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Julian Ryall

Japan is preparing to spend more than ever on defence as analysts say Tokyo is being forced to respond to a convergence of regional threats, fast-changing military technology and growing uncertainty over the reliability of the US security umbrella.
The defence ministry is preparing to request a record budget of 8.9 trillion yen (US$56.1 billion) for the 2027 financial year, with major outlays planned for drones, AI-enabled command systems, long-range missiles and support for Japan’s domestic defence industry.
The request comes as three key national security documents are being reviewed, with updated position papers due before the end of the year, raising expectations that spending could grow even further.
Analysts say Japan’s rising defence spending reflects several factors that have emerged since the current defence build-up programme, covering 2023 to 2027, was unveiled.
These include a deteriorating security situation in the Indo-Pacific region, lessons learned from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, fading confidence in the US as a reliable security partner and a recognition that Japan needs to do more to guarantee its own safety.

“The US has, since last year, been aggressively pushing allies not only in Nato but also here in the Asia-Pacific region to significantly increase their defence spending,” William Yang, a Taiwan-based analyst for the International Crisis Group, told This Week in Asia.
Yang said Japan realised it needed to “upgrade its domestic industrial base in light of the changing situation in the region”, citing the recent move by the US to scale back joint military drills with South Korea.
“Tokyo has seen how Seoul has been treated, and that has just reaffirmed that this US administration is unpredictable and that long-standing security agreements are no longer as rock-solid as they used to be,” Yang said.
It will also not have escaped Tokyo’s notice that THAAD interceptors have been withdrawn from the region to be redeployed to the Middle East, where the US is embroiled in a situation that is increasingly looking like it will be extended and expensive, while the USS George Washington has also just arrived. Analysts point out that there are presently no US carrier groups in the western Pacific.
The defence ministry requested 8.84 trillion yen for the current financial year, which runs until March 31, with subsequent spending designed to give the Self-Defence Forces the capability to respond to new methods of warfare.
A portion of the funds will support the development of a state-of-the-art AI-powered system for decision-making at the Joint Operations Command, along with a new cloud server to handle highly classified information.
Money will also be made available for the development of long-range unmanned aerial vehicles capable of carrying long-range missiles, as well as stealthy underwater drones designed for missions including surveillance and payload delivery.

The ministry intends to develop a new generation of hypersonic missiles that can be launched from submarines and also build interceptor drones that are a cheaper alternative to surface-to-air missiles and have proved successful on the battlefields of Ukraine.
Funds will also be allocated to research into high-powered laser and microwave weapons and organisational reforms that will improve cooperation with foreign partners.
There will also be strong investment in the defence industry, with the creation of a system in which the government can put money into small and medium-sized enterprises that are developing new equipment. The move is in part designed to guarantee the ability to supply the armed forces with materiel during national emergencies and avoid running low on stocks – a lesson the US is learning in the Middle East.
Japan’s increased spending comes at a time when tensions in the region are being ratcheted up even further. The Russian Pacific Fleet announced on Thursday that it had conducted live-fire exercises off the disputed Kuril Islands, simulating an attack on enemy ships. The drills involved a nuclear-powered submarine.
On Monday, Japan’s coastguard said a Chinese research vessel had been spotted extending a wire-like object into the sea within Japan’s exclusive economic zone off Okinawa prefecture, an activity Tokyo said had not been approved.
There have been a number of similar incidents in recent months, while Chinese coastguard ships regularly enter waters around the disputed Diaoyu Islands, also known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan.
The uninhabited islands are claimed by China but currently controlled by Japan, who says there is no sovereignty dispute over them. Beijing says its patrols are lawful operations in Chinese waters.
On Thursday, North Korea fired at least 10 short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan, or East Sea, despite an offer by Trump to resume discussions with Kim Jong-un’s government.

“Increased military spending is a global trend at present as governments realise the need to be more self-reliant as other powers are also pursuing greater capabilities and the US is prioritising its own needs,” said Yang, pointing out that the Taiwanese government this week proposed its own record defence budget.
Japan appears divided over greater defence outlays at a time of deepening economic pressure. About 27,000 people joined a rally outside the Diet in Tokyo’s Nagatacho political district last month under the banner “We Want Our Future”, organisers said.
The protest was part of a broader anti-war and anti-government movement that has criticised the Sanae Takaichi administration for prioritising military expansion, constitutional revision and looser arms export rules over measures to ease the cost of living.
Demonstrators carried placards defending Japan’s pacifist constitution and opposing moves they said would bring the country closer to war, while similar actions were held elsewhere in Japan, according to local media reports.


