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Aidan Jones

Sanctioned and wanted for war crimes in the West and reviled at home by the millions fighting his army, Myanmar’s leader Min Aung Hlaing is this week set for a red-carpet welcome in Thailand, as the diplomatic deep freeze begins to thaw.
The former general toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in a 2021 coup, sparking a civil war that has killed an estimated 100,000 people – mostly civilians – and cratered its economy, which had only just opened up after five decades of military rule.
Democracy champion Suu Kyi was arrested and made her first public appearance in over two years on Monday – a headline-stealing photo opportunity coming just days before the president’s state visit to Thailand.
Min Aung Hlaing begins his two-day trip to Bangkok on Thursday, his first since a controversial general election held only in military-controlled areas earlier this year.
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul called on Tuesday for a “calibrated re-engagement” with Myanmar, as his country walks a diplomatic tightrope between talking directly to a volatile neighbour over cross-border issues such as scams, toxic pollution and the economy and Asean’s more guarded approach.


For now, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations still bars Myanmar from its full summits, holding on to a five-point agreement that commits Naypyidaw to ending its violent campaign against its civilian population.
But Min Aung Hlaing, emboldened by his presidency and his army shoring up territory from pro-democracy rebels and ethnic armed groups who two years ago appeared on the cusp of victory, has consistently shunned that consensus.
With the military secure in power, Bangkok has little choice but to engage with Naypyidaw, according to experts.
“Thailand’s framing of a ‘dual-track approach’ – practical cooperation on scams, drugs, border security and haze while nominally supporting the [five-point consensus] – is straight up pragmatism,” said Richard Horsey, Crisis Group’s senior Asia adviser.
This allowed Bangkok to engage on the issues “that impact it directly … while Min Aung Hlaing gets the optics of his first visit to Thailand as president, and another step towards normalisation on his terms”, Horsey said.


Thailand is also cautiously exploring a role as a bridgehead back into Asean for Myanmar, reasoning that continued isolation of a government cemented in power in Naypyidaw is fruitless.
In the four months since becoming president, Min Aung Hlaing has met Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as powerful Asian neighbours allow him back into the diplomatic fold “without demanding anything in return”, according to Horsey.
Min Aung Hlaing’s new-found swagger was “real … and it’s clear where it’s coming from”, Horsey said. “From Min Aung Hlaing’s perspective, Asean should simply follow China and India’s lead.”
‘Legitimacy campaign’
However, there are “no real positives from engaging with Min Aung Hlaing like he is a normal head of government when he is the face of a military of widespread and ongoing human rights violations”, said Chit Seng, a senior human rights specialist at Fortify Rights.
If Thailand wanted to engage Min Aung Hlaing, “they should use this opportunity to show that engagement and accountability are not mutually exclusive”, she added. “I hope that Thailand will at least ask him to end attacks on civilians.”
Min Aung Hlaing is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague for crimes against humanity committed during the genocide of the Rohingya Muslim minority. He is also sanctioned by the US, UK and EU for the 2021 coup.
The government’s release of photos of Suu Kyi meeting the Red Cross country head was a deflection tactic, Chit Seng said. “He’s on this legitimacy campaign. I hope Thailand is not falling for it.”

Bangkok’s gradual re-engagement was no surprise, given Thailand’s generations-old relations with Myanmar’s military, said Htwe Htwe Thein, an associate professor of international business at Curtin University in Australia.
“In the bigger picture at the international level, the coup leader’s international position is still bleak,” the Myanmar specialist said. “Min Aung Hlaing remains largely a pariah on the world stage, courted by a small handful of governments, so any red-carpet moment is one he’ll seize eagerly.”
But as much of the country, including border areas, remains beyond the writ of Naypyidaw, the normality projected by the state visits would have little impact on Min Aung Hlaing’s image back home.
It doesn’t matter where Min Aung Hlaing goes overseas. We all know what he has done
May, a Myanmar worker in Bangkok
“The footage [of the Bangkok visit] will air back home … but people inside Myanmar aren’t limited to state media,” Htwe Htwe Thein said.
“They have social media, and they have other ways of finding out what’s really going on and what people outside Myanmar really think of the new government.”
According to the United Nations, over 16 million people in Myanmar require humanitarian aid. Several million have been internally displaced since the coup and millions more have fled overseas – most to neighbouring Thailand – to avoid conscription and find work.
“It doesn’t matter where Min Aung Hlaing goes overseas,” a Myanmar worker in Bangkok who wanted to be known only as May said. “We – the Myanmar people – all know what he has done.”


