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Tom Hussain

The future of energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz hangs in the balance after negotiations between Iran and the United States in Doha this week ended without an agreement on releasing frozen funds to the Islamic Republic.
With Tehran also failing to begin demining the strait, and still threatening to attack ships attempting to leave the Gulf without its permission, neither side has yet met the two key obligations under their June 17 memorandum of understanding (MOU) to freeze the conflict launched by the US and Israel on February 28.
Until they do, definitive negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme will not proceed, according to the phased steps envisioned by the MOU.
Iran has also warned France and the United Kingdom, which are leading a multinational effort to demine the strait, to keep the European naval ships gathering in the adjacent Arabian Sea at bay, rendering any such operation to reopen the strategic waterway unfeasible unless Tehran changes tack.
Iran rejected an announcement on June 28 of an agreement between France and Oman, which administers the southern Hormuz strait, to collaborate on clearing mines from the waterway. Such operations would “exclusively” be carried out by Iranian forces, Tehran warned.
Similarly, Iranian attacks on ships trying to exit the strait under an initiative launched by the UN’s International Maritime Organisation (IMO) on June 24 forced its suspension within a day, leaving some 600 vessels and their 11,000 crew members still stranded.

Analysts said some ships continued to make their way out via Omani waters by turning off their automated identification system (AIS) to evade detection by Iranian forces – a risky tactic made more dangerous by the loss of navigational assistance from local authorities in shallow waters, rendering vessels susceptible to running aground.
Despite the cessation of hostilities, Iran’s grip on maritime traffic through the strait remained both “real” and “strong”, analysts say.
“The Guardians’ coastal forces are powerful and diverse, even though the Americans have inflicted substantial losses upon them,” said Stephane Audrand, founder of the Paris-based risk consultancy Sylmaris and an associate research fellow at the French Institute of International Relations.
“Above all”, he emphasised, mine clearance “is not an operation that can be carried out by force alone. One must first neutralise the opposition before clearing mines, or else secure Iran’s cooperation”.
Tehran, however, knows there is “no appetite in Europe for a conflict with Iran” because it is “something beyond our military or political means, and which would appear to legitimise” US President Donald Trump’s military intervention against Iran.
Audrand said the Franco-British demining initiative served to “hold the ground” diplomatically and represented “a useful offer should Iran accept it”, although that was not currently its intention.
But in such circumstances, non-European signatories of the France-UK indicative remain hesitant to deploy ships until their safety is internationally guaranteed.
Asian members Japan and South Korea, for instance, have already indicated they are unlikely to send demining vessels to join the multinational flotilla unless an end to the US-Iran war is formally declared.

According to Nitya Labh, an expert on maritime and boundary disputes and international security fellow at the British think tank Chatham House, Iran retains the ability to disrupt shipping using cheap drones and missiles, despite Washington’s destruction of its military capabilities.
“These capabilities can be replenished quickly and easily,” Labh said, noting that “even the threat of closure alone is enough to create confusion and disrupt shipping”.
The same is true of Iran’s sea mines which can be “laid cheaply without technical expertise”.
According to Labh, current analysis suggests Iran has deployed only about 80 mines out of its estimated pre-war stock of 5,000-6,000 mines, mostly manufactured domestically, and has retained about 80-90 per cent of its mining capabilities.
“Whether through threats, strikes or mines, Iran retains the ability to re-block and continue shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in the future,” Labh said.
While ships are still running the gauntlet with their AIS switched off, sometimes in convoys arranged by private security firms, “neither of these workarounds are scalable to restore shipping through the strait”, she said.
Labh described demining as a “slow and methodical process” requiring advanced capabilities, highly trained personnel and sustained political support.
“Realistically, neither the US nor Iran has the capabilities – or trust – to demine the strait alone,” she said.
The most efficient option would be to allow multiple countries to divide demining tasks and share their capabilities to conduct a larger operation across the strait.

