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South Korea
OpinionComment

South Koreans are keeping calm, confident that not even Kim Jong-un wants mutual destruction

Joon Nak Choi says there is little sign of real panic in Seoul despite the heated rhetoric and regional preparations for hostilities, because they believe the Kim regime, no matter how ruthless, is neither stupid nor crazy. But what if they’re wrong?

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Why you can trust SCMP
Kim Jong-un attends an army event on April 1 in Pyongyang, North Korea. South Koreans almost certainly understand that the South has a very substantial technological advantage, not least in weaponry, compared with the North. Photo: KCNA
Joon Nak Choi
A foreign observer might reasonably conclude that the two Koreas stand on the brink of war. US President Donald Trump recently called “a major, major conflict with North Korea” a real possibility; Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has directed his National Security Council to plan for the rescue of Japanese nationals in Korea in case of conflict; and China’s largest city bordering North Korea is “urgently” recruiting Korean translators in preparation for a refugee crisis.
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Despite such frightening rhetoric, I saw no hint of panic during my trips to Seoul in late March and mid-April. Seoul residents were more focused on the then-upcoming presidential election rather than the possibility of war. Why were they so unconcerned about war with a nuclear-armed rogue state just 50km to the north?

South Korean President Moon Jae-in flags high risk of military clashes with North

Supporters of Moon Jae-in cheer after exit polls suggested a landslide victory for the then South Korean presidential candidate, in Seoul on May 10, a day after the election. There was little hint in the capital of panic over the possibility of an outbreak of war, despite the heated rhetoric. Photo: AFP
Supporters of Moon Jae-in cheer after exit polls suggested a landslide victory for the then South Korean presidential candidate, in Seoul on May 10, a day after the election. There was little hint in the capital of panic over the possibility of an outbreak of war, despite the heated rhetoric. Photo: AFP

The answer is that South Koreans seem to intuitively understand that neither the North nor the South wish to risk mutually assured destruction.

Most reasonable observers would agree that Washington would not easily risk North Korean retaliation on metropolitan Seoul’s 25 million citizens, and that Seoul certainly would not grant permission for a pre-emptive strike. Many of the same observers, however, would portray Kim Jong-un and the North Korean regime as irrational or illogical, and fear that Pyongyang would trigger mutually assured destruction on the Korean peninsula to achieve its purposes.
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While many South Koreans might verbally agree with this view, their actions belie their words. Few Koreans send their families abroad for the purpose of avoiding war, although many have emigrated to escape economic stagnation, a rigid society, and the unhealthy rigours of the educational system. Indeed, the number of Korean immigrants in the US – their preferred overseas destination – has dropped slightly since North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006. While rising incomes in Korea and the 2008 financial crisis may have also influenced this outcome, the absence of an exodus stands in stark contrast to the flight of Hong Kong’s middle class before the 1997 handover, or the plight of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees.

Why Kim Jong-un’s warnings of nuclear war will fail to impress US and South Korea

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