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Maria Siow

A summit between Russia and Asean next week promises to ease Southeast Asia’s energy crisis and Moscow’s diplomatic isolation – but not all of the bloc’s leaders are expected to show up.
Analysts are also divided on whether Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, the current Asean chair, will travel to Kazan for the meeting, hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 17–18.
The summit marks the 35th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Russia. The two sides held their first summit in Kuala Lumpur in 2005; the last time it took place on Russian soil was in Sochi in 2016.

Late last month, Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro said that she and Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov had spoken by phone about the event and discussed “the prospects of expanding Russia’s strategic partnership” with Asean.
The Philippines has yet to confirm whether Marcos will attend, though Lazaro did earlier indicate that both leaders would meet.
Writing on the Russian Foreign Ministry website over the weekend, Lavrov said Moscow “looks forward to welcoming in Kazan the heads of all Asean member states”, singling out Marcos in particular.
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, said competing pressures weighed on Manila. “Despite the acute energy deficit, which makes improved ties with Russia sensible, Manila’s deepening security ties with the US and Japan may be a factor to consider,” he said.

Noting that US allies Japan and South Korea already sourced oil from Russia, Pitlo said the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore, among others, might use that precedent to justify expanding imports from Moscow – “especially if the US does not step in to offset supplies from West Asia”.
For nearly four months now, global energy supplies have been severely disrupted by the US-Israel war on Iran and near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of the world’s petroleum and liquefied natural gas flowed before the conflict.
“Russia may use the energy lifeline to expand its oil and gas exports beyond China and alleviate its diplomatic isolation by growing ties with Asean,” Pitlo said.

Joanne Lin Weiling, senior fellow and coordinator at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s Asean Studies Centre, said member states were likely to “calibrate” their attendance according to “national interests, domestic politics and external alignments”.
Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s attendance remained uncertain given the city state’s sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war, she said. Beyond financial sanctions, Singapore has also imposed export controls and provided a platform for Ukrainian leaders to build diplomatic support.
Myanmar’s representation would also be “politically sensitive”, she said, given Asean’s position on its military-backed government, whose leaders are barred from top-level bloc meetings after repeatedly failing to implement a five-point peace plan.
Lin described talk of expanding Russia’s strategic partnership with Asean as “aspirational diplomatic packaging more than evidence of a strategic pivot”, with real progress likely to be “practical and incremental” – such as the adoption of a new Asean-Russia Comprehensive Plan of Action for 2026-30.
Russia needs Asean more than Asean needs Russia right now
Joanne Lin Weiling, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute analyst
“For most in Asean, the benefit of keeping ties with Russia is not only about strategic neutrality but it helps to preserve manoeuvring room,” Lin said, noting Russia’s relevance in energy, fertilisers, food security and nuclear and space technology for countries with long-standing ties to Moscow.
For Russia, the summit could help to demonstrate that Moscow still had “standing” in the Global South, Lin said. “Russia needs Asean more than Asean needs Russia right now,” she said, giving the bloc a degree of leverage – though secondary sanctions and the unresolved war in Ukraine could “cap how far this relationship can credibly go”.
Ian Storey, principal fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and author of Putin’s Russia and Southeast Asia, said Moscow had specifically requested the summit be held on Russian soil rather than in the Philippines, a US ally.
“Despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, there was consensus within Asean that the meeting should take place,” he said.


While Putin would likely offer to bolster Southeast Asia’s energy security, any deals would need to be “negotiated on a bilateral basis rather than with Asean as a bloc”, Storey said, adding that though Marcos had been critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Philippines needed oil and Russia “can partly fulfil that need”.
Asean and Russia might also use the summit to upgrade their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, Storey said. But “the substance of the relationship is still very thin, especially trade and investment ties”, he added.
Asean’s total annual trade exceeds US$3 trillion, but bilateral trade with Russia stands at no more than US$26 billion – less than 1 per cent of the bloc’s total global trade. By comparison, Asean’s trade with China exceeds US$720 billion.


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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s attendance in Kazan has yet to be confirmed. Photo: Reuters

Russian servicemen take part in a military parade in Kazan last month marking the 81st anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany during World War II. Photo: Tass/Zuma Press/dpa

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Singapore’s Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing (centre) with representatives from 16 partner countries during the launch of the Guiding Principles for Underwater Infrastructure Defence Exchanges at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Saturday. Photo: Singapore’s Ministry of Defence

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Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (left) and Alexei Overchuk, deputy prime minister of Russia, during a meeting as part of the Asean summit in Kuala Lumpur on Monday. Photo: dpa

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Southeast Asia needs energy. Russia needs friends. Next week’s summit in Kazan could offer opportunities for both sides


Southeast Asia needs energy. Russia needs friends. Next week’s summit in Kazan could offer opportunities for both sides.


As Putin courts Southeast Asia, does ‘Russia need Asean more’?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Southeast Asia needs energy. Russia needs friends. Next week’s summit in Kazan could offer opportunities for both sides

Southeast Asia needs energy. Russia needs friends. Next week’s summit in Kazan could offer opportunities for both sides