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Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.
The institutional and legal underpinnings of the US system on which investors have long relied are under sustained assault from the Trump administration.
With clear benefits for stakeholders, the region’s branded residences are poised to boost liquidity and set high transparency standards.
Just because the US is no longer the darling of markets does not mean the likes of Europe or China are safe bets.
While a shortage of investible assets and less attractive returns pose challenges, commercial property in Asia has come far in recent years.
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While the tide has not fully turned in Europe and China’s favour, Trump’s recklessness is providing impetus for badly needed policy shifts.
Fierce demand for digital infrastructure and Japan’s stability will remain highly attractive to investors looking towards Asia.
Higher inflation, a sharp slowdown or both point to a much bleaker outlook for the US than markets anticipated when Trump won the election.
While the overall market has yet to bottom out and policies are needed to boost confidence, secondary market resilience offers some hope.
As US stagflation fears undermine market confidence, Germany’s election outcome and China’s DeepSeek moment are shifting global expectations.
While the AI start-up’s success has prompted a reassessment of China’s stocks, policy support and stronger growth are needed to fix imbalances in the sector.
Eager to boost domestic demand and more able to preserve financial stability, the region’s policymakers are embracing greater monetary independence.
While financial distress is apparent, the risks must be put into context. The city’s woes are more externally driven than home-grown.
Trump’s tariffs will endanger US growth while providing Chinese authorities a chance to make a badly needed pivot towards consumption.
The region epitomises a vital source of resilience in Asian real estate: the strong role of domestic and regional demand.
Many investors continue to downplay or rationalise the damage Trump’s trade policy does, but there are signs the honeymoon might soon end.
Hong Kong’s property market is vulnerable to concerns about a hawkish Fed and mainland China’s recovery. Not so for Singapore’s domestically oriented market.
A global stock market this dependent on a few huge companies in a sector whose valuations are under high scrutiny is a recipe for volatility.
Even safe havens such as Japan, Australia and Singapore are under scrutiny as a more challenging global economic landscape emerges.
Tensions within Trump’s economic policies could lead to some being scrapped, but they could also be a further source of chaos.
There are good reasons Hong Kong’s real estate market keeps underperforming regional peers, but the prevailing narrative is too pessimistic.
A sharp sell-off in bond markets despite the Fed’s easing cycle shows investors are worried about the uncertainty around Trump’s second term.
With its expanding digital economies and key role in communications infrastructure, Asia is seeing robust investment in data centre development.
Structural reform is never easy, but for China even a messy pivot to consumption is better than staying cautious and not pivoting at all.
There is no room for complacency on the acute threats facing Asia, but its varied real estate landscape and sources of resilience merit note.
Asia’s best hope is that the transactional side of the incoming US president wins out and he strikes a grand bargain with China.
The financial and economic risks of a second Trump term are becoming clearer for interest rate-sensitive sectors, particularly property.
The Fed is making it clear that Trump’s policies come at a price, one that he might be unwilling to pay if inflation rises more sharply.
While stricter curbs might be politically unpalatable, ensuring public housing remains accessible and affordable is a bigger concern.
The problem is not China’s leaders lacking the will to enact large-scale stimulus but whether it will work given the present challenges.
