Both China and Iran have long-term interests in Afghanistan, but while China has been a cautious and reluctant actor, Iran has been clear-eyed and proactive. Given the scope of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, it would do well to endorse Tehran’s moves in and around Afghanistan.
The geopolitics of the South Caucasus makes it harder for Beijing and Moscow to share space there, compared with in Central Asia. Russia lacks a strategic motive to support the expansion of China’s presence in former Soviet regions if it does not help in its rivalry with the West.
Ukraine’s integration into the ambitious rail network linking China with Europe, by providing alternative routes bypassing Russia, would be acceptable to the EU and US. And Russia, too, could be open to China taking a lead on brokering a sustainable ceasefire, especially if it means lifting some sanctions.