Labh said there would also need to be guarantees that Iran would not place mines in the strait again, and that both Tehran and Washington would have to “commit to a cessation of hostilities for long enough that the demining could take place” over multiple weeks or months.
“We have not seen a long enough pause in violence throughout this conflict to suggest that this could happen yet,” Labh said.
As a confidence-building first step in that direction, French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested the multinational demining force begin its operations in the Gulf of Oman, to the east of Hormuz.
But there are no reports of Iranian mines being laid in the Gulf of Oman, and clearance in the area would only serve to allow demining ships to prepare for future operations closer to the strait, Labh said.
However, Tehran may see the growing presence of demining ships there as a violation of the MOU or a threat to its current negotiating position, and be inclined to strike these vessels if they are seen to breach its stated terms.
“That would be a larger escalation that should be avoided,” Labh said, warning that demining ships in the Gulf of Oman could destabilise current negotiations, similar to the attempted IMO evacuation corridor efforts.
“Ultimately, demining the Gulf of Oman is not about removing mines, it is about positioning ships close enough to Hormuz to prepare for a future mission to reopen the strait,” Labh said. “This makes sense tactically, but could be politically sensitive.”


For the time being, Audrand said shipowners and the insurers they relied upon were taking “a wait-and-see approach”.
“The most urgent priority is to get all the vessels trapped in the Gulf out, which justifies taking certain risks,” he said.
Beyond that, the current approach appears to depend on the specific shipowners and countries involved. “There is no single, uniform response,” Audrand added.
Some nations, such as regional transshipment hub the United Arab Emirates, were expected to shoulder the cost of some form of war-risk insurance to facilitate transit through Hormuz, much like Ukraine did for Black Sea shipping after 2024, he said.
Meanwhile, many players in the shipping industry will “resign themselves” to paying Iran’s proposed service charges to safely navigate Hormuz, thereby setting a precedent.
This would, in the longer term, motivate the Gulf monarchies to shift their maritime trade focus towards the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, “thereby diminishing the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz”, Audrand said.


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Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on Wednesday. Photo: Reuters

A frame grab of footage aired on Wednesday by Iranian state television shows a vessel that ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: Iranian state television via AP

Oil tankers and cargo vessels remain anchored off Port Sultan Qaboos on June 21 in Muscat, Oman. Photo: TNS

French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested the multinational demining force begin its operations in the Gulf of Oman. Photo: Pool via AP

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Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz near Musandam, Oman, last month. Photo: Reuters

People walk near an anti-US mural in Tehran, Iran, on Tuesday. Photo:  West Asia News Agency via Reuters

A US airbase in Paphos, Cyprus. Photo: AP

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Ships are seen in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on Tuesday. Photo: ISNA/WANA/Reuters

A house burns in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Tuesday after a Russian strike. Photo: AP 

A man fills his motorcycle with fuel at a petrol station in Selangor, Malaysia, last month. Photo: EPA

A person points to a screen displaying vessel movements in the Strait of Hormuz in May. Photo: AFP

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (left) on the sidelines of a Russia-Asean Summit in Kazan on June 17. Photo: Kremlin/Sputnik/EPA

A crane loads a container onto a ship at the Pasir Panjang port terminal in Singapore. Photo: AFP

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Captain Raman Kapoor, who was stranded in the Persian Gulf for 75 days, seen in a still from a video he made while trapped. Photo: Handout

Vessels are seen anchored last month off the coast of Sharjah in the Persian Gulf, north of the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: AFP

Missile contrails are seen in the sky above Captain Raman Kapoor’s vessel amid the US-Israel war on Iran. Photo: Handout

Captain Cheah Sin Bi, CEO of Malaysian tanker operator Orkim, was a young officer in the Gulf during the Iraq war. Photo: Ushar Daniele

A vessel is seen listing to one side after apparently being struck by a missile or mine in the Persian Gulf, as seen from Captain Raman Kapoor’s tanker. Photo: Handout

Captain Kapoor pictured with his family. Photo: Handout

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Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on Tuesday. Photo: Reuters

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Iran’s grip on maritime traffic through the strait remains both ‘real’ and ‘strong’ even amid the cessation in hostilities, analysts say


Iran’s grip on maritime traffic through the strait remains both ‘real’ and ‘strong’ even amid the cessation in hostilities, analysts say.


Minefields, stalled talks keep Strait of Hormuz in strategic limbo

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Iran’s grip on maritime traffic through the strait remains both ‘real’ and ‘strong’ even amid the cessation in hostilities, analysts say

Iran’s grip on maritime traffic through the strait remains both ‘real’ and ‘strong’ even amid the cessation in hostilities, analysts say