‘Islamic Nato’? Why Pakistan’s new defence pact has India on edge

A new defence pact between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey has raised questions in New Delhi over whether Islamabad could use the agreement to build wider security ties with Muslim-majority countries in India’s neighbourhood, analysts have said. The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on Friday, states that an armed attack on any one of the three countries would be treated as an attack on all of them. The tripartite agreement followed a bilateral one between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed last September. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif on Saturday described the pact as a possible model for a wider military alliance among Islamic countries, comparing such a grouping to Nato. While Islamic nations are still more likely to prioritise national interests over religious solidarity, analysts say Delhi will need to be cautious because Pakistan has framed the pact as a potential platform for broader cooperation. The development comes as Bangladesh explores buying JF-17 Thunder fighter jets – co-developed by China and Pakistan – from Islamabad as part of Dhaka’s military modernisation plans. High-level air force talks and discussions regarding a potential defence pact have taken place between the two countries, alongside reported steps such as training simulator transfers. Srinivaasan Balakrishnan, director of strategic engagements and partnerships at the Delhi-based Indic Researchers Forum, said the pact could evolve into “a broader ideological or identity-based military bloc” extending its influence to the Indian Ocean region, where India acted as the primary security provider. “The real strategic question, therefore, is not whether an ‘Islamic Nato’ is being created today,” he said. “The question is whether one can emerge incrementally, through defence agreements, military exercises, intelligence sharing and arms transfers.” Analysts said India would need to keep a close eye on Bangladesh. “Bangladesh is certainly worth watching closely, as the Indian establishment is doing at the moment. Its defence ties with both Pakistan and Turkey have certainly grown recently,” said Uday Chandra, a political-science professor at India’s Ashoka University. Pakistan has been actively exploring and expanding into new markets for its defence equipment to bolster its foreign reserves and stimulate its struggling economy. However, it would still be a stretch for Dhaka to formally join the Mecca pact, even if it bought arms and defence equipment or conducted joint military exercises with Pakistan, Chandra said. “It is possible for Bangladesh to join but it’d be a major leap into an uncertain future.” India has taken steps to stabilise ties after a period of strain with Bangladesh that followed the ousting of Sheikh Hasina two years ago, whose government had worked closely with Delhi. Indian security and intelligence agencies have ongoing concerns about Islamic militant groups potentially using or establishing operational spaces within Bangladesh, particularly following political transitions and shifts in regional dynamics. Tensions resurfaced recently after Hasina, who has been staying in Delhi, held a virtual media interaction on August 5, following which Bangladesh expressed concern that her address undermined stability in the country. Experts say such concerns could be temporary as trade restrictions imposed over the last two years are likely to be gradually eased. India is Bangladesh’s second-largest trade partner. Bangladesh and the Maldives – also a Muslim-majority nation – have significant economic, developmental and security ties with India and participate in regional partnerships and connectivity in the Indian Ocean region. Balakrishnan pointed out that should either nation join any formal or informal alignment with a Pakistan-centred mutual defence framework, it would introduce a significant new variable into the Bay of Bengal and wider Indian Ocean security calculus. However, Chandra said the Maldives was “less likely” to join such a pact than Bangladesh, given its recent calls for a revival of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) under Indian leadership. Saarc, which promotes economic development and integration, includes India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives. It stalled in 2016 after a summit in Pakistan was cancelled, triggered by an Indian boycott following a terror attack in Uri. Following a tense period driven by the initial “India Out” stance of the Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu, diplomatic relations have turned around, highlighted by high-level state visits, financial support packages, and a first round of negotiations last month on a free-trade agreement. Analysts said the Mecca pact remained far from the Nato-style alliance invoked by Asif, with differing positions among regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates likely to limit its expansion even in the Middle East. Satinder Kumar Saini, former vice-chief of the Indian Army staff, said the Mecca pact was “more about political signalling than a commitment to defend each other’s territories”. The pact had more leverage in the Middle East due to Islamabad’s nuclear capability, but Saini said Saudi Arabia and Turkey were unlikely to join a future India-Pakistan conflict directly. “India has cultivated Saudi Arabia and the UAE assiduously since 2015 with focused outreach, energy deals and expatriate welfare. This pact complicates that balance. India needs to continue to engage the Saudis, enlarge and deepen our bilateral relationship and interdependence,” he said. Priyajit Debsarkar, an independent analyst, said Pakistan was seeking to leverage its reputation as a military power among Middle East nations following the failure of US-Iran peace talks, but the Mecca pact was unlikely to be extended to countries like Bangladesh soon because Islamabad would be wary about upsetting the US. “How this will go down with the Americans is what to watch out for because the Americans might not be very happy with this alternate alliance being set up,” he said. Debsarkar points to Pakistan’s dependence on multilateral aid such as the International Monetary Fund, where the US is the largest contributor. Pakistan’s economy relies heavily on IMF bailouts to prevent sovereign default and stabilise its foreign exchange reserves. “Pakistan will have to be very careful about playing its cards correctly,” he said.

‘Islamic Nato’? Why Pakistan’s new defence pact has India on edge

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say the pact could evolve into a broader ideological military bloc that could extend its influence to the Indian Ocean region

Analysts say the pact could evolve into a broader ideological military bloc that could extend its influence to the Indian Ocean region