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Japan

Japan seeks record US$56 billion defence push amid growing regional tensions

Japan Ground Self-Defence Force soldiers fire a howitzer during a live fire exercise in Gotemba in June. Photo: AFP

US Apache attack helicopters are parked at US Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, south of Seoul, South Korea, on Friday. Photo: EPA/Yonhap

Russian-held, Japanese-claimed islands off Hokkaido, known as the Northern Territories in Japan and the Southern Kurils in Russia, in 2019. Photo: Kyodo

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of a North Korean missile test, at a train station in Seoul on Thursday. Photo: TNS

The main entrance of the Defence Ministry of Japan in Tokyo. Photo: AP

Japan faces ‘nightmare scenario’ as it struggles to defend ICC judge

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has described the sanctions on ICC president Tomoko Akane as “deeply regrettable”. Photo: Kyodo

Tomoko Akane, president of the International Criminal Court. Photo: Kyodo

The International Criminal Court in The Hague. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called the ICC a “corrupt and fatally politicised supranational court”. Photo: AFP

Will Putin’s Kuril Islands visit push Japan closer to Ukraine?

Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi (right) and his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Sybiga pose after a signing ceremony in Tokyo on July 1. Photo: AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Sakhalin Region Governor Valery Limarenko (right) at an airport on Iturup Island, the largest of the Kuril Islands, last Thursday. Photo: Sputnik/Kremlin/AP

Akira Muto, Japan’s ambassador to Russia, arrives at the foreign ministry in Moscow on Tuesday after being summoned over Japanese officials’ criticism of Putin’s Kuril Islands visit. Photo: AFP

A drone view shows vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam in Oman on June 15. Photo: Reuters

Vladimir Putin oversees the final stage of naval drills off far eastern Sakhalin Island near Japan from onboard a Russian guided missile on August 12. Photo: AFP

Subaru brand cars prepared for export are seen parked at Kawasaki Port in Japan’s Kanagawa prefecture on Monday. Photo: AFP

An LNG tanker ship is seen moored at a terminal in Japan’s Chiba prefecture on July 22. Japan imports roughly 9 per cent of its LNG from Russia. Photo: AFP

Japan eyes deeper defence ties with Australia, India to ease supply chain concerns

Type 90 battle tanks of the Japan Ground Self-Defence Force are seen during a live fire exercise in Gotemba on June 7. Photo: AFP

Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (right) is expected to visit Australia and India this week to advance defence cooperation. Photo: EPA / Jiji Press

JS Mikuma, a Mogami-class stealth frigate, is seen anchored at the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force naval base in Yokosuka in September 2025. Photo: Pool via AP

An F-2 fighter jet takes part in a live fire exercise conducted by the Japan Ground Self-Defence Force in Gotemba in May 2022. Photo: AFP

Indian military personnel stand by Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets at a military air base in southwestern France in November 2025. Photo: AFP

US-led drills edge Japan and South Korea closer on defence

A team is seen at mission control console inside a South Korean maritime patrol aircraft during a joint exercise as part of the 2026 Rimpac exercise near Honolulu. Photo: The Korea Times

A South Korean Dosan Ahn Chang-ho-class submarine moored in Hawaii during the 2026 Rimpac exercise. Photo: The Korea Times

A Japanese soldier takes part in a joint exercise between the Japanese and the Peruvian navies at the 2024 Rimpac exercise in Waimanalo, Hawaii. Photo: Reuters

US marines take part in an evacuation operation during the 2026 Rimpac exercise in Hawaii on July 24. Photo: AFP

A rocket launcher fires a missile during a test overseen by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in North Korea on June 25. Photo: KCNA/Reuters

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Major outlays are being planned for drones, AI-enabled command systems, long-range missiles and support for the domestic defence industry


Major outlays are being planned for drones, AI-enabled command systems, long-range missiles and support for the domestic defence industry.


Japan seeks record US$56 billion defence push amid growing regional tensions

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Major outlays are being planned for drones, AI-enabled command systems, long-range missiles and support for the domestic defence industry

Major outlays are being planned for drones, AI-enabled command systems, long-range missiles and support for the domestic defence industry