What is really behind Japan’s planned cabinet shake-up?

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi remains in a strong position despite a poll showing falling support for her administration, ahead of an expected cabinet reshuffle to bolster her coalition government. A new cabinet could help the government win over voters, reward ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers and win the support of junior coalition partner Ishin no Kai, analysts have said. Takaichi is expected to embark on such a move in mid- or late September, according to reports by Kyodo News and other Japanese media, citing government and ruling party sources. If confirmed, it would be Takaichi’s first cabinet reshuffle since taking office last October as she potentially eyes another term as LDP president in the 2027 party leadership election. The timing of the reshuffle is likely to be determined by her schedule in the coming weeks. Her government plans to adopt a tax reform package, including a consumption tax cut for food in mid-September, while Takaichi is expected to attend a UN General Assembly session in the United States later that month. “A personnel reshuffle is likely after [the adoption of] the tax system reform package,” an LDP source reportedly said. A Yomiuri Shimbun survey released on Monday shows the cabinet’s approval fell to 56 per cent – the lowest since it took office in October – from 57 per cent in the previous survey last month. The cabinet’s approval rating peaked at 73 per cent in the newspaper’s survey in December. Among the reasons cited for the decline were frustration over persistent inflation, including rising energy costs, and public scepticism of the government’s economic measures. Voters were also said to be anxious about the government’s debt and funding gaps tied to the proposed consumption tax cuts on food. Rintaro Nishimura, a Tokyo-based senior associate in the Japan practice of The Asia Group strategic advisory firm, said Takaichi might be hoping that a “fresh-look” cabinet could help stem the decline in approval. “This is a common practice used by prime ministers to shift the focus away from the stale political situation and put the attention on the new faces joining the cabinet. Public approval is critical to Takaichi’s hold over the LDP, especially given her lack of political foundations within the party,” he said. “If lawmakers smell blood, the criticism will become more open.” At least 70 LDP lawmakers who have served around three to five terms in office are aspiring to become part of the cabinet, either as minister, minister of state or parliamentary vice-minister, according to Nishimura. Takaichi would likely not undergo a major overhaul of the cabinet, he said, with key members including Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara likely to stay put. “Takaichi could use the reshuffle to bring in new lawmakers, thus fostering a sense of loyalty among these lawmakers ahead of next year’s presidential election.” While they might not be household names, “having the rank-and-file on your side doesn’t hurt”, Nishimura said. Toru Yoshida, a professor of policy studies at Doshisha University, said the reshuffle could involve a member of the Japan Innovation Party, also known as Ishin no Kai. According to Yoshida, an Ishin lawmaker is likely to be added to the cabinet. “As the LDP does not have the majority in the upper house, and as Komeito went out, it is crucial for the government to have a reliable partner to get bills passed,” Yoshida said. The LDP and Ishin formed a coalition agreement in October, with the smaller party cooperating with the Takaichi administration from outside the cabinet. That same month, Komeito ended its 26-year partnership with Takaichi’s party following slush-fund and corruption scandals involving LDP lawmakers and differing values on security and diplomacy. Yoshida said Takaichi would have to compromise with Ishin to prevent the smaller party leaving the ruling coalition, citing the proposal for a second capital city. “The party was established at first instance for that purpose, and it won’t do any good to stay in the coalition if they aim to be a larger political force,” he added. The proposal to designate a backup capital city was passed last month, aiming to maintain core government and administrative functions in the event of Tokyo being incapacitated by a major natural disaster. Osaka-based Ishin has long backed the proposal and pushed for the city to serve as a secondary economic and administrative hub. The approval of the relevant bill in the Diet was a key promise made by the LDP to secure Ishin’s backing for the ruling coalition. Mikitaka Masuyama, a political-science professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said a key focus of any cabinet reshuffle would be the post of LDP secretary general, currently held by Shunichi Suzuki, the brother-in-law of the party’s influential vice-president and former prime minister Taro Aso, whose backing would be crucial for Takaichi’s party leadership election next year. If Suzuki were to hold on to the role, it would be seen as “maintaining the status quo and pursuing a path of unity within the party”, Masuyama said. Suzuki has faced internal and public backlash for endorsing LDP candidates previously implicated in political fund scandals, which critics say has undermined the party’s credibility. According to Nishimura, Suzuki has been struggling with policy coordination between the party and the government as well as with opposition parties. “Suzuki is an offering to Aso, but there could be negotiations with Aso to give him something else in place of the secretary general role. Takaichi does need someone more capable in that role,” he said. Key positions up for grabs would likely include the internal affairs and communications minister; economy, trade and industry minister; and minister of state for economic and fiscal policy, Nishimura said. These positions are currently held by Yoshimasa Hayashi, Ryosei Akazawa and Minoru Kiuchi, respectively. Hayashi has expressed an interest in running for LDP president, so he could be left out of the next cabinet, Nishimura said. “He is not particularly loyal to Takaichi and not in a ministerial position that absolutely needs continuity or him in that role,” he said. Akazawa, meanwhile, is a “leftover” from the previous administration, according to Nishimura – tasked with implementing a US-Japan investment agreement as part of their tariff negotiations As Akazawa was not “Takaichi’s pick”, he could be on his way out, he said, although lingering uncertainties over the bilateral trade ties could persuade the prime minister to keep him in her cabinet. “We are seeing in the news that he may be travelling to Washington early next month. That could be his last job or a sign that he is likely to stay put,” he added. Having Kiuchi stay in the cabinet “wouldn’t hurt”, as he was a “loyalist” and one of the chief architects of Takaichi’s economic agenda, Nishimura said. “Kiuchi would be effective even without the ministerial role, which is not exactly a prominent role given no ministerial staff is attached to him, so replacing him wouldn’t necessarily mean he has fallen out of favour,” he added. “He could actually be taken out to help Takaichi on the party side as a key policy decision-maker.”

What is really behind Japan’s planned cabinet shake-up?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}With voters anxious over inflation, swapping cabinet faces offers a convenient distraction from economic pain

With voters anxious over inflation, swapping cabinet faces offers a convenient distraction from economic pain