Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.
Pockets of resilience and growth in the city’s property sector could be the prelude to a broader recovery across the country.
Despite rising energy prices and bond yields, economic growth has been resilient and equity markets have been performing strongly.
Beijing is putting homebuyers first, but only by transferring financial risks to to developers already under severe strain.
While risks to Asia’s financial stability exist, they have nothing to do with the policy and structural weaknesses behind the 1997 crisis.
Advertisement
While the two cities compete on wealth management incentives to draw talent and capital, the spillover into office and residential real estate remains negligible.
From surging debt to trade wars with Canada, self-harm has been the main consequence of Trump’s reckless policy decisions.
Unlike the US backlash, Malaysia is drawing up efficiency requirements to guide a sustainable tech boom.
Bond markets are nervous about central banks’ ability to contain inflation as South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines face similar pressures.
Japan’s commercial property market is in a league of its own, but the sharp repricing in China creates compelling opportunities for investors.
The more ‘DeepSeek moments’ there are in China, the likelier markets are to doubt the AI-related revenues and financing of US hyperscalers.
An uneven rebound is favouring established operators as tight supply constraints raise the barriers to entry.
Reversing the yen’s long-term decline ultimately rests on Japan’s ability to take its real interest rates out of negative territory – without triggering market panic.
While the premium to luxury end of India’s property market is thriving, the dramatic shortage at the low-to-mid-end is coming under scrutiny.
China’s two-speed economy stems from the shift to new growth engines but the export boom it has created is doing little for jobs or consumption.
Suitable sites for conversion to student housing are dwindling while questions about scalability and liquidity are coming into sharper focus.
Investors nervous about the dominance of South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers can’t afford to ignore them.
As Hong Kong, India and Japan show, sharp divergences within a market defy broad-brush generalisations.
While forward guidance often proved counterproductive, it is the US central bank’s job to inform markets about the outlook for monetary policy, not the other way round.
The draw of safe-haven assets in these cities sees more Chinese becoming permanent residents – a trend Beijing’s clampdown on capital outflows may even encourage.
The continued slide in the yen has raised concern, but what happens in the bond market will determine whether the bearishness extends far beyond Japan.
The AI trade has shown gaps in Hong Kong’s stock market, but the share sale boom suggests it is set to capitalise on Beijing’s AI ambitions.
Even if the current AI boom falters, demand for digital infrastructure in Asia – especially in developing countries – will remain strong.
Investors have flocked to tech-heavy markets, but looming US interest rate rises and volatility fears could see India’s star shine again.
Unlike in other markets, Southeast Asia’s malls are in a good situation as they embrace experiential retail and adapt to consumer tastes.
As energy security becomes a more potent force, stress tests for countries vulnerable to supply disruptions are likely to become more severe.
While the drivers behind Tokyo’s outbound capital flow accentuate challenges in the domestic market, Japanese real estate still shows signs of promise.
Rising bond yields are doing some of the Fed’s work, as are investor fears over the US central bank’s independence under Kevin Warsh.
While tech giants are driving South Korea’s stock market higher, the country’s currency is struggling and foreign investors are pulling out.
Geopolitical forces, policy support, attractive rents and lower interest rates have combined to improve the outlook for both markets.
