Opinion | How China’s belt and road diplomacy could end the Ukraine conflict for good

Ukraine’s integration into the ambitious rail network linking China with Europe, by providing alternative routes bypassing Russia, would be acceptable to the EU and US

And Russia, too, could be open to China taking a lead on brokering a sustainable ceasefire, especially if it means lifting some sanctions

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China Railway Express containers sit at the Intermodal Terminal DIT in Duisburg, Germany, in November 2018. Ukraine’s integration into the rail network entails heading an alternative China-EU trade route to the Russia-Belarus one. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 9:15am, 15 Jun 2022

A post-war scenario in Ukraine that favours both Russian and Western interests is key to a sustainable ceasefire. China could be well placed to pitch its Belt and Road Initiative as the key road map to this scenario.

China’s dislike of unilateralism gave rise to a Sino-Russian diplomatic partnership that has seen the two permanent UN Security Council members oppose US military intervention in Syria, sanctions on Iran and other similar policies.

However, Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine was a unilateral move itself, and its impact on China’s global interests shows why Beijing opposes unilateralism.

Just before invading, Moscow pulled out of the Minsk Protocol, a French- and German-mediated dialogue with Kyiv launched under the auspices of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe in 2015. China had thought such multilateralism would keep Ukraine relatively stable and signed agreements with Kyiv last July to develop its transport infrastructure.

Russia’s unilateral invasion torpedoed these plans and also invited unprecedented European Union sanctions on Russia. This has affected China’s trade with Europe, most of which transits the Russia-Belarus part of the belt and road’s “New Eurasian Land Bridge”. As a result, China retains a strong interest in getting both Russia and the West to back off in Ukraine.

Usually, China avoids the diplomatic entanglements that accompany foreign conflicts as much as it avoids the conflicts themselves. However, Beijing possesses credible neutrality on Ukraine, and the geopolitical outcomes of Ukrainian integration into the belt and road may be acceptable enough to both Russia and the West for them to de-escalate at China’s urging – so as to allow Ukraine’s belt-and-road-driven restoration – without looking like they capitulated.