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Julian Ryall

Canada’s decision to join the next-generation Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) as an observer has eased Tokyo’s fears over its fighter jet future, while Germany is also reported to be exploring membership of the project, which already involves Britain, Italy and Japan.
The moves could give fresh momentum to GCAP, a programme to develop a next-generation fighter that analysts say Japan sees as critical to replacing its ageing F-2 fleet and avoiding a gap in its air defences.
Tokyo has been frustrated in recent months by what observers describe as London dragging its feet on the fighter due to defence funding shortfalls, a delay that could push back the project for several years.
While the aircraft’s introduction mattered less to Britain, given its existing air capabilities, analysts said any postponement in deployment could leave a significant gap in Japan’s defences.
Besides giving the programme fresh impetus, the arrival of additional partners has also underlined how other Nato member states and like-minded Indo-Pacific nations view US President Donald Trump’s administration as an unreliable defence partner, with new military partnerships being struck as a result.

“Tokyo is going to feel more supported on the project and optimistic that it is going to get off the ground,” said William Yang, a Taiwan-based analyst for the International Crisis Group.
“For the longest time, Japan’s defence has largely depended on its alliance and treaty relationships with the US. But now, with the US industrial base clogged up because of the Iran conflict, Japan has started to reach out on its defence policy and is clearly moving towards being more self-sufficient.”
That has pushed non-US members of the transatlantic security alliance and the “Indo-Pacific Four” – Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand – towards closer defence collaboration.
Canada announced it join GCAP as an observer after a meeting on Tuesday in London between defence ministers of the four nations.
“This announcement marks an important step in strengthening cooperation among trusted, like-minded partners through the programme,” the ministers said in a joint statement.
The Daily Telegraph reported the following day that the head of Airbus’ Munich-based defence division had indicated at the UK’s Farnborough Air Show that his company should also join the project.
“What we’re ready to do is to join something or to build something where we have a significant portion of the work and the leadership. That’s currently being explored,” Michael Schoellhorn told the paper.
Germany’s need for a new fighter became more acute after it pulled out of the joint Future Combat Air System project with France amid a dispute over the division of work.

Yang said that the non-US members of Nato and their Asia-Pacific partners should arguably have recognised the dramatic change in Washington’s attitude towards shared defence much sooner, and started implementing contingency plans earlier.
Joining GCAP was a good first step, he said.
“This helps strengthen Eurasian defence cooperation and allows Japan to benefit from some of the technology that European Nato states can provide. And it will be a starting point for greater cooperation,” Yang said.
“I see GCAP as the pilot project for much broader defence cooperation without US involvement. Potentially, it could play a major role in advancing this global trend for integration.”
Stephen Nagy, a professor of international relations at Tokyo’s International Christian University, agreed that having more GCAP contributors fit a “broader pattern of Japan diversifying its defence partners at a time when the US is becoming more unreliable”.
While Japan still intended to “keep the US as close as possible”, he said the decisions of its mercurial leadership were difficult to predict with any certainty.
According to Nagy, the Trump administration could use Japan’s new weapons development deals and rising defence spending as grounds to reduce its own military commitment in the western Pacific – or it could applaud the increased spending as vindication of the pressure exerted on its allies to increase their outlays and continue its commitments regardless.
Nagy sees Japan’s outreach less as a hedge against US abandonment and more as an effort to balance against the threat posed by China.
“Japan is seeking a coalition of like-minded states against China, but it has no choice but to rely on the US to achieve that,” he said. “Japan is trying to build capacity but the US remains the anchor in the region because they still need the US to deal with China, Russia and North Korea.”
The world had moved into a period of “great power politics and the militarisation of the entire region is accelerating”, he said.


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Analysts say the move will be ‘a starting point’ for greater cooperation among like-minded partners amid concerns about US commitment


Analysts say the move will be ‘a starting point’ for greater cooperation among like-minded partners amid concerns about US commitment.


Why Japan’s fighter jet future looks ‘more optimistic’ with Canada’s entry

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say the move will be ‘a starting point’ for greater cooperation among like-minded partners amid concerns about US commitment

Analysts say the move will be ‘a starting point’ for greater cooperation among like-minded partners amid concerns about US commitment