US base dispute hangs over Japan’s Okinawa governor election

Okinawa’s governor election next month is set to be a major test of whether Japan’s ruling party can win over voters from a prefecture that has long opposed its security agenda and the heavy US military presence on its islands. A victory by Genta Koja, the Liberal Democratic Party-backed candidate, would likely help smooth ties between Okinawa and Tokyo and weaken resistance against the planned relocation of the US Marine Corps’ Futenma base within the prefecture, according to analysts. Such an outcome would boost efforts by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s LDP to convince Okinawans that closer cooperation with Tokyo can deliver stronger economic support. The LDP is preparing to go all out to support Koja in the election scheduled on September 13, according to Japanese media reports. The ruling party hopes the 42-year-old will replace incumbent governor Denny Tamaki, an independent politician backed by the All Okinawa coalition, which includes the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and the Social Democratic Party. Koja, a former vice-mayor of Naha, the capital of Okinawa, is also backed by other parties including Komeito and the Democratic Party for the People. “We’ll help Koja realise his election pledges with all our strength,” said Yasutoshi Nishimura, chairman of the LDP’s election strategy committee, at a rally for Koja’s candidacy in Urasoe, a city in Okinawa, on August 20. Announcing his policy agenda on August 14 in Naha, Koja pledged to double prefectural income and achieve an average economic growth rate of 7 to 8 per cent over his four-year term. However, he did not mention the controversial project to relocate the US Marine Corps’ Futenma base to the Henoko district in Nago city. The relocation has dragged on for years due to fierce opposition from residents, who demand that the base leave Okinawa rather than move to another part of the prefecture. They say that Okinawa bears an unfair burden of hosting the most American military facilities in Japan. Japan is seeking the relocation to reduce safety and noise hazards in a densely populated urban area, while keeping the US military presence in Okinawa. Raymond Yamamoto, an associate professor at Aarhus University, said the election centred around Okinawa’s relationship with the central government. Tamaki represents the continuation of the All Okinawa coalition, which has resisted the relocation and challenged Tokyo’s security agenda. “Koja, by contrast, is backed by the LDP and seeks to restore a more cooperative relationship with the central government,” Yamamoto said. “His candidacy can be seen as an alternative to Tamaki’s confrontational approach towards Tokyo.” Yamamoto noted that the LDP had struggled to win the Okinawan governorship for over a decade. The last time a candidate backed by the LDP won an election in the prefecture was in 2010, when Hirokazu Nakaima, a businessman and former public servant, won re-election. The US military presence in Okinawa has become increasingly important for Japan as it seeks to boost its defence of its southwestern islands amid rising regional tensions, according to Yamamoto. “A victory would send a strong national signal that the LDP has returned to political dominance under Takaichi’s leadership,” Yamamoto said. Ra Mason, an associate professor of international relations and Japanese foreign policy at the University of East Anglia, said given the LDP’s tactics to “win at all costs” in local elections, Koja could potentially unseat Tamaki. With half of the facility in Henoko having been built, the “damage” was already done, said Mason, author of Okinawa: Great Power Competition and the Keystone of the Pacific, with the issue having been “relegated to a symbolic struggle”. “An LDP-affiliated prefectural governor will likely serve to enable further fortification and militarisation of the Okinawan islands and the Ryukyu Island chain,” Mason said. Okinawa is the largest island of the Ryukyu Islands, a chain stretching southwest from Kyushu to Taiwan. One of the biggest challenges Koja faces is whether he can persuade Okinawans that his links to the LDP will lead to higher investment in the prefecture that benefits ordinary citizens living there, instead of just large companies, according to Mason. “[These entities] have historically sucked profits back to stakeholders on the Japanese mainland.” Consistently ranking last among Japan’s 47 prefectures for annual average income, Okinawa has almost double the mainland’s unemployment rate and the highest rate of non-regular employment. Benjamin Ascione, a lecturer at Waseda University’s Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, said these indicators would favour Koja, who had argued that closer cooperation with Tokyo could deliver greater economic benefits. Ascione said the LDP was in a strong position in the election as it had devoted significant time and resources to win over voters, adding that Koja had a good chance of winning given that legal opposition to the Henoko relocation plan appeared to have run its course, with Okinawa losing almost all its lawsuits against Tokyo over the move. “This significantly alters the significance of a vote for Tamaki as he no longer has an effective legal mechanism to prevent the central government from proceeding with the Henoko plan,” he said. The fragmentation of the All Okinawa coalition opposing the relocation and the shift in attention towards cost-of-living issues would also put Koja in good stead, Ascione said. “Even if Tamaki wins, he would have a visibly weaker and more divided coalition,” he added. Calling it premature to call Koja the clear favourite, Ascione said: “The race remains competitive, with neither candidate having established a decisive lead.” Okinawa hosts about 25,000 American service members across 31 US military facilities, making it a key hub for Washington’s power projection in the Pacific. Japan and the US have been holding talks on cost-sharing to maintain the American military presence in the country. Having Okinawans on board over the US military issue would help soothe tensions between the prefecture and Tokyo, according to Ascione. “However, from an alliance-management perspective, the effect would be primarily symbolic as it would not fundamentally alter Washington’s broader demands on Japanese defence spending and burden-sharing,” he said.

US base dispute hangs over Japan’s Okinawa governor election

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The LDP is mounting an all-out campaign to unseat the incumbent, wagering cash promises can quiet anti-base opposition

The LDP is mounting an all-out campaign to unseat the incumbent, wagering cash promises can quiet anti-base opposition