appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Park Chan-kyong

North Korea is rumoured to be sending tens of thousands more troops to Russia in support of its war in Ukraine, marking a deepening of the two countries’ defence ties and a major escalation of Pyongyang’s involvement in the conflict, if confirmed.
Late on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that preparations had been under way in Russia’s Voronezh region to receive another 30,000 North Korean troops since last month.
He also claimed Pyongyang was planning to send additional missile launchers to support Moscow’s military campaign.
“This is quite a plausible claim,” said Oh Gyeong-seob, a North Korea-focused political scientist and senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “It would be a win-win deal for both countries.”
It would be a win-win deal for both countries
Oh Gyeong-seob, political scientist
A steady stream of cheap frontline troops from North Korea offered Russia “a cost-effective way to recruit soldiers”, Oh said, “while Pyongyang receives money and military technology in return”.
An estimated 14,000 North Korean soldiers and thousands of additional military engineers were first sent to Russia’s Kursk region in late 2024 in support of Moscow’s war effort. Pyongyang confirmed the deployment in April last year.
Current estimates suggest the number of North Korean frontline forces remains at similar levels today.
Oh said Russia’s pool of willing recruits had shrunk as the war – launched in February 2022 – ground past four years and five months, making North Korean manpower an increasingly attractive stopgap solution.

Estimates of the death toll vary, but Western intelligence assessments claimed in May that nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or injured.
In January, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank put the Russian military death toll at around 325,000, out of some 1.2 million casualties since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Zelensky said on Saturday that preparations for the latest North Korean deployment had been detected in the Voronezh region from June. The border area lies close to the war’s front lines and has been a frequent target of Ukrainian drones and missile strikes.
“This is a threat not only to Ukraine,” the Ukrainian president warned in his nightly address, “but to everyone in Asia within range of North Korean missiles”.
“Russia is helping North Korea learn how to wage war, improve its weapons and gain real combat experience in using them,” he added.


Trading troops for tech
North Korea maintains one of the largest standing armies in the world, with an estimated 1.2 million soldiers on active duty.
Oh said the deployment of an additional 30,000 troops to Russia “would be an attractive proposal” for Pyongyang as it offered them valuable battlefield experience, adding that North Korea had long struggled to maintain its massive military while also pouring scarce resources into its nuclear weapons and missile programmes.
Zelensky’s remarks at the weekend followed a four-day visit to Moscow by North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, who met both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
“The two sides could have discussed pending alliance issues, including additional support for Russia’s war effort,” Oh said, noting speculation that it might have also laid the groundwork for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to visit Moscow.

Putin invited Kim to Moscow during the Russian president’s own visit to Pyongyang in June 2024, when the two signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that forms the basis of their military cooperation.
Another deployment would likely be justified under that treaty’s mutual defence clause, according to Lim Eul-chul, a professor of North Korean studies at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies.
“North Korea could exploit global geopolitical instability to further entrench its status as a de facto nuclear weapons state while accelerating military modernisation through transfers of advanced Russian military technology,” he said, citing the benefits of exposure to drone warfare, modern battlefield intelligence and satellite systems for a military that had spent decades in relative technological isolation.

For Russia, meanwhile, North Korean boots on the ground offer a way to reinforce depleted ranks without risking the domestic political backlash that another large-scale mobilisation could invite.
Lim added that North Korea had dramatically ramped up production in recent months of its solid-fuelled, road-mobile short-range ballistic missile systems – known as KN-23 and KN-24, or Hwasong-11A and Hwasong-11B – and “now appears to have sufficient capacity not only to equip its own military but also to continue manufacturing and supplying weapons for export to Russia”.
Raising the risks
The rumoured deployment of more North Korean troops is not without its risks, however.
Heavy losses could become a domestic issue for Pyongyang and raise the odds of defections or captures – despite reports that troops have been ordered to avoid capture at all costs.
Lim also highlighted the risks of North Korean special forces suffering a lasting blow, unwanted information seeping back into the isolated state as a result of Ukrainian and Western psychological operations, and the psychological effects of war.
“Soldiers returning from high-intensity warfare dominated by drones and advanced firepower may suffer combat trauma and struggle to readjust, potentially creating instability within the military,” Lim said.


