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Sam Beltran

The Philippine Senate has made it mathematically easier to convict Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, but observers say the ruling could intensify a battle over an impeachment trial already viewed by the public as deeply divisive.
The Senate, sitting as an impeachment court, ruled on Wednesday that only senator-judges who are able to take part in the trial should be counted in determining the threshold for conviction.
Under the Philippine constitution, a two-thirds vote of the Senate is required to convict an impeached official.
Four senator-judges have been unable to regularly take part in the trial: Rodante Marcoleta and Jinggoy Estrada are detained over plunder cases; Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa is at large, wanted on an International Criminal Court arrest warrant; and Loren Legarda is abroad on extended medical leave.
The court has ruled that their absence should not count towards the denominator for the two-thirds requirement, reducing the number of votes needed for conviction from 16 to 14.

Thirteen senators voted in favour of Wednesday’s ruling and one voted against, while six senators widely seen as allied with the Duterte clan did not take part in the proceedings.
The ruling followed testimonies from four retired Supreme Court justices who appeared before the court, three of whom advised that the two-thirds rule must exclude senators unable to participate.
Duterte-Carpio’s impeachment trial before the Senate addresses allegations that she made grave threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and his family, as well as charges she misappropriated more than US$10 million in confidential funds during her time as education secretary between 2022 and 2024.
If convicted, she will be barred from running for public office, thwarting her intention to seek the presidency in the 2028 election.
Not set in stone
The lower threshold resulting from Wednesday’s ruling effectively increased the chances of conviction, said Paolo Tamase, an assistant professor at the University of the Philippines College of Law.
Tamase, who teaches constitutional law, said the decision to lower the threshold was sound, with the retired justices providing a “clear, learned justification” for interpreting the constitution in line with the realities of the Senate’s composition.
“The constitution intends a conviction in impeachment to be difficult but not impossible. These are unusual times for the Senate, with many of its members facing corruption complaints and the more functional reading of the threshold allows impeachment to continue as a mechanism for accountability,” he said.
However, Tamase said the ruling also “leaves the possibility for absent senators to appear before the verdict and affect the maths, which means nothing is set in stone”.
Cleve Arguelles, a political scientist and the founder of independent polling firm Momentum Research, said the ruling meant the prosecution now had to change focus from overcoming a narrow numerical threshold to winning over persuadable senators.
“The prosecution is no longer confronting what initially appeared to be a very narrow path to conviction,” he said. “The battle now moves towards persuadable senators and, ultimately, whether the prosecution can consolidate a broad coalition around at least one article of impeachment.”
Arguelles said securing 14 votes for a guilty verdict was “considerably more feasible” now, given that 13 senators had already voted in favour of the new threshold.
“Of course … we should not treat yesterday’s 13 votes as 13 automatic votes for conviction. But the arithmetic tells us that conviction is no longer a remote scenario,” he added.

Questioning legitimacy
Senator-judges aligned with Duterte-Carpio could still move to undermine the credibility of the proceedings in the court of public opinion, political observers told This Week in Asia.
“The minority may become even more emboldened to question the legitimacy of the proceedings at every opportunity,” said Jean Encinas-Franco, a political-science professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman.
“Clearly, it means that it has now become easier to convict Sara,” she said, adding: “Politics has always been full of surprises in the Philippines.”
Franco said the Duterte camp might ultimately challenge the decision before the Supreme Court “just to show that they still have options”.
Tamase, however, said the testimony of the retired justices would make it harder for the vice-president’s camp to argue that the Senate had committed a “grave abuse of discretion”, reducing the likelihood of a Supreme Court reversal.
Arguelles said the Duterte bloc had to make strategic use of its numbers.
“If they believe they cannot prevail inside the impeachment court, one option is to contest the legitimacy of the process itself and take that argument outside the chamber,” he said. “Their non-participation has both an institutional and a public dimension.”
Arjan Aguirre, an assistant professor of political science at Ateneo de Manila University, called the ruling a “risky yet inevitable move” that could undermine public faith in the outcome.
“Public opinion adds another layer here. Several senators seen as acquittal-leaning are themselves facing separate corruption allegations tied to the flood-control scandal, which could make an acquittal vote look self-protective rather than a principled outcome,” he said.
“Even if Duterte-Carpio manages to get convicted, the public will view the outcome with a low sense of legitimacy because people will know that it was adjusted.”
According to Aguirre, unexcused absences function as de facto acquittal votes because senators cannot abstain during a final verdict. “They can just choose not to attend to further undermine the process,” he said.

