As Singapore weighs joining China-led AI body, does it risk US retaliation?

As Singapore considers joining a China-led body on artificial intelligence, analysts say membership would give the city state a bigger say in global governance matters related to the technology but may invite an unfriendly response from Washington. Minister for Digital Development and Information Josephine Teo revealed in parliament earlier this week that Singapore had received an invitation to join the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation (Waico). Singapore would consider the proposal alongside its broader engagements with China and other international AI cooperation initiatives, she added. Launched in July, the Shanghai-based bloc aims to build cooperation in areas such as AI governance, technical standards and development strategies. Responding to a parliamentary question on Singapore’s strategic positioning between Waico and the US-led Pax Silica initiative, Teo said on Wednesday: “Whether we participate in any particular initiative depends on its objectives, the substantive areas of common interest, how it complements our existing engagements, and Singapore’s overall interests. “It is therefore less meaningful to make one-to-one comparisons between individual initiatives.” The Pax Silica initiative aims to help partners strengthen supply chains for minerals essential to AI. Singapore was among seven signatories that agreed to collaborate during its launch last December. The government said the initiative aligned with its approach of pursuing mutually beneficial cooperation with international partners and reflected a “shared commitment to advance prosperity, technological progress and economic security”. Teo added: “What matters most is the overall relationships we have with each of our partners, and how we can continue to work with them in ways that advance Singapore’s interests and contribute constructively to international cooperation on AI.” ‘Less about China’ Joining the China-led bloc would, in principle, be in Singapore’s interests by providing a platform to shape AI governance. But an intensifying superpower rivalry over the fast-evolving technology might complicate decision-making, analysts said. Beijing has positioned Waico as a way to advance “AI for good and for all”. William Heidlage, senior director of technology at strategic advisory firm BowerGroupAsia, said Singapore was likely to evaluate Waico membership based on whether it would have a say in AI issues. “For Singapore, joining Waico is less about China and more about whether it can shape emerging AI governance from inside the room,” he said. Teo said on Wednesday that it was in Singapore’s interest to ensure AI interoperability, noting that diverging international standards would pose difficulties for companies based in the city state. Heidlage said the objectives of Waico and Pax Silica were complementary rather than contradictory for Singapore. “One seeks to prevent fragmentation in governance and the other seeks to prevent concentration in capability,” he said. Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said accepting Beijing’s invitation could give Singapore a larger say in shaping governance standards. “This could be useful for Singapore if the organisation ends up being substantive and independent.” Miguel Alberto Gomez, a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, noted that joining Waico would give Singapore greater access to AI technology that could not be developed domestically, while reducing the risk of over-dependence on the United States and its partners. But analysts cautioned that the decision could not be viewed independently of broader geopolitical friction. Growing competition between Washington and Beijing made the invitation “less straightforward than before”, said Chong, suggesting that dual membership could prompt the US to impose restrictions that Waico’s benefits might not offset. The invitation comes as countries face escalating pressure to choose between both superpowers in the AI race. While Pax Silica does not explicitly target China, its objective to reduce “coercive dependencies” is widely interpreted to reference China’s dominance and rare earths. Reuters reported last month that Washington was preparing to tell a dozen countries to pick sides, warning they would be excluded from Pax Silica if they were to sign up for the Chinese framework. Kazakhstan is the only nation so far with membership in both initiatives. Beijing, however, has said it firmly opposes forcing countries to take sides or creating bloc confrontation in AI. Joining Waico might also limit Singapore’s ability to engage with parties leaning strongly towards either AI bloc, Gomez said. “This is not a novel situation for Singapore, and ultimately it must prioritise its own strategic interests.” The city state, which has long maintained a stance of non-alignment, had to prioritise its own strategic interests while maintaining cordial relations with both powers, Gomez said. “I do not think this reality is lost on both the US and China. Moreover, I would think both are aware of the value of having Singapore on side in the long run, especially in this region.” Unified Asean position? While a collective Asean position on Waico and Pax Silica would give the 11-nation bloc greater bargaining power, analysts said a consensus among its members would be unlikely due to diverging national interests. Teo confirmed on Wednesday that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations had no position on either organisation. Chong said Asean members could wield greater influence in shaping regulations and norms for AI initiatives if they used their collective weight. “It could also have the option of setting its own standards, given the accumulated economic, population and geographic size of Asean,” he said. However, reaching an agreement would be challenging for a bloc operating on the principle of consensus. Tensions arising from competing AI frameworks could further strain internal cohesiveness, Chong added. Singapore and the Philippines are the only two Asean members in Pax Silica, which is widely perceived as an effort to isolate China from key technology supply chains. Five other Asean members – Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia and Myanmar – were among the 29 original signatories at Waico’s launch. A consolidated Asean position would require members to navigate competing interests and priorities, said Elina Noor, a non-resident scholar in the Asia programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “In theory, it’s possible for Asean to form a common or consolidated position, but in reality, its members compete with each other on both the supply chain and governance fronts,” she said.

As Singapore weighs joining China-led AI body, does it risk US retaliation?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Joining the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation gives Singapore influence, but may affect its Pax Silica role, analysts say

Joining the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation gives Singapore influence, but may affect its Pax Silica role, analysts say