv last July to develop its transport infrastructure.
Russia’s unilateral invasion torpedoed these plans and also invited unprecedented European Union sanctions on Russia. This has affected China’s trade with Europe, most of which transits the Russia-Belarus part of the belt and road’s “New Eurasian Land Bridge”. As a result, China retains a strong interest in getting both Russia and the West to back off in Ukraine.
Usually, China avoids the diplomatic entanglements that accompany foreign conflicts as much as it avoids the conflicts themselves. However, Beijing possesses credible neutrality on Ukraine, and the geopolitical outcomes of Ukrainian integration into the belt and road may be acceptable enough to both Russia and the West for them to de-escalate at China’s urging – so as to allow Ukraine’s belt-and-road-driven restoration – without looking like they capitulated.

Ukraine’s integration involves heading an alternative China-EU trade route to the Russia-Belarus one. This multimodal route, dubbed by some as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, proceeds from China to Kazakhstan then crosses the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and neighbouring Georgia en route to the Black Sea, to Ukraine’s ports. Ukraine then serves as China’s entrepot to Europe.
For the EU, this can help delink its economy from Russia. The route also mitigates Russia’s coercive economic leverage over Ukraine, since Moscow’s respect for (and increased financial reliance on) Beijing means it is unlikely to try and control a belt and road corridor in the same way that it is currently doing with Ukraine’s ports and shipping in the Black Sea.
‘Hell on earth’: can the world spend its way out of the global food crisis?
The route also evidently complements the US’ incipient geoeconomic strategy against Russia, under which Washington has urged gas-rich Qatar to mitigate European reliance on Russian energy supplies. Additionally, given that Russia-US great-power rivalry is far more heated than Sino-US competition at present, it makes sense for the United States to back the corridor despite its general scepticism toward the belt and road.
From Russia’s perspective, while it may lose economic hard power in the event of a Chinese-led ceasefire in Ukraine and development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, it would benefit in other ways from China developing deeper stakes in resolving the Ukraine conflict.

After a ceasefire, the next logical step in China’s belt and road diplomacy would be to renew multilateral dialogue on Ukraine to finalise some semblance of Russian-Western – or at least Russian-EU – common ground and end the conflict for good. Such a dialogue would undoubtedly reflect China’s general rejection of Western sanctions on Russia; hence, the restrictions would need to be lifted as a prerequisite.
This would spare Moscow from having to bargain for sanctions relief by conceding to Western demands, like vacating occupied Ukrainian territory, which would damage Russian credibility as a hegemon in the former Soviet space, which it calls its “near abroad”.
US sanctions pressure on Russia shows geopolitics now trumps economics
A close look at China’s interests in Ukraine shows they complement US, EU and Russian interests in different ways. All these key players in the Ukraine crisis can claim some strategic gain from a Chinese-led ceasefire reached under the pretext of letting Ukraine embrace the belt and road.
For China, the ceasefire itself would be a special achievement. So far, the Ukraine war’s destabilisation of vital global markets, including food and energy, has not been enough to convince Russia and the West to wind down their posturing. Such an outcome would burnish the belt and road’s global reputation as a megaproject rooted in “win-win cooperation”, as Beijing markets it.
What is certain is that everyone needs a ceasefire in Ukraine. China has the motive and means to lead efforts to this end.
Agha Hussain is an independent geopolitical analyst in Rawalpindi with a special focus on Eurasian affairs


What China really means when it says it’s being ‘strategic’

Digital Silk Road: Hong Kong acts as financial bridge between China and MENA

China, Kazakhstan plan QR payments, expanding yuan’s reach in overseas retail purchases

Hong Kong cements superconnector role with wave of belt and road deals

Belt and Road Initiative

How China’s belt and road diplomacy could end the Ukraine conflict for good

China Railway Express containers sit at the Intermodal Terminal DIT in Duisburg, Germany, in November 2018. Ukraine’s integration into the rail network entails heading an alternative China-EU trade route to the Russia-Belarus one. Photo: Xinhua 

The China-Europe Railway Express, or China Railway Express is a key logistical cog in the Belt and Road Initiative. These rail links provide support for the envisioned New Eurasian Land Bridge. 

A cargo ship waits in the Black Sea to enter the Sulina Canal, a channel that provides access to the Danube River, offshore from the port at Sulina, Romania, on June 4. Ports in Romania are backed up with traffic or already at capacity given the shortages of specialist personnel to handle the surge in demand as the region desperately tries to figure out how to get grain out of Ukraine. Photo: Bloomberg

Ukraine war casts shadow over China’s belt and road ties with Russia-led Eurasian trade bloc

A China-Europe freight train gets ready to leave for Kazakhstan from the northwestern province of Shaanxi. Photo: Xinhua

Workers unload imported goods from one of the China-Europe freight trains at a railway station in Lanzhou, northwest China. Photo: Xinhua

China’s push to loosen US dollar dominance takes on new urgency after Western sanctions on Russia

China is increasingly looking to diversify its foreign exchange assets to reduce exposure to the US dollar. Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Ukraine war has undermined US aims in the Indo-Pacific as small countries seek to avoid the same fate

Illustration: Stephen Case

Ukraine war: China exporters wary of ‘secondary sanction’ threat for helping Russia skirt alumina ban

China, the top global aluminium producer, is likely to step in and absorb Australian alumina exports that had previously headed to Russia and could then potentially on-sell supplies, said Wood Mackenzie senior manager Uday Patel. Photo: AP

China, the top global aluminium producer, is likely to step in and absorb Australian alumina exports that had previously headed to Russia and could then potentially on-sell supplies, said Wood Mackenzie senior manager Uday Patel. Photo: Reuters

Opinion

News

China

World

Ukraine’s integration into the ambitious rail network linking China with Europe, by providing alternative routes bypassing Russia, would be acceptable to the EU and US
And Russia, too, could be open to China taking a lead on brokering a sustainable ceasefire, especially if it means lifting some sanctions


Ukraine’s integration into the ambitious rail network linking China with Europe, by providing alternative routes bypassing Russia, would be acceptable to the EU and US. And Russia, too, could be open to China taking a lead on brokering a sustainable ceasefire, especially if it means lifting some sanctions.


China trade

China-Russia relations

Diplomacy

European Union

Russia

Trade

Ukraine

Ukraine war

Ukraine war: Opinion

China Railway

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)
