For India, Bangladesh’s talk of joining ‘Islamic Nato’ raises red flags

Bangladesh’s potential entry into a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan could give Dhaka fresh leverage in its dealings with India, but observers warn the move risks fracturing its long-standing strategic neutrality and alarming a hawkish New Delhi. Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman told parliament on August 27 that Bangladesh was considering joining the Mecca pact, a security framework signed last month. Earlier reports citing unnamed sources said the invitation originated from Riyadh. State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humayun Kabir also told reporters: “If there is a security arrangement among Islamic nations in the Middle East, it is not unusual for us to consider participating. It is being viewed positively.” Under the agreement signed on August 7 in Mecca, an armed attack against any signatory is treated as an attack against all members – earning the arrangement the informal moniker “Islamic Nato.” Shafi Md. Mostofa, an associate professor at the University of Dhaka, said that joining the pact would compel India to be “much more cautious and respectful while dealing with [Dhaka].” Bilateral relations have frayed in recent months amid the continued exile of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina in India, Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s delayed visit to Delhi and ongoing border and migration disputes. But Shafi cautioned that formal membership would severely test Bangladesh’s traditional diplomatic balancing act. “A formal collective-defence commitment would be qualitatively different from Bangladesh’s existing issue-based defence partnerships,” he said, referring to current defence ties centred on practical cooperation such as technology transfers and training rather than formal alliances. He added that Delhi would be deeply concerned given the prominent role played by its arch-rival Pakistan. “Joining would inevitably reduce some of the ambiguity that has traditionally allowed Bangladesh to maintain productive relations simultaneously with competing powers,” Shafi said, particularly amid the current Middle East instability involving Israel, Iran and the United States, alongside the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Elizabeth Roche, an associate professor of practice at the O.P. Jindal Global University’s Jindal School of International Affairs, said joining a Middle Eastern security bloc could give Bangladesh significant “leverage”. “[Dhaka] can be seen as part of a perceived group of influential nations,” Roche said, adding that Bangladesh’s large Middle East diaspora is a critical economic factor. Around 5 million Bangladeshi citizens live and work in the six Arab monarchies that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council, including 2.64 million in Saudi Arabia alone. Roche added that an anxious India had been closely watching Bangladesh’s post-August 2024 rapprochement with Pakistan. Since Hasina’s ousting, Dhaka has revived high-level diplomatic engagements, eased trade restrictions and resumed direct maritime links with Islamabad for the first time since 1971. Sohini Bose, an associate fellow at Observer Research Foundation think tank, said joining the bloc aligned with the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) historic tendency to emphasise Islamic solidarity. “In the current context, it will allow the country to break free of its traditional geopolitical associations with India, China or the US and forge an alternate identity,” Bose said. But she questioned whether Bangladesh – still recovering from severe domestic economic strain, high inflation and slumps in exports and investment – could realistically honour mutual defence obligations. “A practical revisit of its domestic capabilities and development aspirations is necessary before any commitments are made,” Bose said, warning that closer military ties could draw Pakistan nearer to India’s eastern border and the Bay of Bengal – a region Delhi views as its “primary area of interest”. Syed Munir Khasru, chairman of the international think tank IPAG Asia-Pacific, said that regional volatility and oil trade disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz highlighted Bangladesh’s need for stronger security arrangements. “As the world’s third-largest Muslim-majority country by population, Bangladesh joining such an arrangement would give the grouping greater geopolitical and strategic weight,” Khasru said. While Saudi Arabia is central to Bangladesh’s remittance economy, Turkey has become a key defence provider, supplying military hardware and training. He added that as the UN’s second-largest troop contributor, Bangladesh would bring institutional expertise to the pact rather than acting merely as a recipient of aid. Still, Khasru said that Dhaka must balance strategic opportunity against exposure to foreign rivalries. “The objective should be to gain additional strategic options without creating new vulnerabilities or turning Bangladesh into a party to rivalries that do not directly serve its national interest,” he said.

For India, Bangladesh’s talk of joining ‘Islamic Nato’ raises red flags

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Joining the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani security alliance offers Dhaka leverage, but could also threaten its non-aligned stance

Joining the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani security alliance offers Dhaka leverage, but could also threaten its non-aligned stance