Will Thailand’s potential BrahMos deal fuel ‘mini-arms race’ with Cambodia?

Thailand’s possible acquisition of a supersonic cruise missile from India would help the Southeast Asian country defend its interests against Cambodia and could even fuel a “mini-arms race” between the two neighbours, analysts have said. The BrahMos system could strengthen Thailand’s deterrence at sea while giving Bangkok more options as tensions with Cambodia persist and neighbouring navies modernise, they added. Several defence-focused news outlets have reported that Thailand is evaluating the purchase of India’s BrahMos missiles as part of efforts to upgrade its military capabilities. The reported interest followed the 10th Thailand-India Defence Dialogue in Bangkok in June, where both sides pledged to deepen cooperation in defence manufacturing after elevating their bilateral ties last year. The BrahMos is a supersonic cruise missile that can be launched from ships, submarines, aircraft or land-based platforms, making it attractive to navies seeking to complicate an adversary’s operations near coastlines, choke points and disputed waters. India has promoted the BrahMos to Southeast Asian militaries as it seeks to expand defence exports and deepen security ties with countries wary of growing maritime risks. The Philippines and Vietnam have already signed deals to buy the cruise missile, while Indonesia has moved forward with procurement agreements. Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute in the United Arab Emirates, said the BrahMos’ range of about 290km enabled Thailand to defend its interests against Cambodia in the Overlapping Claims Area. “This is especially true if the Thais deploy these missiles facing the Gulf of Thailand,” Rahman said. “These missiles would have a deterrence effect against the Cambodians, and the new warships they will be operating.” Relations between Bangkok and Phnom Penh have strained in recent months following deadly land and maritime border clashes. The deployment of Chinese-built warships and upgraded naval infrastructure in Cambodia in recent years – specifically at the Ream Naval Base – has also amplified regional security anxieties. Rahman warned that the region could witness a “mini-arms race” between the two neighbours given their unsettled overlapping land and maritime disputes. “This is something Asean should monitor,” he said, referring to the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc. “It is worrying because the arms race could lead to a major military conflict that destabilises Southeast Asia.” Land and maritime disputes between the two neighbours remain unresolved due to conflicting colonial-era mapping, energy resources in overlapping areas, recent deadly military clashes, and a disagreement over whether to turn to bilateral talks or international legal frameworks to resolve these issues. Cambodia was turning to China for larger warships, Rahman said, noting that Beijing had delivered the first of two Type 056 Jiangdao-class guided-missile corvettes to Phnom Penh in April. “These are more advanced warships than what the Cambodians are used to operating,” he added. Maritime strategist and geopolitical risk analyst Hadrien Saperstein said BrahMos would address the Thai navy’s long-standing need to operate across two disconnected maritime theatres: the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. “Mobile shore-based cruise missile batteries deployed on both coasts and connected through a common surveillance, targeting and command system would help the navy treat them as a single operational theatre,” said Saperstein, an adjunct professor at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas Honors College. “This could be a potential game changer, particularly when combined with the navy’s planned acquisition of modern frigates.” As part of a long-term expansion goal, the Thai navy plans to expand from its four current active frigates to eight by 2037. With Manila, Hanoi and Jakarta acquiring BrahMos, the northern part of the South China Sea and maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca will eventually be covered. Bangkok’s procurement, according to Saperstein, will extend the coverage into southern parts of the disputed waterway and the northeastern entrance to the Andaman Sea. “Collectively, these systems would increase the costs and risks confronting any great-power navy attempting surface operations near Southeast Asian coastlines,” Saperstein said. While this would not immediately constitute an integrated Asean “missile network”, it could produce the functional equivalent of “an Asean missile wall”, Saperstein added. Tita Sanglee, an associate fellow with the Thailand Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, said Thailand’s interest in BrahMos was driven by operational needs and a “security dilemma”. With neighbouring navies undergoing rapid upgrading, there are concerns that Thailand’s long coastlines may not be adequately protected. “The BrahMos is expected to be something of a force multiplier, helping enhance deterrence in vulnerable coastal areas,” she said, adding that the Upper Gulf of Thailand, also known as the Bay of Bangkok, could be prioritised amid tensions with Phnom Penh. Buying BrahMos through India – an important regional power that maintains frequent naval exercises with Thailand – also means access to Russian technology without triggering serious Western “pushback”, according to Sanglee. “With the Royal Thai Navy already sourcing a lot of Chinese arms, turning to the BrahMos seems more about balancing,” she said, but added that integrating a completely new weapons system would be operationally difficult. The Thai navy has secured major procurement contracts from China, most notably a high-profile agreement for a Yuan-class S26T submarine and a massive Type 071E amphibious transport dock. However, the process has faced prolonged delays, public debate and modifications due to a German engine export ban, economic cutbacks and protracted debates over technical substitutions. “The [Thai] public cannot help but question the viability of the procurement strategy,” Sanglee said. “It is more likely that BrahMos is brought up as a sort of negotiation tactic or benchmark to get better deals from the US and China, whose platforms the [navy] already knows well.”

Will Thailand’s potential BrahMos deal fuel ‘mini-arms race’ with Cambodia?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say BrahMos could boost Thailand’s deterrence at sea and give it more options as tensions with Cambodia persist

Analysts say BrahMos could boost Thailand’s deterrence at sea and give it more options as tensions with Cambodia persist