Heavy North Korean casualties or the lack of a decisive Russian victory could also weaken Kim’s “leadership and the legitimacy of his decision to deploy troops”, he added.
Not all analysts are convinced that a second wave of frontline North Korean troops is imminent.
Yang Uk, a defence analyst and research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said Pyongyang might consider its obligations under the defence treaty already met, having helped Russia reclaim much of the Kursk region.
He suggested that North Korean troops might instead be used to operate long-range artillery and missile systems from Russian soil, or to handle rear-area security, in exchange for Moscow providing advance military technology.
Lim said the deployment would “serve as a warning” to the US, South Korea and Japan and was also “intended to signal that Russia could intervene immediately in the event of a contingency on the Korean peninsula”.
A North Korean military seasoned “with extensive modern combat experience and backed by advanced Russian military technology” would pose a markedly greater threat to regional security, he added.
South Korea, which has condemned the invasion of Ukraine and joined international sanctions against Russia, has since been labelled an “unfriendly country” by the Kremlin.
Its support for Kyiv has been limited to humanitarian assistance and non-lethal military equipment, however, as it seeks to avoid direct confrontation with Russia while standing with Western allies and partners.
South Korean officials have previously voiced their concerns about Russia repaying North Korea’s military support with transfers of advanced missile, drone and submarine propulsion technologies to enhance Pyongyang’s military capabilities.


Suspected landmine blast injures South Korean soldiers in DMZ

New North Korea-Russia bridge delivers a powerful message to China

North Korea fires 2 missiles in 3 hours amid tensions over US drills

Analysts tip a stronger hand for China ahead of Xi-Trump summit in Washington

North Korea

North Korea sending 30,000 troops to Russia is a ‘win-win’: analysts

North Korean soldiers march in a military parade at Pyongyang’s Kim Il-Sung Square in February. Photo: KCNA/KNS/AFP

A still image taken from a video provided by the Russian Defence Ministry on July 23 shows a Russian serviceman launching an attack drone at an undisclosed location in Ukraine. Photo: Russia Defence Ministry/EPA

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands during the signing ceremony for the strategic partnership in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024. Photo: Sputnik/Kremlin/AP

A still image taken from a handout video shows a Russian 220mm heavy multiple launch rocket system firing at an undisclosed location in Ukraine. Photo: Russia Defence Ministry/EPA

North Korea paves way for possible Kim trip to Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui shake hands during their meeting in Moscow on Sunday. Photo: Kremlin/Sputnik/EPA

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un embraces injured soldiers after their return from deployment in Russia’s Kursk region in December. Photo: KCNA/KNS/AFP

A launcher fires a tactical ballistic missile during weapons tests overseen by Kim Jong-un in North Korea last month. Photo: KCNA/Reuters

North Korea’s Kim fires warning shot at own military with corruption purge

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks at a committee meeting of the Workers’ Party of Korea in Pyongyang last month. Photo: KCNA/Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signs documents during a meeting of the ruling party’s Central Military Commission on Thursday. Photo: KCNA/EPA

Kim Jong-un presides over a meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea’s Central Military Commission in Pyongyang on Thursday. Photo: KCNA/KNS/AFP 

People in Seoul watch a televised news report on December 12, 2013 showing Jang Song-thaek in court before his execution. Photo: AFP

Korean People’s Army soldiers bow before the statues of late North Korean leaders Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il at Mansu Hill in Pyongyang on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

This Week in Asia

Politics

News

Asia

East Asia

Moscow gets more soldiers without risking another mass mobilisation, Pyongyang receives money and military tech


Moscow gets more soldiers without risking another mass mobilisation, Pyongyang receives money and military tech.


North Korea sending 30,000 troops to Russia is a ‘win-win’: analysts

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Moscow gets more soldiers without risking another mass mobilisation, Pyongyang receives money and military tech

Moscow gets more soldiers without risking another mass mobilisation, Pyongyang receives money and military tech