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US, Israel war on Iran
This Week in AsiaPolitics

How US became trapped in ‘dreadful situation’ of its own making over Iran war

With Iran holding firm to its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, Trump faces one of two choices: capitulate or risk a ‘forever war’, experts say

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US President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the East Room of the White House on July 16. Photo: Getty Images
A vessel is seen off the coast of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates on Monday. Photo: AFP
A man pumps petrol at an Exxon station in Washington on March 5. The price of oil has surged amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Photo: Reuters
Tom Hussain
The United States is staring a historic “strategic defeat” in the face five months after launching the Iran war at Israel’s behest, according to Middle East observers.
The Islamic Republic is unlikely to fully relinquish its new-found hegemony over the Strait of Hormuz, despite US President Donald Trump’s rhetorical mix of daily ultimatums and optimism about a deal, they say. Doing so would be giving up its leverage over the global economy – by far its greatest weapon in a war it cannot win militarily.

Having concluded that its June 17 memorandum of understanding with the US is all but dead, Iran is prepared to absorb all the military punishment the Trump administration can dish out.

Far from capitulating, the Revolutionary Guards and their Axis of Resistance allies across the Middle East have continued to escalate the conflict, targeting energy infrastructure and supply chains in the Red Sea, Suez Canal and the eastern Mediterranean. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt have all been targeted, and Syria could be next.

Vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Oman’s port city of Khasab on May 17. Photo:AFP
Vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Oman’s port city of Khasab on May 17. Photo:AFP
Late on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said negotiations with Oman on a proposed reopening of the strait were “forward-looking” and a deal would be struck “if certain third parties do not obstruct this process”.
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