Defending her vote to lower the threshold, Senator Risa Hontiveros said the absence of certain senators during a trial should not paralyse the entire institution.
“Beyond discussions about denominators, fractions and rounding, what we need to determine is: who among us is currently present in court and has the capability to fulfil our sworn duties?” she said.
How the trial unfolded would have implications for the 2028 presidential election, Arguelles said.
“All eyes will be on who, if anyone, crosses over. A defection would matter not only for the impeachment verdict, but for the broader configuration of political alliances going into 2028,” he said.


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The Philippines

Supporters of Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio gather as she visits the Quezon city justice hall in Quezon City in September. Photo: AP

Philippine senators attend the impeachment trial of Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio at the Senate in Manila in July. Photo: Reuters

Presiding Officer Senator Francis Escudero during the impeachment trial of Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio at the Senate in Metro Manila in July. Photo: EPA

Senator Risa Hontiveros speaking in Manila, the Philippines, in September 2024. Photo: AP

Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio leaves a Quezon City court following a deferred arraignment on grave threat charges in September. Photo: EPA

Philippine senators are sworn in as jurors for the impeachment trial of Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio at the Senate in Manila in May. Photo: AFP

Philippines’ Duterte-Quiboloy ties on show at world’s largest arena launch

Apollo Quiboloy takes his oath as he attends a hearing at the Philippine Senate in October 2024, in Manila, Philippines. Photo: AP

The 75,000-seater Kingdome stadium in Davao City was formally opened on Tuesday. Photo: Philippine Information Agency

Filipino televangelist Apollo Quiboloy (centre) arrives at a courthouse in Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines, in September 2024. Photo: EPA-EFE

Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte takes oath during a senate inquiry on the so-called war on drugs during his administration at the Philippine Senate, in October 2024, in Manila, Philippines. Photo: AP

Is Sara Duterte’s lead for Philippines’ 2028 presidential race in danger?

Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio announces her intention to run for the country’s presidency in 2028 in February. Photo: AFP

An infographic showing the results of a survey matching Vice-President Sara Duterte against Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo in a hypothetical 2028 presidential match-up. Photo: Octa Research

An infographic showing the results of a survey on hypothetical match-ups between Vice-President Sara Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos versus Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo. Photo: Octa Research

Philippine Vice-President Leni Robredo in May 2022. Robredo has said she will run for re-election as mayor of Naga City in 2028. Photo: Office of the Vice-President via AP

Why Sara Duterte is changing her tone on Philippines’ South China Sea conflict

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte delivers a statement following her impeachment on February 7. Photo: Reuters

A Philippine soldier peers through a telescope from a viewing deck in Philippine-occupied Thitu Island in the disputed South China Sea on February 21. Photo: Reuters

Paolo Duterte (left) the brother of Sara Duterte-Carpio chats with fellow representatives before the session starts on the voting to impeach her on May 11. Photo: AP

Has Philippines’ Marcos missed his chance to stop the Dutertes?

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr during the Foreign Correspondents’ Association of the Philippines forum at a hotel in Manila on August 14. Photo: AFP

A protester holds an image of former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte with a message reading “Hold Duterte Accountable!”, during a rally in Quezon City in March. Photo: EPA

President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr (centre right) and Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio (centre left) during the inauguration ceremony on June 30, 2022 in Manila. Photo: AP

Sara Duterte-Carpio speaks during a demonstration titled “Free Duterte Now” outside the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands, on July 29. Photo: AP

Leni Robredo ran for president in 2022. Photo: Office of the Vice-President/AP

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Omitting absent senators cuts the votes needed to oust Sara Duterte-Carpio from 16 to 14, setting up a clash over the court’s legitimacy


Omitting absent senators cuts the votes needed to oust Sara Duterte-Carpio from 16 to 14, setting up a clash over the court’s legitimacy.


Sara Duterte-Carpio

Philippine Senate

Philippines impeachment: is path now clear to convict Sara Duterte?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Omitting absent senators cuts the votes needed to oust Sara Duterte-Carpio from 16 to 14, setting up a clash over the court’s legitimacy

Omitting absent senators cuts the votes needed to oust Sara Duterte-Carpio from 16 to 14, setting up a clash over the court’s legitimacy