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Hated in Myanmar, feted abroad? President inches towards normality with Thailand trip

Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing leaves after delivering a speech in parliament on Friday. Photo: AP

Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul gives a speech during his visit to the Asean Secretariat in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Tuesday. Photo: Reuters

Myanmar edges out of isolation as Asean steps up engagement

Thailand’s Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow and his Myanmar counterpart U Tin Maung Swe attend talks on Saturday, a day before an informal meeting with Asean foreign ministers in Bangkok. Photo: Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs/AFP

Myanmar’s foreign minister, Tin Maung Swe, (far right) with his Asean counterparts at their informal meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, on Sunday. Photo: Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Reuters

Thailand’s Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow (right) meets his Myanmar counterpart U Tin Maung Swe on Saturday, a day before an informal meeting with Asean foreign ministers in Bangkok. Photo: Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs/AFP

Aung San Suu Kyi pictured in 2015. Myanmar’s deposed civilian leader is being kept under house arrest in the capital Naypyidaw. Photo: AFP

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) shakes hands with Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing before their meeting in New Delhi on June 1. Photo: EPA

Military personnel stand guard at the Thai-Myanmar border in Mae Sot, Thailand’s Tak province, as hundreds of refugees fleeing the fighting crossed over in April 2024. Photo: Reuters

East Timor’s Myanmar war crimes case puts Asean non-interference to the test

Fires destroy numerous buildings in the town of Thantlang in Chin state in northwest Myanmar, in December 2021. Photo: Chin Human Rights Organization via AP

East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta at the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore in May. Ramos-Horta has openly criticised Myanmar’s military rulers and regime. Photo: Reuters

Myanmar Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Hau Khan Sum attends the Asean Regional Forum in Pasay, Metro Manila, the Philippines on July 23. Photo: Pool via Reuters

Myanmar has ‘a mountain to climb’ to woo 2 million tourists a year

Tourists offer joss sticks at Myanmar’s Shwedagon Pagoda in Yangon in 2019. Photo: AP

A cocktail promoter serves free shots during the opening of the 19th Street Chinatown night market in Yangon on June 9. Photo: EPA

Members of ethnic minority armed group Ta’ang National Liberation Army stand guard in a temple area of a hill camp in Myanmar’s northern Shan state on December 12, 2023. Photo: AFP

Malaysia’s ‘shocking’ deal to return 5,000 Rohingya to Myanmar triggers refoulement fears

Rohingya refugees sit inside a truck as they are taken by police, in front of the office of the UN Refugee Agency, after being evicted from their homes, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on Monday. Photo: Reuters

Rohingya refugees inside a truck as they are taken by police, in front of the office of the UN Refugee Agency, after being evicted from their homes, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Monday. Photo: Reuters

Rohingya refugees gather in front of the office of the UN Refugee Agency after being evicted from their homes, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Monday. Photo: Reuters

An empty classroom at a school for Rohingya refugees that was forced to close amid a spike in online hate speech targeting the community, at Subang Jaya, Malaysia, on July 7. Photo: Reuters

‘Defanging’ Aung San: Myanmar’s generals wage war on memory

A woman walks past a statue of Myanmar’s independence hero Aung San at Thu Mingalar Park in Yangon on July 16. Photo: AFP

Myanmar’s President Min Aung Hlaing (right) and Lao counterpart Thongloun Sisoulith inspect a guard of honour during a welcoming ceremony in Vientiane on July 3. Photo: Myanmar’s Presidential Press and Information Bureau/AFP

Mourners grieve as bodies are laid out at a cemetery before their burial following a military air strike at a hospital that killed more than 30 people in Myanmar’s western Rakhine state in December. Photo: AFP

Girls parade with portraits of General Aung San during a pre-coup Martyrs’ Day ceremony in Yangon, Myanmar, in 2019. Photo: AFP

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Thailand’s acknowledgement of Min Aung Hlaing’s legitimacy stems from a ‘straight up pragmatism’, analysts say


Thailand’s acknowledgement of Min Aung Hlaing’s legitimacy stems from a ‘straight up pragmatism’, analysts say.


Hated in Myanmar, feted abroad? President inches towards normality with Thailand trip

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Thailand’s acknowledgement of Min Aung Hlaing’s legitimacy stems from a ‘straight up pragmatism’, analysts say

Thailand’s acknowledgement of Min Aung Hlaing’s legitimacy stems from a ‘straight up pragmatism’, analysts say